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December 9/10 Storm


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3 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

12z EPS cuts back even further for DC.  Went from 1/2 inch of snow at 0z to pityflakes at 12z.  

EPS is totally locked onto a S VA/NC major snowstorm. Looks like the high country of western NC is going to get nuked. The Triad should get hit pretty hard too. Not sure how much change is realistic at this point. Very little probably. Maybe a period of light snow/mix from lower S MD over towards SBY.

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9 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

DT really pushing stronger storm N snow shield  trend.. ESP in the Richmond Area... (per his facebook site)

his quote.. "Cutting edge stuff"

He compared the Euro from last night to the Euro today and it showed a more Northern turn

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1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

Man, what's going on to our northeast is a disaster that just keeps getting worse and worse.

I'm not sure that's where we should be looking.  The snow actually shifted substantially north in the 12z run compared to 00z, even though the trough over Canada dropped down.  I looked through some maps to figure out why, and I think it's related to he trough over the North Atlantic slowly trending north. 

grQzMJd.gif

I'm not sure the trend will continue, and the model consensus at this point doesn't look favorable.  But I think that might be a feature to watch in future runs.  (fwiw, I'm not too worried about the EPS though, as they'll start closely tracking the op around now.)

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1 minute ago, cae said:

I'm not sure that's where we should be looking.  The snow actually shifted substantially north in the 12z run compared to 00z, even though the trough over Canada dropped down.  I looked through some maps to figure out why, and I think it's related to he trough over the North Atlantic slowly trending north. 

grQzMJd.gif

I'm not sure the trend will continue, and the model consensus at this point doesn't look favorable.  But I think that might be a feature to watch in future runs.  (fwiw, I'm not too worried about the EPS though, as they'll start closely tracking the op around now.)

Others had the same thoughts. the H5 looked awful, that lobe being further south does us no favors, yet the precip shield ended up further north. who knows man... who knows lol

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9 minutes ago, cae said:

I'm not sure that's where we should be looking.  The snow actually shifted substantially north in the 12z run compared to 00z, even though the trough over Canada dropped down.  I looked through some maps to figure out why, and I think it's related to he trough over the North Atlantic slowly trending north. 

grQzMJd.gif

I'm not sure the trend will continue, and the model consensus at this point doesn't look favorable.  But I think that might be a feature to watch in future runs.  (fwiw, I'm not too worried about the EPS though, as they'll start closely tracking the op around now.)

Get rid of that lobe diving down from Hudson Bay and we would have been good. 

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Just now, yoda said:

I think that is because of the giant bowling ball at h5 that appears in the Plains at 78?

I think (not the best choice of words on here!) that there is a gap between the first NS SW at 57 in ME (a little less dig this run) and the ULL that drops in at 75 where heights rebound slightly to allow precip to advance north.  But that second lob rotating down hammers down and shuts it off.  Whew too much NAM talk, lol.

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Maybe a suggestion that people in Southern VA don't talk about how great things look in a forum dominated by people living between DC and MD-DE line when a model run doesn't even get precip into any part of MD. I don't remember this being an issue in previous years but it's been ridiculous with this storm. I'll see a post about how great the run looks and then go and look for myself and wonder what people are looking at.

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That's been the tension on this board forever. For as much as you say it's been a problem with this storm, Richmond and CVA folks have had to live with constant "I hope Richmond doesn't get anything" kind of posts and a board perspective that is always Beltway-MD centric when in reality it's the MA board and a large part of the population covered exists south of that area. It's all dumb because its just weather, but it does go both ways, and it does oftentimes make it tough for Va folks outside of the Beltway to really feel like this board covers us

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's the best run we've seen in 24 hours. Don't care which model it is. It's worth a hug until something better comes along. 

the JMA just came along. We are going to see huge changes at 00z. Wait till the ICon moves north 250 miles

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