Wonderdog Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Confluence is waning a bit I guess so who's to say it won't continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 8 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said: One last tug would definitely be a happy ending. I’m hoping the Happy hour NAM love me long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 The euro has the 0.2 line less than 40 miles from DC and the 0.6 line is approximately 75 miles from DC. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 100 more miles at 0z!?! Who’s with me???!! We’ve got 24 more hours to will this thing north... 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, WxUSAF said: 100 more miles at 0z!?! Who’s with me???!! We’ve got 24 more hours to will this thing north... How many more runs until advoisory level event haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 WPC maps clearly show the uncertainty. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Quick. Let’s put storm mode back 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: 100 more miles at 0z!?! Who’s with me???!! We’ve got 24 more hours to will this thing north... 18z will assuredly be the hour of power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, H2O said: Quick. Let’s put storm mode back Barometer 30.53 in (1033.7 mb) Too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 This shows it really nicely.... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 What's the record for north shifts? I heard back in the 1400's there was a 213 mile shift at the last minute...per Don S 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, H2O said: Quick. Let’s put storm mode back Banned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 This. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Had some flurries in Chesterfield this morning. Lasted all of 10 minutes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 This shows Ian's tweet a lil better... from one of our NYC brethren on twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 25 mile shift for happy hour. 50 more at 0z and then another 50 during game time. SECsy 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: What's the record for north shifts? I heard back in the 1400's there was a 213 mile shift at the last minute...per Don S https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=60&interval=60&year=2000&month=1&day=24&hour=0&minute=0 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 CMC pushes north, Euro trending north, HRDRPS is north, RGEM is north. Dang, even the GFS has been shifting north since 0z Euro is catching on to dynamics better -- Seriously think this will pivot -- snow up through Baltimore and possibly Philly. HOT sea surface temps off the coast...looking good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, yoda said: Banned I’m not even gonna say it seriously though, EPS is soon right?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I miss Scud, since he would be giving us essential bits of wisdom and insight, like "watch the storm" All joking aside, the high to our north being over-modeled at range has been a blessing. The storm isn't trending north, really. The models are just catching up to the way it was always going to unfold. I hope everyone in this subforum gets in on the game! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 10 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: I’m not even gonna say it seriously though, EPS is soon right?? A little late in the game for ensembles, isn't it? 20 or so hours until onset of precip here, according to many of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 It begins URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 205 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018 VAZ025-036-037-508-090315- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0007.181209T1100Z-181210T0500Z/ Augusta-Nelson-Albemarle-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- 205 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Snowfall accumulations of 5 inches or more possible. * WHERE...Augusta, Nelson and Albemarle Counties, and the central Virginia Blue Ridge. * WHEN...From Sunday morning through Sunday evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...If this threat materializes, travel could be very difficult or nearly impossible. There will be a tight gradient between very little to no snow to the north and more significant amounts of several inches to the south, with any subtle shift in track resulting in possibly significant variations in snowfall over relatively short distances. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Lord, please let happy hour be just exactly that!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 13 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: A little late in the game for ensembles, isn't it? 20 or so hours until onset of precip here, according to many of the models. You’re right it is. Just searching for any trend. But yea a litt close in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Eps further north also 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 PSU nailed this. We had those few days where the heaviest axis shifted south instead of staying put, and now the expected north trend isn't likely to be enough to put us in the game. DC and south it could make a difference though, in some cases a big difference. Hope it pans out for all of you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Not to get too IMBY, but I'm very schocked that we don't at least have an advisory up for Chesterfield County down this way near RIC with the latest trends on the weather models. They just put up warnings for counties just to the South and West. I guess they aren't buying the North trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, PivotPoint said: You’re right it is. Just searching for any trend. But yea a litt close in The north trend noted in forecast discussion: Perhaps the most notable and significant feature affecting the upcoming system is a compact shortwave diving southeast from the Hudson Bay vicinity. This shortwave is rotating around a larger cyclonic gyre centered over southeastern Canada near 60 W. This upper pattern has acted to enhance confluence over northern New England southward toward the Mid-Atlantic, which is resulting in the more west to east low track out to sea to our south. However, this shortwave feature to the north has appeared to deepen a bit more than forecast over the last 12-24 hours, resulting in subsequent subtle downstream height rises. It`s not much, but it appears it may be just enough to weaken the confluence near and to our north a touch, allowing a northward shift in the tight northern edge of the snowfall from low pressure passing to our south. As such, 12z guidance has unanimously shifted northward. Mean QPF from model output has risen to nearly an inch at the southern most reaches of our CWA (southern Nelson County), and just under a half inch near CHO. The northern edge of accumulating snow remains a challenge, but there is a non- zero/increasing chance for flurries or a light coating of snow as far north as I-66/US-50, in line with the northern edge of a baroclinic leaf developing upstream on satellite (marking the northern edge of stronger synoptic upward motion). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 12z EPS is farther north 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said: Not to get too IMBY, but I'm very schocked that we don't at least have an advisory up for Chesterfield County down this way near RIC with the latest trends on the weather models. They just put up warnings for counties just to the South and West. I guess they aren't buying the North trend? I’d expect ABQ to expand WWA/Watch this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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