Roger Smith Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Low appears to be slowly organizing between San Antonio and Monterrey MX. At least it has access to the Gulf. (looking for silver linings) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Come on baby... that vort needs to move east from western Canada so that we can get some decent data from it. We are SO close. Just need some sharper digging on the SW flank, and a less pronounced vort come Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 12z EPS cuts back even further for DC. Went from 1/2 inch of snow at 0z to pityflakes at 12z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: 12z EPS cuts back even further for DC. Went from 1/2 inch of snow at 0z to pityflakes at 12z. EPS is totally locked onto a S VA/NC major snowstorm. Looks like the high country of western NC is going to get nuked. The Triad should get hit pretty hard too. Not sure how much change is realistic at this point. Very little probably. Maybe a period of light snow/mix from lower S MD over towards SBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 DT really pushing stronger storm N snow shield trend.. ESP in the Richmond Area... (per his facebook site) his quote.. "Cutting edge stuff" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Its amazing how close this is to our ideal spot. Just a couple tweaks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: DT really pushing stronger storm N snow shield trend.. ESP in the Richmond Area... (per his facebook site) his quote.. "Cutting edge stuff" He compared the Euro from last night to the Euro today and it showed a more Northern turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Percent chance of at least 1, 3, 6, and 12" of snow through early next week at BWI according to the EPS 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 hour ago, osfan24 said: Man, what's going on to our northeast is a disaster that just keeps getting worse and worse. I'm not sure that's where we should be looking. The snow actually shifted substantially north in the 12z run compared to 00z, even though the trough over Canada dropped down. I looked through some maps to figure out why, and I think it's related to he trough over the North Atlantic slowly trending north. I'm not sure the trend will continue, and the model consensus at this point doesn't look favorable. But I think that might be a feature to watch in future runs. (fwiw, I'm not too worried about the EPS though, as they'll start closely tracking the op around now.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, cae said: I'm not sure that's where we should be looking. The snow actually shifted substantially north in the 12z run compared to 00z, even though the trough over Canada dropped down. I looked through some maps to figure out why, and I think it's related to he trough over the North Atlantic slowly trending north. I'm not sure the trend will continue, and the model consensus at this point doesn't look favorable. But I think that might be a feature to watch in future runs. (fwiw, I'm not too worried about the EPS though, as they'll start closely tracking the op around now.) Others had the same thoughts. the H5 looked awful, that lobe being further south does us no favors, yet the precip shield ended up further north. who knows man... who knows lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, cae said: I'm not sure that's where we should be looking. The snow actually shifted substantially north in the 12z run compared to 00z, even though the trough over Canada dropped down. I looked through some maps to figure out why, and I think it's related to he trough over the North Atlantic slowly trending north. I'm not sure the trend will continue, and the model consensus at this point doesn't look favorable. But I think that might be a feature to watch in future runs. (fwiw, I'm not too worried about the EPS though, as they'll start closely tracking the op around now.) Get rid of that lobe diving down from Hudson Bay and we would have been good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 nam looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Don't shoot the messenger. Confluence relaxes slightly and the 18z NAM gets precip to EZF then the hammer drops and scoots out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Snowchaser said: nam looks good Kuchera says nearly 6"... 10:1 has more than 7" here in Cville. Really doubt that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Get rid of that lobe diving down from Hudson Bay and we would have been good. High Pressure sitting over Herndon aint the best thing for our HECS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, LP08 said: Don't shoot the messenger. Confluence relaxes slightly and the 18z NAM gets precip to EZF then the hammer drops and scoots out to sea. I think that is because of the giant bowling ball at h5 that appears in the Plains at 78? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, yoda said: I think that is because of the giant bowling ball at h5 that appears in the Plains at 78? I think (not the best choice of words on here!) that there is a gap between the first NS SW at 57 in ME (a little less dig this run) and the ULL that drops in at 75 where heights rebound slightly to allow precip to advance north. But that second lob rotating down hammers down and shuts it off. Whew too much NAM talk, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 NAM gets .5 qpf into the MD portion of the Delmarva. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Interesting... taking 10:1 directly... EZF gets 2" of snow... SW portions of LWX CWA are WSW criteria (CHO/Harrisonburg/Staunton). Too bad its the 18z NAM at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Maybe a suggestion that people in Southern VA don't talk about how great things look in a forum dominated by people living between DC and MD-DE line when a model run doesn't even get precip into any part of MD. I don't remember this being an issue in previous years but it's been ridiculous with this storm. I'll see a post about how great the run looks and then go and look for myself and wonder what people are looking at. 4 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: Too bad its the 18z NAM at 84 It's the best run we've seen in 24 hours. Don't care which model it is. It's worth a hug until something better comes along. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmcwahoo Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 That's been the tension on this board forever. For as much as you say it's been a problem with this storm, Richmond and CVA folks have had to live with constant "I hope Richmond doesn't get anything" kind of posts and a board perspective that is always Beltway-MD centric when in reality it's the MA board and a large part of the population covered exists south of that area. It's all dumb because its just weather, but it does go both ways, and it does oftentimes make it tough for Va folks outside of the Beltway to really feel like this board covers us 13 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 the JMA literaelly went 300 miles North and West. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's the best run we've seen in 24 hours. Don't care which model it is. It's worth a hug until something better comes along. the JMA just came along. We are going to see huge changes at 00z. Wait till the ICon moves north 250 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, Ji said: the JMA literaelly went 300 miles North and West. Jay I'm at the office, do you have 0z at 108? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 NAM and JMA move north. TREND BABY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 FWIW (less than nothing since it's extrapolating the NAM), the northern edge of the precip shield on the 3km at hr 60 is about 40mi furthern N than the 12km at the same time...interpret this as you choose. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: the JMA literaelly went 300 miles North and West. LOL it gets .75" into DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingJWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 lol JMA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: the JMA just came along. We are going to see huge changes at 00z. Wait till the ICon moves north 250 miles Yea, looks like we both score .5 qpf and with 25:1 ratios it's a mini hecs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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