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December 8-10 Storm Discussion

Holston_River_Rambler

By Holston_River_Rambler,
in Tennessee Valley

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Bango

Bango

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

Wow. That map is AMAZING. I would like to cash in now please. I am still expecting Knoxville to get a warm nose (just to temper my excitement and climatology), but if we could get half that I would be pleased. Looks like most of the rest of the forum can cash in as well!

On another note, I'm not getting any work done this week. :)

Retire indeed, it literally would be the type of storm youd prolly never see again?

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PowellVolz

PowellVolz

Posted
Posted
Hopefully the Knoxville peeps will check back in.  Those are just crazy snow totals.  From an analysis standpoint, the high pressure over the top was 1-2mb stronger and pressing more than 0z.  You could see it right away on that run.  It also did not get out of the way.  Looks like the TROWAL(?) pivoted over this area.  


North Knox Co checking in. I’m usually here but I don’t post much.


.
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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

You know, I have no idea of that ever comes to pass.  That is an awesome and extreme run.  It almost grabbed an extra fetch off the Atlantic.  I would love to completely discount the run so as not to put myself through the "misery" of it(the track) not verifying...but it did almost the same thing at 0z.  That is at least the second run of its type.

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1234snow

1234snow

Posted
Posted
I think I may retire from the wx hobby deal after this run.  Might as well go out on top.
1083676182_ScreenShot2018-12-04at1_39_01PM.png.f5b5b0d4c0252e9c786f37055c838cb7.png


I’ve been following storms on various forums starting out in 2008 on the old Accuweather forums and Toot’s old forum and I will have to say that the 12z has the highest totals I have ever seen modeled by any model for NETN and surrounding areas. That goes down #1 of all time for fantasy runs.

That being said I’m at work and haven’t had to chance to look at why that run was different from the 0z Euro.
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TellicoWx

TellicoWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

You know, I have no idea of that ever comes to pass.  That is an awesome and extreme run.  It almost grabbed an extra fetch off the Atlantic.  I would love to completely discount the run so as not to put myself through the miser of it not verifying...but it did almost the same thing at 0z.  That is at least the second run of its type.

EPS will be interesting..previous 3 have had similar members as that OP run for TYS and slowly increasing each run. 00z had 7 members with 6"+ output.

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Holston_River_Rambler

Holston_River_Rambler

Posted
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Posted

The pieces were still there in nearly the same places at 0z, but still quite a bit of bounce. It was all there this time. Just the right amount of NE confluence. Just the right size and angle for the W. ridge. Just the right timing for both chunks of energy. Man I wish this were the first run after the energy came on shore! 

2018-12-04_14-03-52.jpg

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted
Just now, 1234snow said:

 


I’ve been following storms on various forums starting out in 2008 on the old Accuweather forums and Toot’s old forum and I will have to say that the 12z has the highest totals I have ever seen modeled by any model for NETN and surrounding areas. That goes down #1 of all time for fantasy runs.

That being said I’m at work and haven’t had to chance to look at why that run was different from the 0z Euro.

 

That is what is crazy.  It is not very different at all.  It just sort of doubled-down.  SLP slides by and goes up the coast.  The precip grabs moisture off the Atlantic a bit more so this time....but basically the same track.  I have no huge visions of those totals IMBY, but the track is basically the same track from 0z.  The high was a bit stronger as noted earlier.  The high pressed south more.  You could see it right away.  But I went back and toggled the 0z and 12z, and they are very similar runs.  

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TellicoWx

TellicoWx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

The pieces were still there in nearly the same places at 0z, but still quite a bit of bounce. It was all there this time. Just the right amount of NE confluence. Just the right size and angle for the W. ridge. Just the right timing for both chunks of energy. Man I wish this were the first run after the energy came on shore! 

2018-12-04_14-03-52.jpg

Not to sound too Willy Wonka, but if that NS energy were to ever speed up and fully phase, this storm could be even crazier.

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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted

I'd be giddy with 25 percent of the Euro verifying here. 00z Euro had 12-16 inches here. The UKIE is 12+. The FV3 has been throwing around 20 inch totals at various times. So it definitely has the potential to be the biggest bust ever based on modeling.

I've seen the DGEX throw out 30 inches at day 7 before. Never seen there Euro show more that 15 inches imby at any range since I started following weather that I can recall.

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kvskelton

kvskelton

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Bango said:

Retire indeed, it literally would be the type of storm youd prolly never see again?

Maybe, maybe not. Us old folks remember the Blizzard of '93 like it was yesterday (I hate to admit I was already 28 years old when it hit). While it wouldn't be the "same type of storm" this run verifying would be in the same league with it for being a memorable event! I hope to live long enough to see another 20"+ snow in our area and be able to enjoy it! LOL Of course I'm already at the age where if I die tomorrow no one will go "Oh he was so YOUNG!" :D

We've all been through these runs before and know how crucial each little wiggle and/or wobble can be. I'm just going to sit back and enjoy this run until the next one breaks my heart. Or not. ;)Thanks for all the great disco folks!!!

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Stovepipe

Stovepipe

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, kvskelton said:

Maybe, maybe not. Us old folks remember the Blizzard of '93 like it was yesterday (I hate to admit I was already 28 years old when it hit). While it wouldn't be the "same type of storm" this run verifying would be in the same league with it for being a memorable event! I hope to live long enough to see another 20"+ snow in our area and be able to enjoy it! LOL Of course I'm already at the age where if I die tomorrow no one will go "Oh he was so YOUNG!" :D

We've all been through these runs before and know how crucial each little wiggle and/or wobble can be. I'm just going to sit back and enjoy this run until the next one breaks my heart. Or not. ;)Thanks for all the great disco folks!!!

Being older and wiser now, if this storm pans out, you're going to be well stocked on cigarettes and beer and not bother the police, right?  

:guitar:

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Stovepipe said:

Being older and wiser now, if this storm pans out, you're going to be well stocked on cigarettes and beer and not bother the police, right?  

:guitar:

....And no sledding on dumpster lids up in the Fort(Sanders for non-Knoxville folks).  I took some hills at UT on a cafeteria tray on the backside of the engineering campus and along the edges of some parking garages that my older, wiser self sort of cringes about when I walk by those areas at football games.  

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kvskelton

kvskelton

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

Being older and wiser now, if this storm pans out, you're going to be well stocked on cigarettes and beer and not bother the police, right?  

:guitar:

In all fairness, it would be Buffalo Trace and I only smoke if I'm on fire! :D Good to see you here Stove!

(My apologies for the OT post folks. No more of those from me today!) 

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Blue Ridge

Blue Ridge

Posted
Posted

Hot off the press: MRX's abbreviated afternoon disco. 

For Friday and Saturday, strengthening southwest flow from southern
Plains trough will increase the isentropic lift over the area.
Depending on how fast the precipitation moves into the region, the
precipitation may begin as a mixture of snow and sleet, and then
change to all of rain except possibly for far eastern Tennessee
Mountains.

For Saturday night and Sunday, the jet dynamic forcing for the upper
trough will produce strong omega along and just above the fronto-
genetic slope (around 500mb). Deep synoptic forcing will help cool
the vertical column with precipitation likely changing back to snow
over southwest Virginia, northeast Tennessee (especially mountains),
and Smoky Mountains. Main rain (or possibly rain/snow mix) elsewhere.

For Sunday night and Monday, upper dynamics strengthens the
surface/850mb pulling the warm conveyor belt into the northern half
of the area with a deformation zone. This will keep chances of
mainly snowfall going with additional snowfall anticipated. Will
include this potential snowstorm within the HWO.

System pulls out for Tuesday and Wednesday with drier conditions.
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