December 9/10 Storm

[mattb65]

Don't want to sound like a broken record but out to 72 hrs on the 00z GFS, mix of good/bad. More amplified ridge out west and slightly stronger SW but the confluence in the way is pushing down even more than at 18z and the trailing NS SW in the Dakota's still looks a touch too slow to be able to dive in and save the day.

[SnowGolfBro]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

i was banking on 3 HECS this season....losing this one is going to really my chances

I bank on 3 HECS every year. But let’s be honest. If the pattern loads back up in a couple weeks we will be chasing multiple threats during prime climo. Still not giving up on this HECS even if the models keep slapping us in the face.

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

i know but to toss a 1-2 foot snowstorm and hope another comes along is just hard to phatom. Especially when places that shouldnt get snow are taking ours

I feel ya but climo wise we shouldn't get a 20" storm this early either. It's a fluke anomaly either way. 

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

i was banking on 3 HECS this season....losing this one is going to really my chances

Yes it's always a good idea to set the bar at equaling the snowiest year on record. 

[Hurricanegiants]

Well. It’s still Wednesday. I know...wishful blah blah. But if we can tick north tomorrow morning. It would still be only Thursday. Lots can change. It’s not like it’s 24-48 yet.  Here’s to hoping we wake up to better overnight model runs. And when I say better—I mean ANY north improvement. 

[Ji]

i think the GGEM is going to go south....lol

[nj2va]

Looks like RIC will be the northern cutoff of precip on the GFS.  

[SnowGolfBro]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

i think the GGEM is going to go south....lol

Good that model is always wrong. We need the Euro to find its way North over the next 24 hours or so. Starting tonight would be nice.

[yoda]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

i think the GGEM is going to go south....lol

Correct... DC on northern fringe

[aldie 22]

This really isn't a new movie but somehow we always end up surprised 

[Roger Smith]

That GGEM 72-84h pass looks like 8-12" in central VA to southeast MD, 3-5" DCA to s NJ and a sharp cutoff near MD-PA border. Let's hope that trend of sharp northern cutoffs moving north works with this one. Then it could be more like 8-12" everywhere and let PA worry about where 3-5" ends up. 

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

That GGEM 72-84h pass looks like 8-12" in central VA to southeast MD, 3-5" DCA to s NJ and a sharp cutoff near MD-PA border. Let's hope that trend of sharp northern cutoffs moving north works with this one. Then it could be more like 8-12" everywhere and let PA worry about where 3-5" ends up. 

Huh?  Are you talking about the 12z one?  Cause 00z went way south 

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

7 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

That GGEM 72-84h pass looks like 8-12" in central VA to southeast MD, 3-5" DCA to s NJ and a sharp cutoff near MD-PA border. Let's hope that trend of sharp northern cutoffs moving north works with this one. Then it could be more like 8-12" everywhere and let PA worry about where 3-5" ends up. 

DC is around 1” on the Canadian...southern Jersey is zero. But nice try 

[yoda]

00Z GGEM gets 1 inch line to DCA... 5 or 6 inch line is at EZF

Yay

[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So you mean to tell me we can have something like that even if we are NOT in a nina? And tell me...this...abomination and wrecker of snow hope that is looking to steal our snow this time...is this a feature where, at long range (like looking for good patterns on the weeklies and such) we can say "Ah, with this setup, NS suppression isn't likely"--Because I don't want to even look at another threat where this particular thing can happen...because it seems to be a pointless fight. (Right now, the mere mention of "northern stream" makes me cringe)

I don't want to write a post mortem when the storm hasn't happened yet but the northern stream can be an issue in any pattern. In a nina more so because the stj is typically weaker and the NS stronger. So that stacks the odds that with vorts flying by it's harder to get phasing, or to get the jet to buckle under us.  But the NS is always there and bad luck with a mistimed vort can mess up a threat anytime. There is no pattern where every storm will hit. In any winter no matter how good some will cut and some will be suppressed.  If this plays out the way it looks it's just bad luck imo. If that upper low set up 200 miles further north we would have been fine.  

Finally we need some suppression. Without it we rain. We're not far enough north to typically win without some suppression. But the areal coverage of snowfall is small in a global sense so too much of a good thing and it squashes. Not enough and it cuts. It's just a matter of getting lucky. 

This was a pretty good threat. Just too much "blocking". I know some said there isn't but the way the jet is configured right now to our north it's acting like a defacto block. But give this this kind of pattern a few more times and I'll take my chances we hit on one.  From range there is no way to say though. The differences at h5 between a D.C. hit or a close miss isn't significant. And the model error is too significant to say from range exactly where confluence will be. Don't know what to tell you other than this hobby is a roller coaster. Try to enjoy the ride. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

NCEP fv3 has just south of D.C. as the northern fringe.

[Ji]

1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

NCEP fv3 has D.C. as the northern fringe.

we cant seem to cross that line....and we get close, the next run chops the progress

[luckyamaha]

Im starting Happy Hour early tonight. Got a fresh 12 pack of Danzig from Devils Backbone maybe we will gain the 50-75-100 miles needed by the weekend. Definitely we are loosing ground but as PSU said this should not happen this early for our usual climo. MORE will come keep the faith for the next 3 months. Will hit +150% of average totals.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Amped said:

We need to activate despair mode. 

I posted the euro seasonal in the long range thread just now. I figured we could use some cheering up. 

[NorthArlington101]

GEFS a slight improvement. IIRC, heavier stuff has been shifted more south but northern extent is a little nicer.

[RichmondTarHeel]

Two feet of snow in Charlotte.  In December?  I’m from that area.  This has never happened that I can recall.  I’ll believe it when I see it.  I’m gonna bet on a Central VA to DC jackpot.  

My cousin Tammy in Hickory gonna get real fat and sassy off some bread and milk if she gets 2’ of snow. 

[stormtracker]

3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And the last two times @stormtracker has started a thread...the storm failed, lol

What about when I started threads for 3 HECS in 09-2010.  And January 2016?  Was that a fail too?  Asking for a friend.   

[showmethesnow]

4 hours ago, Ji said:

i blame Showmethesnow...everytime he makes a positive thread....the exact opposite happens then he dissappears lol. Poor guy

Part of my evil plan to take over the world. 

I don't get too hung up on 1 cycle of runs or even a days worth but glancing over yesterday and the trends were not pretty I admit. About to look over the overnight runs to see if there are any positives but until/if we can get rid of or see a quicker release of that NE suppression we are probably SOL for those north of DC. Still think DC will luck into an inch or two at the least though. Have 4 days so let's let this play out another day or two before we call TOD.

[showmethesnow]

13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

What about when I started threads for 3 HECS in 09-2010.  And January 2016?  Was that a fail too?  Asking for a friend.   

Everybody's a hater these days. Guess that is what happens when the models take away their pretend snow.  

[showmethesnow]

Overnight EPS wasn't pretty. We are seeing energy rotating down reinforcing the confluence to our NE just as our storm is in the east. If that feature is a phantom then we are probably still somewhat in the game, otherwise...

[CAPE]

43 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Overnight EPS wasn't pretty. We are seeing energy rotating down reinforcing the confluence to our NE just as our storm is in the east. If that feature is a phantom then we are probably still somewhat in the game, otherwise...

Yeah there still could be some timing/strength errors with that parade of vortices. and we are still 4 days out, but the guidance certainty seems to have converged on a general solution over the past several runs- and it doesn't include much if any snow for our region. We may be getting close to fork time.

[showmethesnow]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah there still could be some timing/strength errors with that parade of vortices. and we are still 4 days out, but the guidance certainty seems to have converged on a general solution over the past several runs- and it doesn't include much if any snow for our region. We may be getting close to fork time.

The models have been all over the place with the energy rotating through eastern Canada so there is hope. But at some point you would think they would get that nailed down and I am thinking that time is getting near. A day maybe? Two on the outside? 

[CAPE]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

The models have been all over the place with the energy rotating through eastern Canada so there is hope. But at some point you would think they would get that nailed down and I am thinking that time is getting near. A day maybe? Two on the outside? 

Probably yes. And even though they have been sort of all over with the discrete pieces of energy, the general outcome is the same. I was hoping we would see things become a bit more amped out west with a sharper s/w dropping in to interact with the southern energy- something like the CMC had. I guess thats still a possibility. Still need some relaxation to our NE though.

[showmethesnow]

A little more of a relax on the confluence over the NE on the 06Z GFS @ 60 hr. But that is more then likely nothing more then noise at this point.

[showmethesnow]

06Z was a pretty good match to the 00Z run. Pretty much the same results with a W NC jackpot.