Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 @Carvers GapHere is the UKMET from 0z: 500 mb with mslp 48 hour progression and detailed mslp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 FWIW the 6z NAM 3k IR satellite looks like the system is further north over the SW and Great Basin than the 6z RGEM at the same time (54 hours). Little differences there may have big differences down the road, but as to what that means for us, it's hard to say. Looks like the differences at the time are caused by the N. vort max in our energy being maybe 100 miles south on the RGEM vs. the NAM. As we saw from the overnight Euro, precisely where those vorts pass means everything when it comes to precip types for places where it is very marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I think part of what is going on...we are trying to match models with what will eventually become reality. If reality is a true Noreaster that goes from Louisiana to SE GA, up the coast, and impacts the I-95 corridor...that changes things quite a bit. I mentioned that yesterday, and still am looking over my shoulder for that. Looks like the overall track though is a good one. Temps are the issue, and that might not be resolved for several runs. Put me in the northwest quadrant of a storm, and I will take my chances. It won't work out every time, but that is where big snows happen. I would rather be there more times than not. On to the 12z suite...By 0z tonight we should be getting an idea of where this his heading. The trends from last night to tonight on the operational will begin to outweigh the ensembles...but the ensembles still matter with so many varying tracks out there. Time to watch trends...and those admittedly were not the best at 0z. At 6z, the trends are not all that bad. That tells me that models are still wobbling from run-to-run, and understandably not dialed-in yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Good morning everyone. Well looks like I was "snowed in" for a quarter of inch of snow. I don't care why I'm just glad to have a break midway through the week for model watching. After viewing 6z I'm feeling more comfortable than I was last night. The ICON has believe it or not improved but is far from ideal here and certainly not in Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: I think part of what is going on...we are trying to match models with what will eventually become reality. If reality is a true Noreaster that goes from Louisiana to SE GA, up the coast, and impacts the I-95 corridor...that changes things quite a bit. I mentioned that yesterday, and still am looking over my shoulder for that. Looks like the overall track though is a good one. Temps are the issue, and that might not be resolved for several runs. Put me in the northwest quadrant of a storm, and I will take my chances. It won't work out every time, but that is where big snows happen. I would rather be there more times than not. On to the 12z suite...By 0z tonight we should be getting an idea of where this his heading. The trends from last night to tonight on the operational will begin to outweigh the ensembles...but the ensembles still matter with so many varying tracks out there. Time to watch trends...and those admittedly were not the best at 0z. At 6z, the trends are not all that bad. That tells me that models are still wobbling from run-to-run, and understandably not dialed-in yet. Good point on the wobbling and not dialed in, here is a good example of this on the 6z GEFS...basically almost a coinflip at TYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 26 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Good point on the wobbling and not dialed in, here is a good example of this on the 6z GEFS...basically almost a coinflip at TYS. @TellicoWx What site do you use to get those charts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Measurement of 2.25 inches here this morning. Hopefully, last nights trends for our upcoming storm don't continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Incoming 12z gfs prolly gonna end as a smash fest for upper east tn valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 12Z NAM of course at 84, but still not a bad look for feature placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 There's almost always that worrisome, what I call the "Tennessee Valley effect". Warm nose shooting up the valley between the Cumberlands and the Smokies. Also, another aspect is the downsloping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Thought the totals would be more clownish after this look...pretty much the perfect path, which is what it's apparently gonna have to do in conjunction with all the other variables Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Temperature issues in the northern Valley for sure. Looks frozen...but what? Snow, sleet, rain, ice, snow. 12z GFS looks decent in terms of track. Boy, 1 mb difference in those highs is the difference. I am a little more concerned about ice now around TRI. If this comes in at night, this could be a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 There's almost always that worrisome, what I call the "Tennessee Valley effect". Warm nose shooting up the valley between the Cumberlands and the Smokies. Also, another aspect is the downsloping. Unfortunately I know all about this. I’m close to that cutoff point where 10 miles up the road is all snow. Has happened many times. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bango said: Thought the totals would be more clownish after this look...pretty much the perfect path, which is what it's apparently gonna have to do in conjunction with all the other variables Downslope got us a bit. I-81 westward would do OK w that look. Closer to the mountains and the air column dries out due to sinking air. Overall, not a bad look. I suspect the GEFS mean will look nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: 12Z NAM of course at 84, but still not a bad look for feature placement. Sure wish the system would speed up as to get ahead of the HP. As it stands , it appears the hp is moving faster and building further east. Still think we'll be ok as long as it just remains at least over the top of the lp. as the move east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Afraid the game is over for anyone SW of 40/81. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bango said: Thought the totals would be more clownish after this look...pretty much the perfect path, which is what it's apparently gonna have to do in conjunction with all the other variables But what a beauty that slp is. Almost a perfect comma. Have to think there is more snow west of the Apps than that. I will take that look any day...but let's just hope this is a preview of the winter pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Sure wish the system would speed up as to get ahead of the HP. As it stands , it appears the hp is moving faster and building further east. Still think we'll be ok as long as it just remains at least over the top of the lp. as the move east. Yeah the thing that worries me is the High seems to be pretty progressive in its move east. I am way more comfortable with the high sitting around the southern end of Lake Michigan. Or at least north or NW of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: Afraid the game is over for anyone SW of 40/81. . If anyone gets their hands on one of those 12z UKMET maps, that might give us a clue as to the Euro at 12z. Would be bonus material if we can get one of those w accums. As for the proverbial for for the Central Valley, I would probably give it to 0z. But agree,not great trends outside of NE TN...and we may get trended out of this as well up here. I was pleased to see the GFS stop the northward jog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: Yeah the thing that worries me is the High seems to be pretty progressive in its move east. I am way more comfortable with the high sitting around the southern end of Lake Michigan. Or at least north or NW of us. I am just glad we are not dealing w a pesky low over the Lakes. Remember that winter where we would get a great pattern, but a low would be there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6z GFS vs 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 It helps that the storm begins overnight. I don't think it will help us much off the surface though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Big improvement in the 850s as the comma comes overhead in East TN. Also, increased the precip rates which may translate to the surface better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 24 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: 12Z NAM of course at 84, but still not a bad look for feature placement. Not a bad look at all Shawn, it’s nice to have the short range models in range now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 16 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Afraid the game is over for anyone SW of 40/81. . Hush Powell!! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 52 minutes ago, Wurbus said: @TellicoWx What site do you use to get those charts? WxBell site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Big improvement in the 850s as the comma comes overhead in East TN. Also, increased the precip rates which may translate to the surface better.Wow that’s 50/75 miles to the good. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I am just glad we are not dealing w a pesky low over the Lakes. Remember that winter where we would get a great pattern, but a low would be there?Yes!!! That was awful, over and over. Think that was 2 years back.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Next frame you can see the 925s response with plenty of moisture still on going. Just one model run, but a step in right direction for GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 16 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Big improvement in the 850s as the comma comes overhead in East TN. Also, increased the precip rates which may translate to the surface better. Look at the warm nose into middle TN/S KY! Dang, I hate to waste a chance at a system taking what would ordinarily be a perfect track. I really cant figure a warm nose like that with the LP over Jacksonville?? Why the heck are the 850s not dropping when it goes by to the south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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