December 9/10 Storm

[stormtracker]

Ok.  I’ll skip the long spiel and keep it short.  Keep banner to a minimum.  Post on point content. Rules are a lot stricter.  Posts disappear easily in this here thread.  Bring the storm north. 

[Bob Chill]

Here's a visual for the shortwave that can make or break our chances. Here's where it is right now:

 

CMC fully phases the shortwave well to our SW in TN/AR. GFS/FV3/Euro are all close but haven't shown anything like the CMC solution. This isn't the only piece to watch but if you want the CMC version to come true, it's the part to watch. 

[Bob Chill]

GEFS is a slight shift north with the heaviest precip in VA but mostly just noise for our area. Excruciating miss to the south favored. 

[NorthArlington101]

GEFS essentially identical to 6z just based off the snowmap. 

better zoom. It is a slight improvement. Mean jumped an 1" or so for DCA.

[yoda]

Looks like per 12z GEFS snowfall mean EZF is nearing 5" while DCA is near 3"

[usedtobe]

It does looks like we are almost dealing with 3 streams of flow.  The two more southerly features that interact and the northern stream flow over the northeast which needs to relax for us to get creamed.  For the Canadian to be right we need all three to react the way we want. The more northern of the two southern system to help pick up the system that is now coming into CA and lift it towards us while the northern stream lifts enough to allow the southern system not get completely sheared under it.  The GGEM does that and the parallel almost does it which allows it to give us snow.  Quite a cut off between the 0.50" liquid line and the nothing.  That makes for big forecast problems.  I've written a CWG article on the event but from reading all the comment here, everyone seems to understand the uncertainty and how volatile the model changes could be from run to run.  

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Looks like per 12z GEFS snowfall mean EZF is nearing 5" while DCA is near 3"

Look at the members though. Down to 3 that put our area in the QPF max. Vast majority would be deep disappointments 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Look at the members though. Down to 3 that put our area in the QPF max. Vast majority would be deep disappointments 

So far I think the last 24 hours have been a complete wash with narrowing of the outliers as we get closer the only real trend. But we're right where we where with the target just south of us and needing some combination of better phasing and relaxing of the NS flow to our north. 

[Bob Chill]

For now, it's undeniable how much support there is for a NC/SVa crushing. Things can certainly break right as there's plenty of time but looking back over the last 3-4 days, it's apparent that guidance is locking in on a pretty brutal miss in our area. I'll remain hopeful because there's still hope but I don't see a compelling argument that the meat of the qpf shield is destined to hit us flush. 

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

So far I think the last 24 hours have been a complete wash with narrowing of the outliers as we get closer the only real trend. But we're right where we where with the target just south of us and needing some combination of better phasing and relaxing of the NS flow to our north. 

EPS seems to be trending. Fingers crossed that continues at 12z. Ukie aside, we do seem to have gotten rid of the WAY far south solutions that don’t get precip north of the Va/NC line in the last day. Consensus right now puts the cutoff between shoveling and tears between RIC and EZF.

[stormtracker]

FV3 came north.  Gets us into the precip shield now

 

EDIT: Didn't check the 6z...about the same, but still better than the regular ol GFS

[wawarriors4]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

EPS seems to be trending. Fingers crossed that continues at 12z. Ukie aside, we do seem to have gotten rid of the WAY far south solutions that don’t get precip north of the Va/NC line in the last day. Consensus right now puts the cutoff between shoveling and tears between RIC and EZF.

I want to feel good about getting some snow around EZF but as you said, just have a feeling the cutoff will be a little South of EZF. FV-3 did come North some though, we will see how the EURO looks in a bit.

[usedtobe]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

FV3 came north.  Gets us into the precip shield now

 

EDIT: Didn't check the 6z...about the same, but still better than the regular ol GFS

I think it is a tad wetter for us than the 06Z.  It's veery close to being really good and I'd take it. 

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

FV3 came north.  Gets us into the precip shield now

 

EDIT: Didn't check the 6z...about the same, but still better than the regular ol GFS

it didnt come north. It south of where it was when it gave us good snow yesterday. It goes north...then goes south...then when it goes north-we say it went north but its never north enough because its always going south

[ers-wxman1]

12z FV3...warning level snow not that far south of NOVA/D.C. 

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

it didnt come north. It south of where it was when it gave us good snow yesterday. It goes north...then goes south...then when it goes north-we say it went north but its never north enough because its always going south

We're getting pretty good consolidation now with the track/evolution and we're still right on the edge of the good stuff. Like PSU said, that's not a bad place to be. If this was 72 hours out I would be pretty pessimistic. We literally only need a 90 mile shift now and we're both in warning level snowfall. IMHO- it does seem like a miss or scrape south is the most likely outcome but can't throw in the towel yet at all. We're 48-72 hours before knowing if we're in or out of the heavy stuff. 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

it didnt come north. It south of where it was when it gave us good snow yesterday. It goes north...then goes south...then when it goes north-we say it went north but its never north enough because its always going south

Yea the moves in the gfs and Fv3 the last 24 hours are noise imo 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

We're getting pretty good consolidation now with the track/evolution and we're still right on the edge of the good stuff. Like PSU said, that's not a bad place to be. If this was 72 hours out I would be pretty pessimistic. We literally only need a 90 mile shift now and we're both in warning level snowfall. IMHO- it does seem like a miss or scrape south is the most likely outcome but can't throw in the towel yet at all. We're 48-72 hours before knowing if we're in or out of the heavy stuff. 

Curious about the euro run but it seems like everytime we need a north trend...it dosent happen for us. It only happens when we dont need a north trend 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Curious about the euro run but it seems like everytime we need a north trend...it dosent happen for us. It only happens when we dont need a north trend 

The tracking gets old lol

It's a 12-24" storm somewhere. (More if it wasn't +EPO)

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea the moves in the gfs and Fv3 the last 24 hours are noise imo 

Sounds like the phase solution is the only thing that will keep those of us north of DC in the game!

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Ji said:

Curious about the euro run but it seems like everytime we need a north trend...it dosent happen for us. It only happens when we dont need a north trend 

Euro was a notable shift north between 12z yesterday and 0z last night. We'll know in about 45 minutes which direction 12z goes...

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We're getting pretty good consolidation now with the track/evolution and we're still right on the edge of the good stuff. Like PSU said, that's not a bad place to be. If this was 72 hours out I would be pretty pessimistic. We literally only need a 90 mile shift now and we're both in warning level snowfall. IMHO- it does seem like a miss or scrape south is the most likely outcome but can't throw in the towel yet at all. We're 48-72 hours before knowing if we're in or out of the heavy stuff. 

If it goes down the way models have it now , talk about a gut punch lol.  

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro was a notable shift north between 12z yesterday and 0z last night. We'll know in about 45 minutes which direction 12z goes...

No one ever posted the 6z euro. I know the op only goes to 90 but the 6z EPS goes out past there. But very few have acces to it. 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I definitely like the the fact the 0z Eps does show at least a partial phase if not full phase . Nice having that in our back pockets for now. 

0z Eps 

 

Gonna be really interesting to see if it at least holds onto this idea (or even grows on it!)

[Interstate]

No one posted the UKIE... I am guessing it went south

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, Interstate said:

No one posted the UKIE... I am guessing it went south

Well south.  UKMET always seems to show what the Euro had about 12 - 24 hours ago though.  00z will probably be north of 12z.

[DDweatherman]

The 6z EPS was very promising from a graphic I saw on Maue's page this morning, lots of lows tucked closely into the coast, right off ORF. Mean snowfall in DC was an increase, but there were also a number of lows inland over NC and the Potomac. 

[WxUSAF]

Through 72, euro looks better than yesterday's 12z at least in all the ways I can see.  Confluence better, s/w deeper and northern s/w deeper and closer as well.  

 

How did last night's 0z look as a reminder?

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Through 72, euro looks better than yesterday's 12z at least in all the ways I can see.  Confluence better, s/w deeper and northern s/w deeper and closer as well.  

 

How did last night's 0z look as a reminder?

last night was a sig shift north for run over run. Snow did make it to i70 but was light. Sig increase in the SoVa jackpot. 

[nj2va]

3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

The 6z EPS was very promising from a graphic I saw on Maue's page this morning, lots of lows tucked closely into the coast, right off ORF. Mean snowfall in DC was an increase, but there were also a number of lows inland over NC and the Potomac. 

I didn't even know we had access to the 6z EPS until I saw PSU's post.  A cluster of lows definitely NW of the mean (which is right off OBX) with a few up the Bay.  I'd post but we can't do Euro maps unfortunately.