Ji Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Are we still going with the weenie hail Mary classic: "poorly sampled shortwave moving in from the NPAC"?As jb says....until all the players are out on the field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, osfan24 said: The GFS snowfall map also has more of a east-west orientation than more southwest-northeast, which I think just shows how much the confluence is really pressing down. Not a good sign. Yeah there is just no mechanism to get that low to move NE, or ENE. Its likely going to be heading SE as it exits the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Are we still going with the weenie hail Mary classic: "poorly sampled shortwave moving in from the NPAC"? As jb says....until all the players are out on the field The players have been out on the field, and maintaining their positions, like a vanilla, predictable NFL defense. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 The players have been out on the field, and maintaining their positions, like a vanilla, predictable NFL defense.Lol the models have gotten too good. We haven't seen a shift in 4 days since we lost our 1-2 feet smh 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: The players have been out on the field, and maintaining their positions, like a vanilla, predictable NFL defense. Lol the models have gotten too good. We haven't seen a shift in 4 days since we lost our 1-2 feet smh Yeah this one is about done. My brother in NC will get 8-12 inches so good for him. At least half of this subforum has already had a decent storm (not me) but it is what it is. The real epic-ness is yet to come. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Yeah this one is about done. My brother in NC will get 8-12 inches so good for him. At least half of this subforum has already had a decent storm (not me) but it is what it is. The real epic-ness is yet to come.Check out the gfs next weekend. We just need some more confluence! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah this one is about done. My brother in NC will get 8-12 inches so good for him. At least half of this subforum has already had a decent storm (not me) but it is what it is. The real epic-ness is yet to come. Pretty amazing precision by the models honing in on western NC jackpot for several days. The ensembles bounced around up here in terms of the snowfall mean (seemed like a ping pong match as each model run came out) but as I think about it more, that was due to two camps that wobbled back and forth until they settled on a southern storm. We'll get ours soon enough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah this one is about done. My brother in NC will get 8-12 inches so good for him. At least half of this subforum has already had a decent storm (not me) but it is what it is. The real epic-ness is yet to come. Check out the gfs next weekend. We just need some more confluence! LOL I was one who was arguing for confluence for this storm a few days ago. Too much of a "good" thing this time. But many times it is exactly what we need. Of course the position and strength has to be just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 41 minutes ago, Ji said: 45 minutes ago, BTRWx said: No change from fv3 from NCEP. Not looking good. Wont be till 0z till big changes Boy i hope you know something we don't, but i have to say that while i have been an advocate for the northern trend, just not seeing enough wobble to see that happening. That NS energy has been far too consistent to see enough notable changes happen. If you have a voodo doll...i'll send you more pins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 We have 72 hours till game time and the JMA on our side. NAM coming into range at 0z. It’s a stretch but I’m holding on for one more big shift north. That hammer up north needs to RELAX 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 JMA is always first to shift. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 hour ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Agreed. The GFS was jumpy and showed some major hits early on but over the last 48 hours or so has been pretty steady eddy. I declared this storm dead for the Baltimore area on my weather page earlier today Yea, I agree too. I find it pretty interesting too that the GFS (and most globals) in general seem to do better in the mid/long range when the northern features (strong NAO, AO, etc) are on one side of the bell curve or the other. It makes sense: the more stable the input the more repeatable the output. But what’s interesting is the northern component to the consistency. In this case, my opinion is the only mechanisms of increase for northward movement would be driven by a)not currently modeled relaxation in confluence, b) well timed piece of energy embedded in northern flow exiting at a favorable moment which could lift the barolocnic zone between the approaching SW and NS (which in essence is a relaxation in confluence), c)not currently modeled amplification of the SW which of course, has a cap to how much it can deepen. I give dc metro a 20% chance of dusting-1” which would be pretty sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingJWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 18z GEFS cut back further. Mean QPF down to: IAD, 0.04" BWI, 0.02" CHO, 0.20" RIC, 0.58" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Update for you all from DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 12 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: Update for you all from DT bold for Ric Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I like DT's map. Like I said earlier I think 66 will end up the cutoff. he has some high totals in RIC area that could bust. But overall a good map IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 17 minutes ago, Ji said: bold for Ric Bold for me...1-2”...ya lets see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Bold for me...1-2”...ya lets see. I'm ready to gas up the new snow blower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I do think it bold. 4-8 for me in Charlottesville seems high. but yes we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inthepines Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 33 minutes ago, Ji said: bold for Ric 46 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: Update for you all from DT I can just about guarantee Asheville won’t see 18 inches. They only reached it in the 93 superstorm with a far more favorable setup. Just moved back to dc after living there for a couple years. Downsloping always hurts there. The mountains around Asheville will get hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 20 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Bold for me...1-2”...ya lets see. I’m going with 2-4. Catch a little northern edge banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Inthepines said: I can just about guarantee Asheville won’t see 18 inches. They only reached it in the 93 superstorm with a far more favorable setup. Just moved back to dc after living there for a couple years. Downsloping always hurts there. The mountains around Asheville will get hammered So how much snow are you forecasting for Asheville? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 18z EPS precip shifted about 25 miles north. 0.1” is in Southern FFX county. I’m holding on until the bitter end. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: I’m going with 2-4. Catch a little northern edge banding. Sure. It’s all on the table. I think I will be looking at clouds heavy at times high 37 winds NNE at 3..then later that night decreasing clouds heavy at times low 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, nj2va said: 18z EPS precip shifted about 25 miles north. 0.1” is in Southern FFX county. I’m holding on until the bitter end. 25 miles every 6 hours and we will shoveling a HECS in Monday. Or snowblowing for that matter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: 18z EPS precip shifted about 25 miles north. 0.1” is in Southern FFX county. I’m holding on until the bitter end. So 1-2 inches if SRs are good lol Meh, just seeing a dusting would be nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Sure. It’s all on the table. I think I will be looking at clouds heavy at times high 37 winds NNE at 3..then later that night decreasing clouds heavy at times low 29 Maybe i should still be in golf mode. 37 with light wind would be nice conditions. I should probably book a round of golf which would pretty much guarantee a foot of snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inthepines Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 15 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: So how much snow are you forecasting for Asheville? Clearly less than 18 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 NAM much further north with the precip into Tennessee at 36 compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Might be inconsequential but northern stream kicker a bit further west at 36h on Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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