December 9/10 Storm

[showmethesnow]

Late in the game for ensembles but I will note we saw a slight shift north of the precip on the overnight EPS. Slightly under a quarter of the members now place DC in the extreme outer edges of the precip field. Also seeing a slightly quicker relax of the initial confluence to the NE as well as slightly weaker high pressures to our north.

[CAPE]

28 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Late in the game for ensembles but I will note we saw a slight shift north of the precip on the overnight EPS. Slightly under a quarter of the members now place DC in the extreme outer edges of the precip field. Also seeing a slightly quicker relax of the initial confluence to the NE as well as slightly weaker high pressures to our north.

Even with somewhat weaker/retreating HP to our north, the air is pretty dry. I would question whether any of that light precip on the northern fringe would even make it to the ground- weak lift/sinking air from the High would suggest the ground truth would be far less "impressive" than it appears on (some) guidance.

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Even with somewhat weaker/retreating HP to our north, the air is pretty dry. I would question whether any of that light precip on the northern fringe would even make it to the ground- weak lift/sinking air from the High would suggest the ground truth would be far less "impressive" than it appears on (some) guidance.

Just hunting for positives here for the DC crew and here you go throwing cold water on them. 

[showmethesnow]

Slight bump north of the precip on the 06Z GFS.

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Just hunting for positives here for the DC crew and here you go throwing cold water on them. 

I am getting into the Xmas spirit. *Grinch*

[CAPE]

Just anecdotal, but just about every time we get one of these pure southern sliders, I will have light snow in my forecast for the modeled 'northern edge'. Usually I end up with nothing- more typical with these events that the cutoff for actual precip ends up in lower S MD over towards SBY.

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Just anecdotal, but just about every time we get one of these pure southern sliders, I will have light snow in my forecast for the modeled 'northern edge'. Usually I end up with nothing- more typical with these events that the cutoff for actual precip ends up in lower S MD over towards SBY.

Think what gets my goat is that piece of energy that screws up the initial system also screws up the secondary low that develops off the coast. Gives us a strong positively tilted trough to the west of our second system that runs it OTS. If that energy to the NE were to maybe exit sooner we would possibly be looking at at least a neutral trough, if not possibly a neg, to the west of the that second low which would help tighten the low to the coast and bring it up somewhat. 

[CAPE]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

Think what gets my goat is that piece of energy that screws up the initial system also screws up the secondary low that develops off the coast. Gives us a strong positively tilted trough to the west of our second system that runs it OTS. If that energy to the NE were to maybe exit sooner we would possibly be looking at at least a neutral trough, if not possibly a neg, to the west of the that second low which would help tighten the low to the coast and bring it up somewhat. 

Lol I am kinda done doing detailed analysis with this one. It is really disappointing overall because we identified this period early on as one with so much potential, we tracked the f out of it, and the end result is a major snowstorm well to our south.

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Lol I am kinda done doing detailed analysis with this one. It is really disappointing overall because we identified this period early on as one with so much potential, we tracked the f out of it, and the end result is a major snowstorm well to our south.

So you are saying onward and upward and lets start tracking our Christmas Eve/Christmas storm? I'm down with that. 

[Ji]

Late in the game for ensembles but I will note we saw a slight shift north of the precip on the overnight EPS. Slightly under a quarter of the members now place DC in the extreme outer edges of the precip field. Also seeing a slightly quicker relax of the initial confluence to the NE as well as slightly weaker high pressures to our north.

Slight dosent cut it

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Late in the game for ensembles but I will note we saw a slight shift north of the precip on the overnight EPS. Slightly under a quarter of the members now place DC in the extreme outer edges of the precip field. Also seeing a slightly quicker relax of the initial confluence to the NE as well as slightly weaker high pressures to our north.

Slight dosent cut it

Ya think?

[osfan24]

I give all of you credit for still analyzing the storm. If it were still Wednesday, I'd have a little hope.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

Here is some hope for DC 6z cmc

[SnowGolfBro]

35 minutes ago, Midlo Snow Maker said:

Here is some hope for DC 6z cmc

CMC is going Down with the ship. And I’m going down with the CMC lol

[Wonderdog]

1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

I give all of you credit for still analyzing the storm. If it were still Wednesday, I'd have a little hope.

I'd just be happy to see some snow falling tomorrow afternoon while I watch my Eagles getting pummeled in their secondary. 

 

 

[Buddy1987]

38 minutes ago, Midlo Snow Maker said:

Here is some hope for DC 6z cmc

6z CMC and 6z Euro from what I saw are now similar in depiction of LP placement I believe around the 33-36hr time frame. Qpf has gone up considerably down this way now. I was looking at obs down south. Lubbock TX was forecasted barely anything and they have like 6” on the ground. 

[NoVaWx]

That one storm idk how many years ago was supposed to bring 4-8 up until onset then went to pa instead and we got rain/sleet. Still holding hope for accumulating snow especially in a nino. 100 mile shift is all it takes and we’ve seen that happen we can get as much as Richmond is supposed to

[WxUSAF]

Pinning this for obs for our lucky southern half of the subforum.

[mattie g]

It’s unreal how close this was to a big hit for the majority of our subforum members. Really just a timing issue - just a tick faster or slower here or there and we’re in the goods.

I pretty much discount the November snow because it was such an anomaly, so this would have been a great “real” start to the season.

[jayyy]

Still could be a small hit for DC. Models are just models, sir. They are wrong and wrong often. 150 miles too far SE wrong? Not typically but it can certainly happen. Especially with a southern slider in east December. We needed this storm to either speed up or slow down a little bit to allow things to align better. Timing is literally perfect for screwing us over. Come on Canadian vort!!!! Move the **** back north. 

[Newman]

A lot of times every model can be wrong with the northern extent of the precip shield. Sometimes the radar day of will give you an idea if there's any fighting chance. However, the NW confluent flow is likely going to eat up the northern shield, and if it doesnt, dry air and virga will be an issue with little forcing. I'm pulling for you guys in DC.

[NorthArlington101]

For those still watching, the 12z NAM was a slight shrink south from its 06z position. Perhaps it'll get more in line with the 3k.

Heckuva model war going on. Canadians & NAM vs. EURO/FV3/ICON vs. GFS/WRFs. Differences in those camps is going to mean a lot for the southern half of the subforum.

[BristowWx]

55 minutes ago, mattie g said:

It’s unreal how close this was to a big hit for the majority of our subforum members. Really just a timing issue - just a tick faster or slower here or there and we’re in the goods.

I pretty much discount the November snow because it was such an anomaly, so this would have been a great “real” start to the season.

We won’t soon forget this one.  Flush hit that migrated south in December...whoda thought that.  On the plus side I think I understand the word confluence now so it’s a wash. 

[NorthArlington101]

3k also shrunk south a little bit.

[nj2va]

8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

We won’t soon forget this one.  Flush hit that migrated south in December...whoda thought that.  On the plus side I think I understand the word confluence now so it’s a wash. 

You’ll forget it as soon as you get a snowstorm.  I’m already over it...sometimes it snows here, sometimes it doesn’t. 

[CAPE]

Poor Richmond. Truly is a snow hole. Might see a couple inches though.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

You’ll forget it as soon as you get a snowstorm.  I’m already over it...sometimes it snows here, sometimes it doesn’t. 

Yup. And mostly it doesn't.

[Wonderdog]

You look at the new satellite image from this morning, you wonder how in the hell that storm is gonna miss us to the South

[Hyphnx]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Poor Richmond. Truly is a snow hole. Might see a couple inches though.

Local Mets are saying 3-6 with a raise to 4-8 is possible tonight

[Westendsnowguy]

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Poor Richmond. Truly is a snow hole. Might see a couple inches though.

You are usually a good poster, maybe you should take your bitterness to the LR thread to track another miss for DC