realdeal2414 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: . Wow by looking at this map it has a time stamp of 10am tomorrow morning. I thought this mess wasn’t moving into til late tomorrow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Even ratio'd the FV3 was pretty good for a lot of us. The ice threat continues to be modeled in NW Tennessee and Northern Middle Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 On the first of the nowcast side of things I'm seeing some snow showers west of Nashville. I wonder if that could translate to anything for them in the early morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Ohh... you guys are going to love the Euro tonight! I don't have the space for an image so go check it out yourself haha. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018120800/819-w-373-n/significant-weather/20181208-0300z.html And Touchdown SWVA! And the Extra Point is Good! The game is tied 30 to 30 and will go into overtime. With the Euro re-affirming I'm still in the running for a winter storm since the tough runs a day ago I can stay excited about this. The suppression let up thank goodness. Of course now it's less than 24 hours until the start of this thing. Can things go wrong for us including myself ? Yes and I acknowledge that. It's time for the models to be judged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Ohh... you guys are going to love the Euro tonight! I don't have the space for an image so go check it out yourself haha.https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018120800/819-w-373-n/significant-weather/20181208-0300z.html And Touchdown SWVA! And the Extra Point is Good! The game is tied 30 to 30 and will go into overtime.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 It put me back in the game also. South Knox 1” me 4-6”. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Looks like more snow down the plateau also. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Euro rolled! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Fell asleep. What did I miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Fell asleep. What did I miss? Not that much, our totals mostly stayed similiar to other model outputs for upper east tn, but it beefed up some of the surrounding areas and did away with downsloaping (I guess) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Looks like the snow showers depicted on radar have expanded from just north of Dyersburg to BNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 The last minute, northwest jog was the real deal. For posterity.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 0z Euro text data(from f5wx.com) for Johnson City has ratios around 8:1 with a total of 10.1 inches. KTRI and Greeneville are about 9 inches. The ratios might be slightly lower than that, but it gives you a general idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 00z EPS has finally synced up with the OP fairly well on individual members. Shows how the missing data ingest on the 12z run really plays into the chaos theory side of models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 14 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: 00z EPS has finally synced up with the OP fairly well on individual members. Shows how the missing data ingest on the 12z run really plays into the chaos theory side of models. Yep. The EPS is in line w the operational now. I am not even posting the map because they look basically the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 As of the midnight disco, WPC is pretty much going with the Euro and EPS for it's forecast package. Say the others have too many issues with timing and temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Now that we are starting to enter the nowcast as far as the initial front end and for western areas, 2 things that kinda standout comparing the current radar and 3k NAM. 1) the dry air over SW TN is slightly stronger than modeled and the precip over N GA is ahead of schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 06 NAM is rolling, hour 15 precip shield is maybe 30 miles south. High is 1mb stronger, 1037 over Ohio and Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Big snows in North and north central Arkansas, big ice storm underway in west Tennessee at 21 hours. Snow overhead in my area. 850s are sub 32 from Scott County east to Tri, surface temps around 33-34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 This may be a bigger run, snow started 3-5 hours earlier over areas near the Ky and VA border than had been modeled on prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just had a rain shower pass, so what's showing on radar is making it to the ground precip wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 This is going to be a monster run, the LP rounded the corner over SE Georgia instead of off shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, John1122 said: This is going to be a monster run, the LP rounded the corner over SE Georgia instead of off shore. Going to be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Snowing heavily at 32 over most of the eastern half to 2/3rd of the forum area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 This thing is going to lay down 12+ over a large area pre-ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, John1122 said: This thing is going to lay down 12+ over a large area pre-ratio. Big jump sw into the central valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Didn't quite get into Central Tennessee like I thought it was going to, but Arkansas, West Tennessee, North Central Tennessee, Southern Kentucky and East Tennessee north of about Loudon County get a huge winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I don't know if I've ever seen the NAM laying down 14-20 inches in the area 15-35 hours before the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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