December 9/10 Storm

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Jay I'm at the office, do you have 0z at 108? 

00z dosent have 108 but here is the placment at 12z yesterday lol

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

00z dosent have 108 but here is the placment at 12z yesterday lol

I mean it is the JMA, yes it means very little, but it can't possibly hurt to have it where it does. Shows there's still run to run variance in SOME modeling. The NAM being north also means little, but again if we're going to see any type of trend start, then this is how it has to happen lol. 

[LP08]

3K Trend. Same thing as 12k.  Keep that from digging to far south and slow down the second lobe and we might be able to nudge it north.

[Ji]

You know whats going to happen. Its going to inch 30 miles North every run till about 18z on Saturday.....then at 00z, it will go south 100 miles

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Yeoman said:

All we needed was your white flag waving

its been the most south and east model this entire storm.....

[jayyy]

4 hours ago, luckyamaha said:

Wish casting is strong

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Wishcasting? I’m a meteorologist. I don’t wish cast or base my forecasts or predictions on outcomes I’d “like to see” I, unlike most, look at the upper air pattern, h5, 500 mb to get an idea on where this storm could go. Stop looking at surface outputs and clown maps. 

If you’re already counting us out, you have zero understanding of meteorology and are doing the opposite of “wishcasting”.  

[WxUSAF]

19 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Maybe a suggestion that people in Southern VA don't talk about how great things look in a forum dominated by people living between DC and MD-DE line when a model run doesn't even get precip into any part of MD. I don't remember this being an issue in previous years but it's been ridiculous with this storm. I'll see a post about how great the run looks and then go and look for myself and wonder what people are looking at.

People should be specific, but news flash, we’re going to have a pinned obs thread for this storm because it will impact our sub forum. I will fill it with posts about 35F and cloudy.

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

You know whats going to happen. Its going to inch 30 miles North every run till about 18z on Saturday.....then at 00z, it will go south 100 miles

Hey, we won't forget the storm that the JMA got for us, the ole 2006 MECS correct? 

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Hey, we won't forget the storm that the JMA got for us, the ole 2006 MECS correct? 

its due baby. maybe its the first global to pick up on the new trend

[clskinsfan]

JMA for the win!!

I am interested to see how much larger the precip shield gets as we get closer to the event. Yes we have a brick wall over us and the cutoff is going to be brutal. But i still think precip makes up further than modeled. Maybe only to 66 which puts me out of the game. 

[jayyy]

Anyone have any snow rituals? Inside out pajamas? Eating meatballs or a particular food? I know some of you are superstitious!

PS - Appreciate the up to the minute 18z suite updates ladies and gents. Would be nice to see a larger shift in the look at h5 / 500 mb, but the trend is there. I simply do not buy how overwhelming the confluence is being modeled by the globals right now. This air mass should be on its way out come Monday, not in. 

 

00z tonight should be interesting to say the least. Hope to see excitement on here and not people jumping off the ledge over missing out on snowfall in the first 1/3 of December. 

[RichmondTarHeel]

37 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Maybe a suggestion that people in Southern VA don't talk about how great things look in a forum dominated by people living between DC and MD-DE line when a model run doesn't even get precip into any part of MD. I don't remember this being an issue in previous years but it's been ridiculous with this storm. I'll see a post about how great the run looks and then go and look for myself and wonder what people are looking at.

I mean, when all the Richmond and Southern/Central VA peeps see a bunch of "booms" and  faces in every other thread, they don't complain about you guys enjoying your computer generated snow.

[Bob Chill]

ICON throws another wrinkle... lol. Blows up the trailing low with a nasty inv trof over SeVA on the way out to sea. Move that over MoCo and it would work for me. 

[clskinsfan]

39 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Maybe a suggestion that people in Southern VA don't talk about how great things look in a forum dominated by people living between DC and MD-DE line when a model run doesn't even get precip into any part of MD. I don't remember this being an issue in previous years but it's been ridiculous with this storm. I'll see a post about how great the run looks and then go and look for myself and wonder what people are looking at.

Not really fair to ask them to be quiet when we are always celebrating our snow here. Just saying.

[The Ole Bucket]

2 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said:

I mean, when all the Richmond and Southern/Central VA peeps see a bunch of "booms" and  faces in every other thread, they don't complain about you guys enjoying your computer generated snow.

I know it's storm mode but yeah. While everyone was enjoying 3-6" of powder in November, I counted two flakes, six pingers and the rest was a cold rain...

[Bob Chill]

Just now, The Ole Bucket said:

I know it's storm mode but yeah. While everyone was enjoying 3-6" of powder in November, I counted two flakes, six pingers and the rest was a cold rain...

It's a backyard sport. Always has been and always will be. I actually hate it when my neighbor gets snow. I'll sneak over there in the middle of the night and shovel it all into my yard. 

[H2O]

Another reminder this thread is for model disco only. Post all other nonsense in Banter please

[jaydreb]

If anything, confluence pressing down even more at 54 hours on 18z GFS.  

The low is a bit further north at 60 and 66 though.  

[luckyamaha]

Another reminder this thread is for model disco only. Post all other nonsense in Banter please

Sorry about that

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[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What's your opinion of side dishes for honey ham at Christmas?  I was thinking green bean casserole, cream corn, and sweet potatoes.  Your thoughts? 

BANTER!!!!

18Z @84 hrs is a close match to the 12Z, any differences at this point are pretty much noise. Precip might be a touch south.

[jaydreb]

GFS doesn’t budge.  Not even a tick north.  We had a good 30 mins enjoying the NAM extrapolation and JMA though.  

[Newman]

Just now, jaydreb said:

GFS doesn’t budge.  Not even a tick north.  We had a good 30 mins enjoying the NAM extrapolation and JMA though.  

Just gonna say that the GFS isn't going to budge at this range. It's going to stay locked in where it's at. Shorter range, high resolution models will be the first to pick up on any real changes at this range and, if trends go favorably, the GFS still won't budge until 24 hours out. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

BANTER!!!!

18Z @84 hrs is a close match to the 12Z, any differences at this point are pretty much noise. Precip might be a touch south.

I'm an a$$. I couldn't help it. 

Ill keep casually checking out each run of course and crazy things happen but that wall to our north looks impenetrable. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

BANTER!!!!

18Z @84 hrs is a close match to the 12Z, any differences at this point are pretty much noise. Precip might be a touch south.

We need one of two miracles to occur at this point-

1- the parade of vortices rotating through eastern Canada suddenly disappears or shifts a couple hundred miles east

2- the NS shortwave catches up and phases with the SS energy- not sure this can even happen if the strong NE confluence persists

 

[PivotPoint]

I’m actually fairly impressed with the GFS for this storm. Going back over it’s past six runs it’s been pretty consistent while others have caught on last 3-4.

although euro has been consistently south too for most part since two days ago.

someone correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t see the NS features changing much each run so I’m thinking only way dc metro scores anything is the SW has to amplify quickly and broaden its precicp shield. Which is a tall order with all that confluence 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

No change from fv3 from NCEP.  Not looking good.

eta: slightly south

[Ji]

No change from fv3 from NCEP.  Not looking good.

Wont be till 0z till big changes

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

10 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

I’m actually fairly impressed with the GFS for this storm. Going back over it’s past six runs it’s been pretty consistent while others have caught on last 3-4.

although euro has been consistently south too for most part since two days ago.

someone correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t see the NS features changing much each run so I’m thinking only way dc metro scores anything is the SW has to amplify quickly and broaden its precicp shield. Which is a tall order with all that confluence 

Agreed. The GFS was jumpy and showed some major hits early on but over the last 48 hours or so has been pretty steady eddy. I declared this storm dead for the Baltimore area on my weather page earlier today 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

8 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

No change from fv3 from NCEP.  Not looking good.

Wont be till 0z till big changes

Are we still going with the weenie hail Mary classic: "poorly sampled shortwave moving in from the NPAC"?

[osfan24]

The GFS snowfall map also has more of a east-west orientation than more southwest-northeast, which I think just shows how much the confluence is really pressing down. Not a good sign.