stormtracker Posted December 8, 2018 Author Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, nj2va said: A lot of virga on the 3k NAM though. Total QPF for those hours over DC have yet to record anything. I’ll take some pity flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: You guy do realize that not one legit model gives us precip right? Even with all the north trends today You don't think the 3KNAM is a legit model within 24 hours onset? I am asking this seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: 3k nam at hr 27... Wow, it would not take much over the next 24 hours to put Nova and even DC into some good snow. Still probably not much north of that, but maybe some flakes or light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Virga or not the 3k nam is a decent north shift from its last two runs, no doubt about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 3k has the IR deform band in place. Radar will catch up at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Wow, it would not take much over the next 24 hours to put Nova and even DC into some good snow. Still probably not much north of that, but maybe some flakes or light snow. But as mentioned I think that’s virga? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, wawarriors4 said: And like 0.7” for mine, that’s a crazy shift Indeed. I’d be feeling pretty good if I was you at seeing at least a few inches based on trends today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I've gotta say, this is really thrilling to watch, even though it probably won't go all January 2010 on us. If anything, it shows that good north trends can happen, even if it isn't north enough for most of us this time. Hope it buries Richmond and Fredericksburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 3k has the IR deform band in place. Radar will catch up at 0z With that look, you'd think the storm would at least reach Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: You don't think the 3KNAM is a legit model within 24 hours onset? I am asking this seriously The 3K NAM has a whopping 0.0" of precipitation for anywhere north of Woodbridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Not quite there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 If these shifts had been happening yesterday then I'd probably still have hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, snjókoma said: The 3K NAM has a whopping 0.0" of precipitation for anywhere north of Woodbridge. It had 0.05” at EZF at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, snjókoma said: The 3K NAM has a whopping 0.0" of precipitation for anywhere north of Woodbridge. Don't worry. You'll be plastered in the .01 contour in 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 19 minutes ago, yoda said: Holy shnikes! I better make a toilet paper run ASAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Definitely one of the tightest zero to .50 gradients I've seen in these parts. Usually there's a pretty wide .1-.25 contour on the edge of the heavies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Weve made no progress day if your in northern virginia points north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: Weve made no progress day if your in northern virginia points north Dude, what are you talking about? We went from nothing to radar hallucinations overhead. That's yuuuuuge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2018 Author Share Posted December 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Weve made no progress day if your in northern virginia points north True. And we prob won’t make much at this point. It’s interesting to watch but I think we’re at peak norther Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: True. And we prob won’t make much at this point. It’s interesting to watch but I think we’re at peak norther See you at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 31 minutes ago, Ji said: You guy do realize that not one legit model gives us precip right? Even with all the north trends today The south move 2 days ago meant the typical 50-75 mile north trend at the end will just make this an epic tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ji said: Weve made no progress day if your in northern virginia points north to 're Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Definitely one of the tightest zero to .50 gradients I've seen in these parts. Usually there's a pretty wide .1-.25 contour on the edge of the heavies. Agreed. Wonder if that will spread out a bit. Cant help thinking that we’ve watched this time period for 3 weeks or more, tracked this storm for 10-12 days, and it’s going to be a MECS that we miss by a hundred miles or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Model trends are great for my area. Thicker cirrus means I can put away the SPF tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Courtesy of cranky on twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 hour ago, Wonderdog said: NWS now has 40% chance of snow tomorrow. Where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: Courtesy of cranky on twitter If that's what increase looks like then I've been doing it wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: Where? 50% chance snow from NWS for MBY in middle Calvert County. 40% tomorrow night. Hoping the percentages go up!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 18z RGEM still looks good... waiting on QPF total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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