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December 8-10 Storm Discussion

Holston_River_Rambler

By Holston_River_Rambler,
in Tennessee Valley

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PowellVolz

PowellVolz

Posted
Posted
I cannot see how MRX can ignore the trends this morning. I really wish if they were just going with their gut on this they would tell us that and I would respect it. It’s better that way than leaving everyone scratching their heads wondering what they are looking at, especially the northern plateau areas which look almost as good as the NE valley.
 
 
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Supposed to be Gut instead of guy. Won’t edit for some reason


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TellicoWx

TellicoWx

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

I cannot see how MRX can ignore the trends this morning. I really wish if they were just going with their gut on this they would tell us that and I would respect it. It’s better that way than leaving everyone scratching their heads wondering what they are looking at, especially the northern plateau areas which look almost as good as the NE valley.

 

 

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They erred on the side of caution. At the afternoon update, we will be roughly right at the 18 hr lead time window, and we will see an expansion or issuance of a WWA  (prob knox/Loudon area north). In the public's eyes, it's easier to upgrade then it is the cancel (people always remember the blown forecast to the bad more). We have all seen models lose a system, that was very consistent, between 24-18 hrs out and bust...so they waited for the edge of the issuance envelope.

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Math/Met

Math/Met

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, tnweathernut said:

I see MathMet lurking, hope you are doing well.  We all probably MBY focused on some level, but I’d like to know if you have an opinion of the mesoscale models showing the downslope this AM?  If your prior opinion still stands no worries about a response,  I know you have to be busy....lol

overall modeling seems to be converging on a heavy northeast (maybe much of east) TN snow.  It’s funny I’m almost obsessing about the trailing piece of energy as much as the main system.  I find that discrete feature fascinating!

To be honest, it does concern me that it shows up on the models.  I still don’t see much of a surface response to potential downslope on the surface wind or temperature products, so it could be overdone. But models are trying to depict something happening in those areas, so it’s hard to completely dismiss that. I have a lot less experience with this type of setup compared to true downslope events.

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BlunderStorm

BlunderStorm

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

 


Do you agree with me or am I off here? I’m thinking they may add everyone N and E of Knoxville to the WSW and go with an advisory for Knox Co.


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Tough question I've been mostly out for the morning and haven't really looked hard at the models. I'm feeling pretty confident they will put an advisory in Knox county. I'm not really sure they will implace a WSW North and East of there but I'm willing to bet they begrudgingly will. I would see the WSW brought down to Grainger, Union, Jefferson, and Sevier as the line.

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1234snow

1234snow

Posted
Posted

In my amateur opinion Jackson KY needs to issue some warnings for their southeast counties and Morristown needs to issue warnings for Hawkins, Hancock and Greene Counties. Also they need to expand the warnings into John’s area. I’m fairly confident John will see warning criteria snows. He does very well in these scenarios where rain switches to snow thanks to dynamic cooling.

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AMZ8990

AMZ8990

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, AndyHamachek said:

How’s pigeon forge looking? We r here when do we need to think about getting out of dodge and making a run for Atlanta 

Pigeon forge looks ok right now, I’d just keep an eye on weather.gov the rest of the day too see if that changes.  I think you’ll be ok though, right now it looks like they might get an inch or so.  

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AMZ8990

AMZ8990

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

In my opinion they should have called a winter storm warning hours ago for Mercer.

With it coming in at night I’m sure they are being more frugal with the warnings because they know most people won’t be out and about that late tonight anyways.  Especially with the hazardous weather outlook already in place, I’d bet you get to WSW criteria by nightfall though.  They also probably want to be 100% correct in the areas they give warnings too,  so they’re waiting for a little more data so they can have a better overall depiction of the storm and it’s track. 

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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted

For anyone expecting MRX to change their products, I'll be shocked if they do. Maybe they'll add a row to the WWA. In the past the snow is on the ground before they consider changing things. This week we had 1.5 to 3 inches here with no advisory. Even though most models were actually showing those amounts. I had 7.5 once and 5 were on the ground before a  snow advisory product was issued. 9 inches under a WWA that never upgraded and they knew it was happening. In 2009-10 I had over 40 inches of snow with multiple over 5 inches and was under a winter storm warning 1 time the entire season when I got 13 inches.

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Math/Met

Math/Met

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Math/Met said:

To be honest, it does concern me that it shows up on the models.  I still don’t see much of a surface response to potential downslope on the surface wind or temperature products, so it could be overdone. But models are trying to depict something happening in those areas, so it’s hard to completely dismiss that. I have a lot less experience with this type of setup compared to true downslope events.

To expand on this discussion. There could be a shadowing effect right along the mountains that decreases precip. I’m not sure that it would be as expansive as some models are showing. Possibly a narrow region right along the mountains. There could also be an area just northwest of that where surface convergence would actually act to increase lift and enhance banding of precip. That’s just my thoughts.  As you all are well aware, trying to predict wind flow through and over complex terrain is not easy.

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AMZ8990

AMZ8990

Posted
Posted
Just now, John1122 said:

For anyone expecting MRX to change their products, I'll be shocked if they do. Maybe they'll add a row to the WWA. In the past the snow is on the ground before they consider changing things. This week we had 1.5 to 3 inches here with no advisory. Even though most models were actually showing those amounts. I had 7.5 once and 5 were on the ground before a  snow advisory product was issued. 9 inches under a WWA that never upgraded and they knew it was happening. In 2009-10 I had over 40 inches of snow with multiple over 5 inches and was under a winter storm warning 1 time the entire season when I got 13 inches.

Wow, it’s funny how different the criteria is for warnings in different parts of the country.  Down here, 2-4 is WSW criteria, lol.

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1234snow

1234snow

Posted
Posted
I believe it is a tough call up my way. Still under a watch 


Like Blunderstorm I’m fairly confident that the northern edge will make it to Bluefield. That is if the 3k NAM/RGEM are correct. That’s a very good combo to have on your side. You will also be 100% snow and will have true 10/1 ratios. I would be concerned with snow dropping off 77 toward Beckley.

I would love to see pictures of the tunnels in Bluefield and Bland, VA with a big snow. I’ve done some work in those tunnels this year.
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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

If the 12z model suite doesn't get the blood pumping, nothing will.  That does it for the Euro and CMC in terms of tracking the event.  When they run again, the event will be under way.  No idea if they verify.  I have been doing this for a long time.  I am pretty sure that is the biggest "last run" that I have seen for NE TN.  You always want to see totals increasing as you approach an event or at least within the same range.  I will have to see it to believe it...but those numbers, even if halved, are a pretty significant event on the Euro.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

Like Blunderstorm I’m fairly confident that the northern edge will make it to Bluefield. That is if the 3k NAM/RGEM are correct. That’s a very good combo to have on your side. You will also be 100% snow and will have true 10/1 ratios. I would be concerned with snow dropping off 77 toward Beckley.

I would love to see pictures of the tunnels in Bluefield and Bland, VA with a big snow. I’ve done some work in those tunnels this year.

 

Have we seen a bigger close for our area than that 12z suite?

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