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December 8-10 Storm Discussion

Holston_River_Rambler

By Holston_River_Rambler,
in Tennessee Valley

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Daniel Boone

Daniel Boone

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The great thing about this event is that it will happen tonight.  With no sun and strong precip rates, the air column will cool.  I suspect we don't see much until the sun sets.  Most models are showing a very brief start w light rain to mix to snow.  As 1234 stated above, if the switch is quick...game one.  We want really strong precip rates.

With the low dp and Temps upper 30s here now, should be no problem starting as snow.

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Windspeed

Windspeed

Posted
Posted

I have increased my expectations for the total at my location south of Bristol near the Holston River. My original thinking was 4-6" inches, but these late runs so close to event have me convinced to go higher. I expect 5:1, then 8:1 ratios as the column cools, then perhaps 10:1 between 7-10AM. Thinking 7-10 inches of cement. I had thought some nose might reach us here, perhaps enhanced by some downsloping, but that may be a minimal effect versus rapid cooling of the column. We'll be lucky to keep power.

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Reb

Reb

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, that place is awesome.  My favorite place in Knoxville to eat.  Great place to sit back and consider your weather options and menu options.  Keep us posted on the temps and precip type.

It’s my favorite place anywhere! I grew up down the street. Precip shield has shifted somewhat south and I haven’t seen a drop of frozen. That being said I’m inside ordering my meal. 

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BlunderStorm

BlunderStorm

Posted
Posted
Just now, Windspeed said:

I have increased my expectations for the total at my location south of Bristol near the Holston River. My original thinking was 4-6" inches, but these late runs so close to event have me convinced to go higher. I expect 5:1, then 8:1 ratios as the column cools, then perhaps 10:1 between 7-10AM. Thinking 7-10 inches of cement. We'll be lucky to keep power with that.

My original thinking was 4-7 in when the NW trend began. Then I bumped my expectations to 5-8 last night.  Now with some doubts i'm going with 6-10 in.

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BlunderStorm

BlunderStorm

Posted
Posted
Just now, AMZ8990 said:

I like how your totals got bigger when you had some doubts!  :D

I can't help it... It's just been so long since I've seen a snowfall over 6 inches. The past two winters I have nickled and dimed my way to average-ish seasonal totals. Something is bound to go wrong and I just can't pin it down! Haha. :P

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Shocker0

Shocker0

Posted
Posted

633119315_20181208_0600191.thumb.jpg.bc9fd2076b8af2c7c2139c8d3e16e941.jpg

 

We had some snow early this morning in Crossville. There hasn't been heavy precipitation all day though. It then started snowing again around noon today even with temperatures at 35 degrees. Interesting to see if we get anymore though. TWC insists on all rain the rest of the night with over an inch of rainfall, with snow eventually moving in tomorrow night. Would be nice to get a decent snow though.

 

I was surprised to see it snowing with air temperatures at 35 though, since  we were supposed to be all rain today.

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AMZ8990

AMZ8990

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

I can't help it... It's just been so long since I've seen a snowfall over 6 inches. The past two winters I have nickled and dimed my way to average-ish seasonal totals. Something is bound to go wrong and I just can't pin it down! Haha. :P

Haha, I’m just messing with ya bro.  I know what you mean too.  It’s always a blast when you get those big time storms versus small time stuff.

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BlunderStorm

BlunderStorm

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Shocker0 said:

We had some snow early this morning in Crossville. There hasn't been heavy precipitation all day though. It then started snowing again around noon today even with temperatures at 35 degrees. Interesting to see if we get anymore though. TWC insists on all rain the rest of the night with over an inch of rainfall, with snow eventually moving in tomorrow night. Would be nice to get a decent snow though.

TWC has been extremely dismissive east of the Blue Ridge. I'm not sure what model they were using this morning but they only gave Johnson City 0.5 inches of snow for the entirety of the event. Which at this point I think is laughable. So you may be in for more than you think but I can't say for sure everywhere varies.

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Shocker0

Shocker0

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, BlunderStorm said:

TWC has been extremely dismissive east of the Blue Ridge. I'm not sure what model they were using this morning but they only gave Johnson City 0.5 inches of snow for the entirety of the event. Which at this point I think is laughable. So you may be in for more than you think but I can't say for sure everywhere varies.

Yeah that's pretty crazy. Early in the week they were showing decent amounts but in the last couple days they went to giving us all rain for the entire event and haven't really backed off that. Even the NWS gives us a solid chance at snow, but minimal amounts. From all the models I've seen though, they're showing considerably more snow for us than any of the forecast stations are.

 

Either way it's good to know that we've actually gotten SOME snow out of it already even when it wasn't supposed to. Maybe gives the people east of us some more hope that it actually will snow lol.

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Holston_River_Rambler

Holston_River_Rambler

Posted
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Posted

Wanted to go check out the bright band over Maryville since I had a couple of almost too wet to be  snowflakes. On the way saw Reb had already answered that question for me. Needed out of the house anyway. 

Ended up on look rock: https://imgur.com/a/GCiwrhZ

One image is looking SW down the valley and the other to the smokies. Yeah I know there’s a camera but that’s no fun! Besides I couldn’t hear the pack of hounds in valley otherwise!

5-10 mph wind from the ENE and around 36-37 degrees. Still kind of pretty 

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, realdeal2414 said:

Hey Carver I noticed you were in west Sullivan county and that is where I live as well...what’s your predictions on our part of this area?

A lot.  LOL.  I have in-house estimates that only my family knows, and then I have a public guess. If this switches over early enough and we don't have mixing per the Euro(it has no mixing), I like just above the high end numbers of the point and click forecast for the NWS.  Roughly 9-10".  I could easily be wrong.  I have found snow predictions are not an expertise of mine, well that an November temp predictions.  LOL.  So take that with a huge grain of salt.

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Blue Ridge

Blue Ridge

Posted
Posted
Honestly stunned by it. I guess they were waiting on the GFS to cave because the Euro/NAM/CMC/FV3/RGEM/WRF/3K weren't enough.

I still think it’s pretty damn conservative. I noted the WSWs are in effect through noon Monday, but the wording suggests the event tapers off tomorrow morning. I think the current warning products outside of the mountains are not taking the possible backside thump into consideration.

 

Edit: point and click gives central Greene Co 5-10”. That’s in line with my thoughts.

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