December 9/10 Storm

[jayyy]

Still hope for the 95 corridor (Dc - BAL) I would really like to see those 2 pieces of energy in Canada retreat north or delay on 0z tonight or we may be hoping for flurries on Monday. 

 

Suppresion in early DECEMBER? Son of a ....

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Let's see if the ICON can lead the way to some positive changes...SS s/w a touch slower and confluence over New England a touch further NE through 66.

[Interstate]

2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Let's see if the ICON can lead the way to some positive changes...SS s/w a touch slower and confluence over New England a touch further NE.

[yoda]

4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Let's see if the ICON can lead the way to some positive changes...SS s/w a touch slower and confluence over New England a touch further NE.

Doesn't look like it through 78 with snow way down in S VA lol

[osfan24]

4 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Still hope for the 95 corridor (Dc - BAL) I would really like to see those 2 pieces of energy in Canada retreat north or delay on 0z tonight or we may be hoping for flurries on Monday. 

 

Suppresion in early DECEMBER? Son of a ....

Yeah storms this early in the year seem to always want to push north. Crazy this one is going to stay so far south. The good news is it's December 6 and the pattern looks loaded for the winter.

[CAPE]

Its probably not good when the northern edge of the precip shield is a straight line tilted NW to SE with a low on the SC coast.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Yeah that initial piece over Maine got out of the way a little faster but that large blob over Canada looks the same

Just now, yoda said:

Doesn't look like it through 78 with snow way down in S VA lol

 

[EastCoast NPZ]

41 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I purchased my first snowblower in the fall of 2016 when we moved to Maryland.  We've been cursed since.  I'm sacrificing it on the front lawn this weekend in front of the nativity scene to see if that changes thing.

Purchased mine in Nov. 15, ahead of the super Nino.  Came in extremely handy that next Jan.  Spent the entirety of that Sunday clearing out mine and my neighbors houses.  Its been parked in my garage since, collecting dust.  Each fall I drain the oil and replace, fire it up and test it.  Each winter it sits undisturbed.  Used once in 3 years now.

[EastCoast NPZ]

13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like we both smoke cirrus this weekend.

The C in HECS stands for cirrus, right?

[KingJWx]

On the 12z ICON, precip makes it up to CHO and EZF

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, KingJWx said:

On the 12z ICON, precip makes it up to CHO and EZF

Yeah it actually bumped about 50ish miles north of its previous run.  

[psuhoffman]

NAM looked pathetic for the NAM.  That's as much analysis as I am willing to do.  

[Scraff]

3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Yeah it actually bumped about 50ish miles north of its previous run.  

If we can get a 50 mile tick north each model run we’re in good shape....for Boston getting smoked. 

[Interstate]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

NAM looked pathetic for the NAM.  That's as much analysis as I am willing to do.  

The nice thing now is we do not have to wait for many panels to come out to see our fate.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

The nice thing now is we do not have to wait for many panels to come out to see our fate.

I think we know our fate...

There is time but things are bleeding the wrong way right now right when we would expect to see the positive changes if this were likely to go well.  

[paulythegun]

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

GFS also with a minor adjustment north, looks like the SS s/w amped heights up a little more and cancelled out the fact that the dumb clipper/confluence/whatever over Canada. 

[jaydreb]

Not sure why I’m still following this but slight tick North on 12z GFS.  

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

The NAM is actually pretty interesting. The storm could be two parts, the second being a stall/blizzard.

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Not sure why I’m still following this but slight tick North on 12z GFS.  

Just looks like noise. Nothing appreciably shifted.

[jayyy]

Confluence is retreating / a tad weaker so far in the 12z suite on the GFS NAM and ICON. (12 and 0z are the only that actually count at this point as they receive much more data than off hour runs) Solid start to the suite. Long way to go. 

 

Keep in mind, there will be a ton of players on the field for this storm and majority of them are still offshore, including the main system in question. If this trend continues at 0z, we are still in the game. Time is, however, getting short. 

[jaydreb]

CMC takes away DCA’s flurries.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

I think it’s coming north. Now whether that means any snow makes it to northern va is a different matter, but I think each model cycle will bring it North somewhat. I think it’s already starting with this model cycle. 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

CMC takes away DCA’s flurries.  

CMC is a poser, and it always folds like a tent.

[Westendsnowguy]

15 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

The NAM is actually pretty interesting. The storm could be two parts, the second being a stall/blizzard.

I didnt realize wishcasting was an actual part of model discussion, 85% of your posts are like "what is this person smoking, can I have some of those drugs"

[luckyamaha]

Confluence is retreating / a tad weaker so far in the 12z suite on the GFS NAM and ICON. (12 and 0z are the only that actually count at this point as they receive much more data than off hour runs) Solid start to the suite. Long way to go. 
 
Keep in mind, there will be a ton of players on the field for this storm and majority of them are still offshore, including the main system in question. If this trend continues at 0z, we are still in the game. Time is, however, getting short. 

Wish casting is strong

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[Snowchaser]

Accuweather snowfall forecast made 30 mintues ago

Washington locally 1''

Charlottesville 3-6 locally 8''

Richmond 1-3  locally 5''

 

[Snowchaser]

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Just looks like noise. Nothing appreciably shifted.

There seemed like some minor but noticeable shifts north in the confluence through about 78 hours and it did cause a minor slight bump northwest.  BUT... after that things ended up the same spot anyways because that lobe of the pinwheel up in the NS dove down even stronger and south (again).  That feature has been trending worse and worse over the last couple days and its offsetting the (minor) improvements in other areas that may show up run to run.  A lot of those improvements are what I was kind of banking on to give us a chance but that required not having a degradation of the flow in the NS.  If we look at where the confluence is up there its not even close really...we need it to back off quite a bit to match up with where it was in storms that got significant snows up into our area.  Possible I guess but its going the wrong way right now.  The only thing I could see that could change this equation that much would be if the models are all just totally messing up the phasing and that upper low in the Midwest phases in cleanly instead of holding back and acting like a kicker.  That could pump heights in front enough to change the equation...and that is the kind of complicated thing that perhaps all the guidance is struggling with.  But that is a pretty low probability.  However, the issues to our northeast seem even less likely to resolve themselves.  I know its the NS and those vorts are hard to pin down but its that whole lobe rotating through quebec that is the problem not any one individual vort...and no matter how the guidance handles those vorts that whole mess drops down and squashes everything every run.  To me that indicates that unless we get a phased bomb this just isnt' going to work.  

[ers-wxman1]

00z suite will be the one to watch. Give it one more round before definitive.