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December 9/10 Storm


stormtracker
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8 minutes ago, yoda said:

Looks like the southern s/w is a bit sharper at 72 with slightly more negative tilt?  No?  Not that it will matter up here. ..but just checking to see if what I am seeing is wrong or right...

Slightly BUT... the problems are whats going on to the northeast... its still trending worse.  Ignore everything else and just look to our northeast...and look at the trend the last 72 hours... 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh96_trend.thumb.gif.2b5172d84e5d58219260a8ee4ee1164d.gif

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7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Oh? Then precip is responding differently because 500 looks crappy compared to yesterday’s crappy 12z run.

Yea the h5 looks a hot mess!  There have been marginal improvements in the precip shield today but the H5 look has actually continued to degrade away from what we want for more then conversational fringe snow IMO.  The issues over new england have only trended worse and the upper level situation in the midwest looks a mess.  

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Slightly BUT... the problems are whats going on to the northeast... its still trending worse.  Ignore everything else and just look to our northeast...and look at the trend the last 72 hours... 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh96_trend.thumb.gif.2b5172d84e5d58219260a8ee4ee1164d.gif

Man, what's going on to our northeast is a disaster that just keeps getting worse and worse.

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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Man, what's going on to our northeast is a disaster that just keeps getting worse and worse.

We needed the 50/50 and that lobe rotating around to trend weaker/north and it trended stronger/south. That simple.  Ironically given the improvements in other areas had that situation simply stayed the same as it looked 72 hours ago we might be in the game now... the storm has pretty much stayed where it was despite the issues up there because of a stronger stj wave and the typical correction towards a healthier precip shield on the north side.  But those changes cant save us because the confluence keeps trending south every run.  

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea the h5 looks a hot mess!  There have been marginal improvements in the precip shield today but the H5 look has actually continued to degrade away from what we want for more then conversational fringe snow IMO.  The issues over new england have only trended worse and the upper level situation in the midwest looks a mess.  

What could have saved it is the ridge axis out west.  It was looking decent at 72 and then shifts east which doesn't help the SS get grabbed by the trailing vort over the plains.  Its got no where to go with that look.

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We needed the 50/50 and that lobe rotating around to trend weaker/north and it trended stronger/south. That simple.  Ironically given the improvements in other areas had that situation simply stayed the same as it looked 72 hours ago we might be in the game now... the storm has pretty much stayed where it was despite the issues up there because of a stronger stj wave and the typical correction towards a healthier precip shield on the north side.  But those changes cant save us because the confluence keeps trending south every run.  

It is ironic how we thought that area to our north was so problematic a few days ago, but had we just kept that look combined with the other improvements, we would have been in solid shape.

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I think that confluence to the North has peaked and will slowly start retrograding back to the less suppressive look we saw a couple days ago. The question will then be if the s/w is potent enough tho gain latitude as it moves across theSouth. The game is on. But we are down 2 scores and the other team has the ball. We need a turnover to flip the momentum. Happy hour is our time. 

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If people are going to make predictions about future model runs, can they provide some reasoning or evidence to back it up? For less-knowledgeable folks like me, it comes across as just being a weenie in a Storm Mode thread.  We all hope the confluence is overdone and we all hope the precip shield is underdone, etc, but to predict that it has 'peaked' this run or will subside in future runs without providing any reasoning or evidence whatsoever is confusing to read alongside solid analysis by others.  Just my $0.02.

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