December 8-10 Storm Discussion

[John1122]

The RGEM got into the sauce that run. The low drifts Northwest for a few frames on it. Not sure why the Canadian suite over the last few days has tried to turn the system due north at times. This was even more extreme with the NW drift. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

I'd love to get a storm with model agreement and no temperature issues just once. It seems like it's always something crazy for our forum.  It never used to be this hard. Miller A's did what they do. Sliders worked well. Clippers meant 2-3 inches and a day off school. It's crazy how tough it is these days.

Tracking storms...I think it is kind of like once you know what goes into bologna, you just never look at bologna quite the same way again.  

[TellicoWx]

11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

LOL.  The 0z RGEM for NE TN and SW VA.   I think my power just flickered thinking about it.   

Lol, yeah RGEM says to buy some candles

[Blue Ridge]

That's the clown version of course. If you want a more honest snow total check pivotals snow depth map. It always tempers my expectations.

Oh of course, but it’s fun keeping track of what madness the clowns produce.

Realistically, my baseline for such low ratio storms is take the 10:1 clown and cut it in half, and stick to the low end!

[John1122]

Looking at it, the RGEM is just a weird very far south Miller B. It gets stuck and drifts around north, south, east and west as various times in Alabama and then transfers off the coast after 12 hours of drifting.

[Blue Ridge]

Lol, yeah RGEM says to buy some candles

RGEM wants to wipe out the I-81 corridor for a week or two.

[BlunderStorm]

Just now, Blue Ridge said:

 

RGEM wants to wipe out the I-81 corridor for a week or two.

 

Heh heh, only for the next potential storm next weekend to add insult to injury!

[BlunderStorm]

Anyway, the ICON looks really good for SWVA and TRI. It also comes with a nice surprise a little later for Middle Tennessee and the Plateau. I haven't seen the snow totals but it heavily resembles 18z. Next comes the GFS and CMC. EDIT on an added note the HRDPS (the high-res RGEM) is running as well though it only processes a map for SWVA, SEKY, and NETN.

[John1122]

The GFS is likely to continue it's progressive/low qpf output. I don't think it's going to blink.

[John1122]

Through 30 the GFS is 100+ miles east of the other models.

[BlunderStorm]

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The GFS is likely to continue it's progressive/low qpf output. I don't think it's going to blink.

and...you would be entirely right.

[John1122]

Virtually the same as the last several on the GFS. NETN/SWVA maybe get 1-2 inches ratio adjusted. I get freezing rain as well as most of the Kentucky border areas.

[Save the itchy algae!]

After all these years of tracking weather, I have really come to hate the GFS with this event.  If it ends up being right I don't know what I am going to do with myself.

[John1122]

The lower res globals are moving beyond their usefulness now. The Euro and possibly fv3 still have some use as they are high res long range models I believe. At least through 240. At 9k the Euro is higher res than the 12k NAM and the RGEM. 

[TellicoWx]

13 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Through 30 the GFS is 100+ miles east of the other models.

Think GFS is still in left field, but also didn't like seeing the NAM speed up either

[John1122]

1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

Think GFS is still in left field, but also didn't like seeing the NAM speed up either

The NAM has been speedy all day too. It just does a better job capturing the true size of gulf precip shields in these situations. The American models were singled out by the WPC for being too progressive in their disco earlier today. They used the Euro/Ukie/GFES to make their last forecast.

[tnweathernut]

Some modeling is still holding onto the idea there is a second impulse in the flow that increases precipitation after the main event.  MRX even talked about having to keep their eye on it in their afternoon discussion.  If you swing and miss the first pitch, maybe you will get another chance with the second (assuming it’s a real possibility and not just model hallucinations, lol).

[John1122]

2 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Some modeling is still holding onto the idea there is a second impulse in the flow that increases precipitation after the main event.  MRX even talked about having to keep their eye on it in their afternoon discussion.  If you swing and miss the first pitch, maybe you will get another chance with the second (assuming it’s a real possibility and not just model hallucinations, lol).

That happen in the February storm a couple of years ago. I remember NE Knox to Tri got about 3 additional inches the morning after the main event had moved out.

[BlunderStorm]

CMC (fwiw) this late in the game looks great and is improved from 12z.  This is probably the last time it will be worth a mention. The HRDPS lays down the hammer even harder than it did last time but gives Russell county the middle finger for no apparent reason other than *BlunderStorm wants it to snow here*. It is finally time for the FV3 and Euro to cap us off for the night. As a bonus check out the RAP model on pivotal or wherever you view it. Apparently at 3z it runs 39 hours instead of the usual 21 hours. It's lackluster up here but good for Tennessee leaving a surprise for west tenn.

[Carvers Gap]

Hearing the 0z FV3 basically held serve 1-2" water equivalent over TRI w its usual downsloping noted. 

[John1122]

Through 30 the FV3 is virtually identical to 18z.

[PowellVolz]

Through 30 the FV3 is virtually identical to 18z.

Cannot remember the last time a mod held its ground this long like the V3 has.


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[John1122]

Snow maps aren't out for it, but I figure they will be in the ball park of what they've been so far today. 

[AMZ8990]

6 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Snow maps aren't out for it, but I figure they will be in the ball park of what they've been so far today. 

A tad higher totals in certain areas but overall it held serve at 0Z.   

[PowellVolz]

Snow maps aren't out for it, but I figure they will be in the ball park of what they've been so far today. 

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[John1122]

10:1 FV3 is 10-12 inches from Central Arkansas to the Plateau in a SW to NE orientation. From the Eastern Plateau to Tri its 12 to 16 inches. South of 40, east of Davidson it's 2-5 inches with 6 inch pockets all the way through with totals beginning to climb towards 9 inches near the Smokies and over a foot in the mountains. Take 30-40 percent off these for ratio purposes.

[BlunderStorm]

When will NWS Morristown release an update? I'd think if the European held on to the 12z or improved on it that it would be enough to warrant a winter storm warning in effect for our region.

[John1122]

Just now, BlunderStorm said:

When will NWS Morristown release an update?

If I were guessing, around 4-5 am. Usually they take extra long in these situations, waiting probably in the 06z NAM and some other 06 models to begin working things out.

[Will (little rock)]

6 minutes ago, John1122 said:

10:1 FV3 is 10-12 inches from Central Arkansas to the Plateau in a SW to NE orientation. From the Eastern Plateau to Tri its 12 to 16 inches. South of 40, east of Davidson it's 2-5 inches with 6 inch pockets all the way through with totals beginning to climb towards 9 inches near the Smokies and over a foot in the mountains. Take 30-40 percent off these for ratio purposes.

Wow if that happened, that would really be amazing

[PowellVolz]

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