Wonderdog Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 2 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: Surprised to see this high of a percentage IMBY for the forecast. FV3 is so close. Back to where it was at. 18z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 13 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: NCEP fv3 has D.C. as the northern fringe. We just need little nudges and one 50 mile nudge mixed in between now and Saturday and we will be buying milk and toilet paper 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Looks like the southern s/w is a bit sharper at 72 with slightly more negative tilt? No? Not that it will matter up here. ..but just checking to see if what I am seeing is wrong or right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Euro North...light stuff to EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Snowchaser said: hows the euro looking guys? No major changes through 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Snowchaser said: hows the euro looking guys? 997 low squashed south of where we need it to be at 96. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Euro North...light stuff to EZF 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: 997 low squashed south of where we need it to be at 96. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Euro North...light stuff to EZF Oh? Then precip is responding differently because 500 looks crappy compared to yesterday’s crappy 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Euro North...light stuff to EZF Like 1-3" light stuff or around an inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: lol These both can be true. The precip may have bumped north a little but the low is still way south of where we need it to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Oh? Then precip is responding differently because 500 looks crappy compared to yesterday’s crappy 12z run. It haults here...this is the closest approach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Actually a decent tick north on 12z euro. Richmond at least gets into decent stuff (1-3). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 ^Thats as close as it gets, but a decent tick north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks like the southern s/w is a bit sharper at 72 with slightly more negative tilt? No? Not that it will matter up here. ..but just checking to see if what I am seeing is wrong or right... Slightly BUT... the problems are whats going on to the northeast... its still trending worse. Ignore everything else and just look to our northeast...and look at the trend the last 72 hours... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Like 1-3" light stuff or around an inch? Flurries but Richmond is in the game atleast. I should have said Precip North and not just North....apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Thats as close as it gets, but a decent tick north. Surprising given how bad 500 looked. Maybe the stronger s/w is finally counting for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Oh? Then precip is responding differently because 500 looks crappy compared to yesterday’s crappy 12z run. Yea the h5 looks a hot mess! There have been marginal improvements in the precip shield today but the H5 look has actually continued to degrade away from what we want for more then conversational fringe snow IMO. The issues over new england have only trended worse and the upper level situation in the midwest looks a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, WxUSAF said: Surprising given how bad 500 looked. Maybe the stronger s/w is finally counting for something. Yeah thats kinda what I figured. I was looking at h5 the whole time thinking- this is crap. I was a little surprised when I took a peak at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 A 30.25 baro. is not suppressive for DC, in fact it’s almost perfect for onset 30.40+ inside of 12 hours and especially 6 will push it away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Slightly BUT... the problems are whats going on to the northeast... its still trending worse. Ignore everything else and just look to our northeast...and look at the trend the last 72 hours... Man, what's going on to our northeast is a disaster that just keeps getting worse and worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Man, what's going on to our northeast is a disaster that just keeps getting worse and worse. We needed the 50/50 and that lobe rotating around to trend weaker/north and it trended stronger/south. That simple. Ironically given the improvements in other areas had that situation simply stayed the same as it looked 72 hours ago we might be in the game now... the storm has pretty much stayed where it was despite the issues up there because of a stronger stj wave and the typical correction towards a healthier precip shield on the north side. But those changes cant save us because the confluence keeps trending south every run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Slightly BUT... the problems are whats going on to the northeast... its still trending worse. Ignore everything else and just look to our northeast...and look at the trend the last 72 hours... Eek, its batting it down even more in today's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea the h5 looks a hot mess! There have been marginal improvements in the precip shield today but the H5 look has actually continued to degrade away from what we want for more then conversational fringe snow IMO. The issues over new england have only trended worse and the upper level situation in the midwest looks a mess. What could have saved it is the ridge axis out west. It was looking decent at 72 and then shifts east which doesn't help the SS get grabbed by the trailing vort over the plains. Its got no where to go with that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: A 30.25 baro. is not suppressive for DC, in fact it’s almost perfect for onset 30.40+ inside of 12 hours and especially 6 will push it away. One can only wish and hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 of GFS ensembles snow up to PA line. https://imgur.com/a/tlD0JYm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We needed the 50/50 and that lobe rotating around to trend weaker/north and it trended stronger/south. That simple. Ironically given the improvements in other areas had that situation simply stayed the same as it looked 72 hours ago we might be in the game now... the storm has pretty much stayed where it was despite the issues up there because of a stronger stj wave and the typical correction towards a healthier precip shield on the north side. But those changes cant save us because the confluence keeps trending south every run. It is ironic how we thought that area to our north was so problematic a few days ago, but had we just kept that look combined with the other improvements, we would have been in solid shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 I think that confluence to the North has peaked and will slowly start retrograding back to the less suppressive look we saw a couple days ago. The question will then be if the s/w is potent enough tho gain latitude as it moves across theSouth. The game is on. But we are down 2 scores and the other team has the ball. We need a turnover to flip the momentum. Happy hour is our time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 If people are going to make predictions about future model runs, can they provide some reasoning or evidence to back it up? For less-knowledgeable folks like me, it comes across as just being a weenie in a Storm Mode thread. We all hope the confluence is overdone and we all hope the precip shield is underdone, etc, but to predict that it has 'peaked' this run or will subside in future runs without providing any reasoning or evidence whatsoever is confusing to read alongside solid analysis by others. Just my $0.02. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Is that another suppressed S VA, Carolinas hit at day 9-10 on the Euro? That's where we want it at this range right? Eta: nm....too warm everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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