Bango Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, Coach B said: Look at the warm nose into middle TN/S KY! Dang, I hate to waste a chance at a system taking what would ordinarily be a perfect track. I really cant figure a warm nose like that with the LP over Jacksonville?? Why the heck are the 850s not dropping when it goes by to the south? There seems to be some wiggle room in the path, cmc and to some degree, the fv3, both slide the low into lower alabama. Considering we need all the help we can get, I hope we see more of the tracks like the 12z gfs, that slide it more easterly and off panama city by 50-100 miles. Ive noticed that the historic clown maps tended to have this progression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 We need some detailed UKMET maps....I have seen the meteocentre ones. Need those acscums maps or something with better than 24 hour increments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 17 minutes ago, Coach B said: Look at the warm nose into middle TN/S KY! Dang, I hate to waste a chance at a system taking what would ordinarily be a perfect track. I really cant figure a warm nose like that with the LP over Jacksonville?? Why the heck are the 850s not dropping when it goes by to the south? It's not a "true" Miller A, more of a hybrid Miller B. The warm nose in central TN is in response to the uv riding up into that region before pivoting into the coastal. 6z had that more sw flow up the valley compared to the 12z. My guess is it's pivoting just a little quicker which helps the eastern valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 So while the trailing 850 low is actually extending snow/precip chances back this way its also screwing up the thermals? In other words, the thermals are not as clear cut like a consolidated low pressure system would be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Fv3 is still frozen for me @96..stolen from se board, not too focus on micro level stuff but congrats kingsport/gate city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 UKIE clown. Pretty much north of 40 event on here. This is a clown map I've seen play out in reality a bunch of times. Hopefully though, the snowline can dip further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Coach B said: So while the trailing 850 low is actually extending snow/precip chances back this way its also screwing up the thermals? In other words, the thermals are not as clear cut like a consolidated low pressure system would be? Yes it's messing up the thermals in a big way. Here is an example from the epic 12z Euro and the current 00z...the 850 went from tracking south of TN thru MS/AL, to now being up in KY. The 850 has to track completely south of us or phase to the coastal sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyHamachek Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 So am I still looking ok to leave from Athens ga Friday evening heading to pigeon forge going to wedding Saturday in Gatlinburg and then heading to Dixie stampede Saturday night in pigeon forge and leaving Sunday mid morning to return to Athens ga? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 The WPC model disco. They will update post Euro but for now gave the most weight to the 00z Euro. Quote Good agreement is seen among global guidance with the trough position and depth until Saturday when timing and magnitude differences become apparent. The 12Z GFS is less progressive than prior runs and is closer to the consensus. This slowing brought the 12Z GFS enough into the fold to be considered for the preference. The preference is still weighted toward the 00Z ECMWF which is deeper and slower, but in line with the ECENS mean and 12Z NAM. The 00Z UKMET is as progressive as the 12Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 So am I still looking ok to leave from Athens ga Friday evening heading to pigeon forge going to wedding Saturday in Gatlinburg and then heading to Dixie stampede Saturday night in pigeon forge and leaving Sunday mid morning to return to Athens ga?Sunday is still up in the air but not looking all that bad at the moment. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, AndyHamachek said: So am I still looking ok to leave from Athens ga Friday evening heading to pigeon forge going to wedding Saturday in Gatlinburg and then heading to Dixie stampede Saturday night in pigeon forge and leaving Sunday mid morning to return to Athens ga? If you stick to I-75 heading back you should be ok. You may be able to pass through the blue ridge if the storm fell on the warmer side of possibilities but I wouldn't risk it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: The WPC model disco. They will update post Euro but for now gave the most weight to the 00z Euro. Interesting they would discount the UK. It was and remains progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, AndyHamachek said: So am I still looking ok to leave from Athens ga Friday evening heading to pigeon forge going to wedding Saturday in Gatlinburg and then heading to Dixie stampede Saturday night in pigeon forge and leaving Sunday mid morning to return to Athens ga? From some of what I'm seeing, Athens may have more issues than Pigeon Forge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 A rather highly anticipated 12z euro run awaits...kinda feeling cautiously optimistic here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 GEFS looks sort of the like UKIE snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 18 minutes ago, John1122 said: The WPC model disco. They will update post Euro but for now gave the most weight to the 00z Euro. Hopefully the 850 comes back south, the 00z roasted NE TN and spelled ice storm instead of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Hopefully the 850 comes back south, the 00z roasted NE TN and spelled ice storm instead of snow. Yeah, hopefully system speeds up some or hp slows down and keeps 850 south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I hate the 24 hour maps, but at 72 the Euro is almost identical to 96 at 12z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Out to 78, the Euro high is weaker and the system is a nudge north...not what we wanted, but the run isn't finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 At 96 it's colder at 850 in west Tn than it was at 120 yesterday, slightly slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Through 108 the snow map looks similar to the UKIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Through 96 the slp is a bit further south and looks to me a touch faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 102 the 850 vort is south of 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Should be a nice run for NE TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Vast improvement on 850 vort compared to 00z in Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Should be a nice run for NE TN. Glad to hear it. I look forward to seeing the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Heavy snow falling from Fentress to Johnson City and points N by 1pm Sunday. Very borderline with mixing over Knoxville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastKnox Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, BlunderStorm said: Glad to hear it. I look forward to seeing the map. looking good for NE TN at 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: Glad to hear it. I look forward to seeing the map. Southwest Virginia crush job...all of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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