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December 9/10 Storm


stormtracker
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1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said:

00z suite will be the one to watch. Give it one more round before definitive.

Assuming there isn't a south trend and its still looking about as it is now...I wouldn't even totally check out after 0z.  God knows we have seen weirder things happen...but after tonight we would be heading into needing a January 2000 and March 2001 type bust territory.  

It's still close...but I really am not liking the trend in the flow over New England.  We need that to relax and it seems like its coming in stronger each run.  

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Reminder that the disturbance will finally move onshore on the west coast around 3-4am EST tonight/tomorrow morning. I'm not getting my hopes up for a major change to the forecast, but it will be interesting to see if there's any shifts either way once we get some observations fed into the models 

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1 minute ago, jackb979 said:

Reminder that the disturbance will finally move onshore on the west coast around 3-4am EST tonight/tomorrow morning. I'm not getting my hopes up for a major change to the forecast, but it will be interesting to see if there's any shifts either way once we get some observations fed into the models 

The STJ low pressure is well sampled so I wouldn't focus on it. Instead, the vort that is currently modeled to push the storm off the SE coast is just now in the area of the Arctic Ocean/Alaska. That area is data sparse. Even satellite data is limited due to the cold temperatures that can interfere with satellite data ingestion. This vort will be the focus....

gfs_pv330K_namer_1.png

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Just now, Snowchaser said:

QPF from the 06z Fv2 model run 0.01 in Washington, 12z run 0.09  went from a dusting to around 1 inch

QPF 06z Fv2 for Charlottesville 0.27, 12z run 0.47  went from around 3 inches to 5 inches 

QPF 06z run for Richmond 0.57, 12z run 0.59  snowfall stayed the same

 

 

 

Where did you get that info from?

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