John1122 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 12z GFS Rain/Snow radar simulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, John1122 said: 12z GFS Rain/Snow radar simulation. Same trowel feature as euro...onto 18z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Same trowel feature as euro...onto 18z!Now the party gets started . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 hours ago, John1122 said: No kidding. Just casually drops 32 inches in my backyard. Just preserve these clowns, we'll never see their like again. John, we might be digging to get out of our house if that came to pass, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, *Flash* said: Per OHX... Famous last words; they are historically overly conservative; guarantee that it will change by this time tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I went and double checked the 0z Euro. It had 10-12" of snow on the AM run in the Tri-Cities region, but those were not isolated amounts. Basically the area expanded southward and upward at 12z. Many of the same features were present. Folks, what time does the Euro roll tonight? Might set the alarm clock. I know some of ya'll are gonna be up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, *Flash* said: I concur. Can't blame them though. Outside Winter Storm Jonas (1/22-23/2016), BNA has seen more whiffs than hits the past decade. You and me both. I can't allow myself to get too giddy over the 12z Euro until the trend establishes itself. Yes, I would concur, the snowdome is safe and sound and they are expecting it to hold this year as well. Though, as we have alluded to, if modeling is still showing the same thing especially by Thursday at this time, then well, perhaps we might get a plowable snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, *Flash* said: I concur. Can't blame them though. Outside Winter Storm Jonas (1/22-23/2016), BNA has seen more whiffs than hits the past decade. You and me both. I can't allow myself to get too giddy over the 12z Euro until the trend establishes itself. Right there with you. I will add that we have had two straight Euro runs right now with big numbers. I think the Smokies got north of 27" on the 0z run. The ensembles are what I can barely get over. Those are some big numbers on the EPS and GEFS. Anytime I see a snow mean over 4", that is a good signal...and those have been in our region for many runs. So, right now I think we just watch trends. What I want to see are the ingredients that we have saw from the Euro at 0z/12z which are a nice track, high pressure over the top, and precip feeding in off the Atlantic. Models have been spitting out huge number for this system for a while...but like you, I want to seen where the focus is from here. Lettuce(intended spelling error) not forget about the 12z UKMET. That looked pretty good as well. On to the next suite!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 The UKIE map Carvers linked to earlier. Keep in mind, it's likely still snowing when the model run ends at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 You know something to think about. I think it a very high likelihood that the mountains get significant snowfall. If we get a warm-up and get a significant amount of rain later next week, that is not a good recipe at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Hey @John1122, your map isn't showing up on my end. Looks like it's behind a log-in wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, John1122 said: The UKIE map Carvers linked to earlier. Keep in mind, it's likely still snowing when the model run ends at 144. Get an error message could just be me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I had to upload it at a separate hosting site. Should be working now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyHamachek Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 We are supposed to go to pigeon forge Friday night and leave Sunday morning and head back to Athens georgia what and when is it supposed to do anything??? Sorry if not allowed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I'm not sure if this would break any rules but he could simply use the snip tool and grab that image. 2 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: Get an error message could just be me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I should probably be shamed for posting the 18z NAM at 84, but here it is. Give me that 1040 high and that slp where it is, and let's roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, AndyHamachek said: We are supposed to go to pigeon forge Friday night and leave Sunday morning and head back to Athens georgia what and when is it supposed to do anything??? Sorry if not allowed On the Euro the snow doesn't begin until Sunday around noon in Pigeon Forge. The heaviest snow that falls there falls overnight Sunday through the day Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I should probably be shamed for posting the 18z NAM at 84, but here it is. Give me that 1040 high and that slp where it is, and let's roll. It looks like we're about to get NAM'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, AndyHamachek said: We are supposed to go to pigeon forge Friday night and leave Sunday morning and head back to Athens georgia what and when is it supposed to do anything??? Sorry if not allowed Your questions are welcome this is what this thread is for. There is certainly the possibility of some snow down the eastern valley after the storm starts to head NE up the coast. Nothing is set in stone but if a quick changeover happened you could have a rough drive home. Regardless your trip is going to be cold and wet (think 37 in a downpour). If you attempt to visit the Smokies you will almost certainly be met with Heavy snowfall as the road through Newfound Gap goes over 5000ft in elevation. I would not recommend visiting Cherokee, NC from Pigeon Forge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, AndyHamachek said: We are supposed to go to pigeon forge Friday night and leave Sunday morning and head back to Athens georgia what and when is it supposed to do anything??? Sorry if not allowed Looks like you already have received some good advice from other posters...You know, I think I would just keep an eye on what the National Weather Service says and keep reading here. I would think by the time that you leave, that any potential watches or warnings would be posted. Not sure the direction that you choose to take from Athens, but even it just snows in the mountains at elevation that might limit your route to just I-75. I would not cancel anything until at the earliest Thursday. One time I was telling some folks that I worked with how much snow we were going to get(there was a heavy snow warning in place for the record...lol) and they canceled some plans to Asheville. It did not snow a flake. That happened in the early 2000s. I learned my lesson then. It was at that point, I think I decided to start looking at weather models myself... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyHamachek Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 We have a wedding Saturday at 3 in Gatlinburg then Dixie stampede Saturday night and leave Sunday morning heading back to Athens ga we r not planning on going to North Carolina I know we go thru there to get to pigeon forge come up 23 to 74 to I believe I-40 and then come in from there I remember last year same weekend we came up to pigeon forge and passed by the bush beans factory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Minor differences out to 72 on the GFS. The HP is about 75-100 miles SW of it's position on 12z. LP is in the same spot 1mb stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Out to 84 the HP in Iowa is not moving out as fast as it did at 12z. This should help us out if it doesn't race ahead of the LP as quickly it will help suppress WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Through 96 the HP kicked it in gear and is further south and east than it was at 12z. Precip shield is suppressed by about 75 miles, was just over the KY border at 12, now it's along 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 18z is probably going to be unimpressive for anyone outside of Western NC. Low is flatter/slower and I think much weaker. It looks like it's sliding off the coast before turning up and may be a little further east. Banana high over the top in Wisconsin/Iowa and Northern Virginia with a great track, but once again the GFS pumps the 850s up into Ohio. Edit: It winds up and slows down over the Outer Banks. Surface temperatures are hilariously stubborn over East Tennessee during the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I look at the shape of the storm on the GFS(nice comma), the track, and where the highs are...I have to think that is snow west of the Apps if that occurs. I might be wrong. And...that actually looked even better than its 12z run. Not sure what happened to the thermal profile. I just think everything is hanging on about a one or two degree edge, and the slightest nudge moves things. If anything, it looks like there is some agreement today on the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 The 850 low on the 18z GFS is about 150 miles north of the same on the Euro at hour 120. That makes all the difference. The overall trend over the past few runs for the GFS with the 850 low has been slower and slightly further south. Euro trend has been mostly slower. The GFS takes that feature up toward Cumberland Gap over time and the Euro aims it at the SW tip of NC. I've seen a lot of discussion of the GFS (not just the FV3) thermal profiles from Mets in and around the forum and it usually isn't a resounding endorsement of the GFS. Can Euro be Dr. Yes for once? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 ...and a great looking conveyer belt at 150 is modeled just like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 SWVA and Eastern Ky make out okay on the GFS. The thermal profile is nonsensical on the GFS for Tennessee. At one point the model output is showing rain with the 534 thickness line over the area and Sub-freezing 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 The GFS really wants to let the 850 low die over East TN. If you look at the wind barbs it literally just sits here and spins for over 30 hours. Not saying that's right or that I want it in any way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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