December 9/10 Storm

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

14 minutes ago, yoda said:

It's way down by ILM at 72... its over 

Where's the qpf line relative to previous runs?

eta: see SE sub

[yoda]

10 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Where's the qpf line relative to previous runs?

eta: see SE sub

South of RIC lol

[Scud]

11 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

0z euro trend fwiw

 

Pressure down  4mb better....

[peribonca]

No precip North of Richmond on Euro and Roanoke gets fringed too. 

[Scud]

ICON closer to Hatteras. Why? Because that's what they do.... 500mb energy trying to phase...

[Scud]

 

[Scud]

06z GFS: heavy snow in Grere SC,  low pressure off Jacksonville. If this verifies, This is the greatest model ever....

Then it does secondary development. All models are hinting....

[Scud]

[midatlanticweather]

Wow. 6z GFS hates Virginia. What an odd storm

[jayyy]

6 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Wow. 6z GFS hates Virginia. What an odd storm

Check HIS RES models for trends at this juncture to sniff out northern trends. Gfs won’t budge until it’s within 24. If NAM isn’t going north, were in trouble. 

[showmethesnow]

No help from the overnight EPS. Won't lie, I will keep tracking this to the bitter end hoping for a Hale Mary but at this point I have all but raised the white flag. Models have a hard time with NS energy and just a couple/few days ago when we were seeing our farther north solutions they weren't handling this one feature correctly. 

The culprit is below where we see a piece of energy rotating down through southeast Canada. What this is doing is reestablishing the confluence that had just begun relaxing from the piece of PV that is now pulling up through the 50/50 region. Take that feature out and and chances are good we have our snowstorm up into DC/Balt. What we are seeing is ridging into Greenland (bootleg -NAO) with a 50/50 at both 500s and the surface. The confluence is relaxing in time to allow a northward movement of the low in the SE. Ridging developing in front of the trough that is dropping in behind the southern low. Also are seeing ridging in the west in a prime spot for developing eastern lows. A very good and almost textbook look for scoring in the mid-Atlantic. 

But what we are seeing is that energy in SE Canada doing is putting a monkey wrench into the works. For one it kills the ridging in front of the trough in the southeast which in turn does not allow it a negative tilt which is more conducive for capturing/ influencing the southern low and pulling it northward. Two, it is effectively putting a wall back up over top the surface low which is blocking northward movement as it amplifies. Pretty much a double whammy.

So what changes in the coming runs could we hope for to see a farther north solution short of getting rid of that NS energy?

First we could hope for a quicker departure of the piece of pv that is now running through the 50/50 region. A quicker departure would tend to drag the energy rotating around it farther north as it swings through SE Canada which in turn pulls the confluence farther north as well. Second, we could hope for that NS energy to be slower as it swings down through SE Canada. This would allow the storm to gain some latitude during the relax before the wall comes down again. But let's face it, at this point we are just fighting for the miles to get DC into the northern fringes of possible measurable. The timing differences needed to get DC/Balt back into the game for a snowstorm are probably close to insurmountable as both the Euro and the GFS are pretty much locked in at this point. So seeing a 6 hr timing difference maybe, but a day+, that is a tall order.

Now I admit, this is  becoming a big disappointment for me because I have had high hopes for this time period for 10+ days now just to see it wrecked at pretty much short range. But I wouldn't let this discourage you whatsoever for this winter. This storm, even though it looks to be a fail, is further cementing in my mind of what I expect to see this winter. That we are potentially looking at a block buster season. What we are seeing is both a juiced active southern stream as well as an active northern stream and they are converging in the central/Midwest portions of the CONUS as evidenced by this coming storm as well as several other storms we have seen recently. Now like a home run hitter, this setup will have its share of strikeouts but on the flip side it will have its share of home runs. Here's hoping that we see this home run hitter on a tear this year and not in the midst of a strikeout slump.

 

[luckyamaha]

06z GFS: heavy snow in Grere SC,  low pressure off Jacksonville. If this verifies, This is the greatest model ever....
Then it does secondary development. All models are hinting....

Last 10 GFS model trends for 7pm Sunday goes from some light snow in the area to virtually none in all of Va for last two runs. Like you said is it going to verify and maybe will need to keep the GFS around for this winter season. Euro has been steady I think as well with the southern trend. Curious to know after this what the grades are between the two on performance

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

No help from the overnight EPS. Won't lie, I will keep tracking this to the bitter end hoping for a Hail Mary but at this point I have all but raised the white flag. Models have a hard time with NS energy and just a couple/few days ago when we were seeing our farther north solutions they weren't handling this one feature correctly. 

The culprit is below where we see a piece of energy rotating down through southeast Canada. What this is doing is reestablishing the confluence that had just begun relaxing from the piece of PV that is now pulling up through the 50/50 region. Take that feature out and and chances are good we have our snowstorm up into DC/Balt. What we are seeing is ridging into Greenland (bootleg -NAO with a 50/50 at both 500s and the surface. The confluence is relaxing in time to allow a northward movement of the low in the SE. Ridging developing in front of the trough that is dropping in behind the southern low. Also are seeing ridging in the west in a prime spot for developing eastern lows. A very good and almost textbook look for scoring in the mid-Atlantic. 

But what we are seeing that energy in SE Canada doing is putting a monkey wrench into the works. For one it kills the ridging in front of the trough in the southeast which in turn does not allow it a negative tilt which is more conducive for capturing/ influencing the southern low and pulling it northward. Two, it is effectively putting a wall back up over top the surface low which is blocking northward movement as it amplifies. Pretty much a double whammy.

So what changes in the coming runs could we hope for to see a farther north solution short of getting rid of that NS energy?

First we could hope for a quicker departure of the piece of pv that is now running through the 50/50 region. A quicker departure would tend to drag the energy rotating around it farther north as it swings through SE Canada which in turn pulls the confluence farther north as well. Second, we could hope for that NS energy to be slower as it swings down through SE Canada. This would allow the storm to gain some latitude during the relax before the wall comes down again. But let's face it, at this point we are just fighting for the miles to get DC into the northern fringes of possible measurable. The timing differences needed to get DC/Balt back into the game for a snowstorm are probably close to insurmountable as both the Euro and the GFS are pretty much locked in at this point. So seeing a 6 hr timing difference maybe, but a day+, that is a tall order.

Now I admit, this is  becoming a big disappointment for me because I have had high hopes for this time period for 10+ days now just to see it wrecked at pretty much short range. But I wouldn't let this discourage you whatsoever for this winter. This storm, even though it looks to be a fail, is further cementing in my mind of what I expect to see this winter. That we are potentially looking at a block buster season. What we are seeing is both a juiced active southern stream as well as an active northern stream and they are converging in the central/Midwest portions of the CONUS as evidenced by this coming storm as well as several other storms we have seen recently. Now like a home run hitter, this setup will have its share of strikeouts but on the flip side it will have its share of home runs. Here's hoping that we see this home run hitter on a tear this year and not in the midst of a strikeout slump.

 

I guess its just sort of 'bad luck" and bad timing. The PV is perturbed and the strongest piece has been sliding down over eastern Canada, and that has been pretty well modeled. All of these tropospheric 'daughter' vortices are a reflection of that. Too much of a good thing. Take a look at the h10 height anomalies as we head towards Sun-Mon. Impressive, but also in this case it translates to suppression. Of course beyond that it lifts out and shifts over towards Europe.

[Scud]

So much for a perturbed PV... How bout that stratusphereic  plum... Keep it moving...

[Wonderdog]

I feel sorry for some of the areas in NC. Seems like in the last two/three days, the snow field has been shrinking in area for them.

[Ralph Wiggum]

43 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

No help from the overnight EPS. Won't lie, I will keep tracking this to the bitter end hoping for a Hale Mary but at this point I have all but raised the white flag. Models have a hard time with NS energy and just a couple/few days ago when we were seeing our farther north solutions they weren't handling this one feature correctly. 

The culprit is below where we see a piece of energy rotating down through southeast Canada. What this is doing is reestablishing the confluence that had just begun relaxing from the piece of PV that is now pulling up through the 50/50 region. Take that feature out and and chances are good we have our snowstorm up into DC/Balt. What we are seeing is ridging into Greenland (bootleg -NAO) with a 50/50 at both 500s and the surface. The confluence is relaxing in time to allow a northward movement of the low in the SE. Ridging developing in front of the trough that is dropping in behind the southern low. Also are seeing ridging in the west in a prime spot for developing eastern lows. A very good and almost textbook look for scoring in the mid-Atlantic. 

But what we are seeing is that energy in SE Canada doing is putting a monkey wrench into the works. For one it kills the ridging in front of the trough in the southeast which in turn does not allow it a negative tilt which is more conducive for capturing/ influencing the southern low and pulling it northward. Two, it is effectively putting a wall back up over top the surface low which is blocking northward movement as it amplifies. Pretty much a double whammy.

So what changes in the coming runs could we hope for to see a farther north solution short of getting rid of that NS energy?

First we could hope for a quicker departure of the piece of pv that is now running through the 50/50 region. A quicker departure would tend to drag the energy rotating around it farther north as it swings through SE Canada which in turn pulls the confluence farther north as well. Second, we could hope for that NS energy to be slower as it swings down through SE Canada. This would allow the storm to gain some latitude during the relax before the wall comes down again. But let's face it, at this point we are just fighting for the miles to get DC into the northern fringes of possible measurable. The timing differences needed to get DC/Balt back into the game for a snowstorm are probably close to insurmountable as both the Euro and the GFS are pretty much locked in at this point. So seeing a 6 hr timing difference maybe, but a day+, that is a tall order.

Now I admit, this is  becoming a big disappointment for me because I have had high hopes for this time period for 10+ days now just to see it wrecked at pretty much short range. But I wouldn't let this discourage you whatsoever for this winter. This storm, even though it looks to be a fail, is further cementing in my mind of what I expect to see this winter. That we are potentially looking at a block buster season. What we are seeing is both a juiced active southern stream as well as an active northern stream and they are converging in the central/Midwest portions of the CONUS as evidenced by this coming storm as well as several other storms we have seen recently. Now like a home run hitter, this setup will have its share of strikeouts but on the flip side it will have its share of home runs. Here's hoping that we see this home run hitter on a tear this year and not in the midst of a strikeout slump.

 

A good example of how a handful of us had this period circled since just after Thanksgiving because of the pattern looks on the LR ens. Globals currently portray basically what we were looking at....+pna, nao ridge, 50/50 low, stj energy passing below us. But this is a prime example of how a meso feature or 2 embedded within those good looks can screw the whole thing up. You noted these features very well in your post.

[Wonderdog]

FV3 still gets some snow into maybe Richmond. Will be interesting if that verifies wrt grading the models on this annoying storm.

 

[showmethesnow]

Didn't think it was possible but the GEFS is even farther south with the snowfall means. Northern edge of the appreciable accumulations is now just north of the VA/NC line. 

[Scud]

This is a developing winter storm..

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

47 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

I feel sorry for some of the areas in NC. Seems like in the last two/three days, the snow field has been shrinking in area for them.

Don’t feel too sorry. Every model run from overnight has 14-28 inches here in WNC. Make a road trip! 

[Wonderdog]

16 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Don’t feel too sorry. Every model run from overnight has 14-28 inches here in WNC. Make a road trip! 

So I guess you'll be on the proverbial "slippery slope".

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Just now, Wonderdog said:

So I guess you'll be on the proverbial "slippery slope".

It’s posisble! Hope the sleet and freezing rain stays confined to my south, I enjoy my electricity. 

[mappy]

hey @stormtracker i think we can shut down storm mode for this one. i am sure some will still follow, while others think it will actually become a major storm, but i'm not sure moderating it is worth it any longer. my 2 cents anyways. 

[dallen7908]

% of EPS ensembles giving BWI > 1, 3, 6, and 12" of snow/sleet through early next week.  2% of the ensembles (i.e., one) give DC > 1" 

[attml]

A little trend north - It is not done yet!

 

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, dallen7908 said:

% of EPS ensembles giving BWI > 1, 3, 6, and 12" of snow/sleet through early next week.  2% of the ensembles (i.e., one) give DC > 1" 

What a perfect visual of this tracking disaster 

[Interstate]

If the track stays like this... who do we give the win to?

[jaydreb]

[showmethesnow]

11 minutes ago, Interstate said:

If the track stays like this... who do we give the win to?

North Carolina?

[Scraff]

12 minutes ago, attml said:

A little trend north - It is not done yet!

 

Maybe the New England wall won’t be as strong as anticipated. Get this to come north a few more ticks today and we good.