Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Icon trending the wrong way. We have the JMA, SREFs, and like 2 out of 70 ensemble members to hang our hat on inside of 96 hours. Jan 2000 redux it is. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 ICON seems to be heading for a north of RIC brick wall for the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Not even gonna wait up for GFS tonight. Need rest for these wounds to heal. Let’s see what the night shift can do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 its going to come down to the 06z runs tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I'm holding until the 4z HRRRRR on Sunday 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I have no doubt there will be one run of one model that nails DC....I'm guessing 12z Saturday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 18z EURO, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 18z EURO, FWIW. EPS was better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Snow doesn’t get out of the most southern edge of Virginia on the GFS, and it barely snows there.Close the blinds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 GFS says DT better make a new map. Measurable precip doesn’t even get to ROA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Yep GFS nearly blanks all of VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 CMC is coming north though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Snow doesn’t get out of the most southern edge of Virginia on the GFS, and it barely snows there. Close the blinds. At this rate it will be snowing in FL on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 GGEM would be flurries at best for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 FV3 is better for those in the southern part of the sub forum. Gets 0.1” to about EZF or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Pretty much a done deal. Southern VA to NC storm. It’s a lock. Don’t see this coming north at all, just too many factors working against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: FV3 is better for those in the southern part of the sub forum. Gets 0.1” to about EZF or so. where are you seeing this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: where are you seeing this? http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area# Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Interesting to see the trend how the ridge over central Canada strengthens. At this rate, we'll have a better chance of the New England low dropping down to phase than the weak wave out of the central U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 32 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Pretty much a done deal. Southern VA to NC storm. It’s a lock. Don’t see this coming north at all, just too many factors working against it. I see a SMALL jog north potential, but the I-66 corridor might as well be the Great Wall of China. Bummer there isn't a better escape route/retreating H so the storm could make even a small curve north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Interesting to see the trend how the ridge over central Canada strengthens. At this rate, we'll have a better chance of the New England low dropping down to phase than the weak wave out of the central U.S. A few days ago we were all giddy that Boston wasn’t going to see a flake while we got buried. Talk about karma. It’s the New England low screwing us now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 This one stings a little because it is generally a textbook look, but we had a few pesky things not go our way. Just a bunch of annoying short waves all over the place. I actually personally feel the 2nd shortwave that misses the phase hurts us by kicking everything East. It would really suck if this was like Late Feb Early March, but we aren’t even thru mid Dec, long way to go of course. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Things will sort out as precip fields develope. UK, CMC, NAM, still close. Sometimes we do need a day off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 hr24 on the euro...choose an isobar...half go south and half go north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 hr 48 looks slightly less suppressive to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Time to move on. Doesn’t seem like it’ll get north of RIC on Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 It's way down by ILM at 72... its over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 0z euro trend fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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