Daniel Boone Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 58 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: I noticed that for MBY on the 18z 3k NAM. It looked like a band developed at the tail end (almost like a squall line) and lifted north throughout northeast TN. The snow shows as red, the highest possible intensity. Pretty crazy! Heaviest hourly fall I've witnessed was about 6" on 2-14-1986. No doubt rates were higher at times within that hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Ratio'd the FV3 would be 5-10 inches N. Plateau and NE Tn. 3-5 inches along the entire 40 corridor except the little eastern rim area where I guess it warm noses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Long time lurker here. Love the site, and love the insight you all provide! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 18z FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Freezing Rain FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 18z FV3Surprised MRX isn’t giving this and the NAM more thought considering how steady they have been. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Noting that it was an outlier among it's ensembles with it's fast/flat solution, WPC didn't even use the GFS as part of their multi-model blend after the 12z runs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 How much further do you guys think the NW trend will go? I for one want to be as far away from the fringe as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 How much further do you guys think the NW trend will go? I for one want to be as far away from the fringe as possible.Will know much more after our vortex gets sampled imo. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 8, 2018 Author Share Posted December 8, 2018 FWIW the 18z RGEM (colder) is currently doing better with surface temps than the NAM. @BlunderStorm for my part I'm in wait and see how it all develops mode, but hope you get as much snow as possible! Agree with Powell. If RAOB network soundings are causing shifts one way or the other, the southern parts of the vort are in Mexico and as far as I can tell there are no soundings there: http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html I wonder if the mountains out that way are messing with vort. circulation and once it all comes out into the plains of TX it will reconsolidate any? Can't be much of an 850 low if the land is above 5000 feet. I have to say I'm happy with the solutions right now. Some heavy wet snow falling is a win for me. But can't help but wonder if a few more changes are in store on Hi-res mesoscale models once the whole shebang is in TX by 12 - 18z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Noting that it was an outlier among it's ensembles with it's fast/flat solution, WPC didn't even use the GFS as part of their multi-model blend after the 12z runs today.Assuming 0z model runs (FV3, NAM, EURO) hold serve or continue their trends, we’ll either see the GFS double down or shift drastically. Either way, I foresee major changes to the AM forecast package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 8, 2018 Author Share Posted December 8, 2018 Hi-Res RGEM (even more hi-res than the regular RGEM) (on TT as the HRDPS) snow-water equivalent. Oddly enough posted by a NE poster, but in the SE forum. Maybe more good news for you NE TN and SWVA folk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Man it was radio silence on the weather channel tonight west of the blue ridge. You'd think there'd be enough of us to at least warrant a mention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I like the nam out to 30, maybe 35-50 miles south of 18z, touch colder I think, similiar looking precip shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 13 minutes ago, Bango said: I like the nam out to 30, maybe 35-50 miles south of 18z, touch colder I think, similiar looking precip shield The precipitation shield looks to be 1 to 2 counties further north, the back edge of the storm looks a little less robust, temperatures seem to be 1 or 2 degrees colder, and the low itself is little quicker as well. EDIT: The precipitation does not seem to be expanded much more to the north as later in the run the 18z made up the difference compared to 0z. The next play of the drive is the NAM 3km version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 The NAM wasn't as epic as 18z but it was nice. I can't imagine it's more than a coincidence but for several days the models climb with totals through the day then start losing steam in the overnight runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 The NAM 3km starts off a little warmer than the 12km though after a quick bump of sleet/rain for an hour it transitions to all snow. EDIT: Warmer temperatures in the late morning begin to prevail and areas shift back to rain/ice/sleet. As the low begins to pivot NE, SWVA holds on to light to moderate snow for a few more hours after things calm down a little in NETN I'm not sure why the upper levels are such a mess after the low is to our SE. The event looks more limited in duration compared to the 12km for some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I’m still right on the edge. Guess that’s better that 100% out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 The NAM 3km starts off a little warmer than the 12km though after a quick bump of sleet/rain for an hour it transitions to all snow.3k I think Is going to be a good run for Knoxville north . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 3k I think Is going to be a good run for Knoxville north .Nope I was wrong. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 HRRR shows snow in northwest tn/ark by 12z tomorrow with slight pockets of snow popping up in southeast TN around the same time. Temp profiles are coming in cooler through 12z as well. Hr13 shows sleet starting to fall in the northern edges of my county as well as a heavy band of snow moving into middle tn( both central and northern portions of middle tn) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I've got the storm (famous last words) and now I'm hoping for the storm to do as hard of a pivot as possible on modeling. If your in southern Tennessee the 3km this time around was a little bit of a letdown but not too bad. I'm calling for 4-7 in Honaker but I would sway away from prediction outside of my town with my limited knowledge. I hope 0z at least continues the status quo. For the past 2 days in a row 0z has been a pain and 12z has been a blessing. Let's hope we break that trend tonight. NEXT UP: RGEM and ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 The 3k NAM is back to the Euro from the other day above 3000 in Campbell County. It spit out 34 inches of snow over Cross Mountain. Even ratio'd it's 28 inches. Ratio'd it's 2-4+ on the western Plateau. 3-7 in the lower elevations of Campbell/Claiborne with yardsticks needed above 2500 feet and climbing into the 7-9 range towards the TRI area. Knox ratio'd to 1.5 in SW Knox and 3 to 4 in far north and northeast Knox. There is an odd cranny just west of Johnson County in NE Tn that it only shows 1 inch. Not sure if it's downsloping or what. Sometimes the 3k almost seems to try to hard with terrain features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 HRRR temps start to waffle back and forth from HR13 to hr17. Central Arkansas may be in for a nice surprise tomorrow though, Dyersburg as well. If I’m in east TN, I would like the Nightime arrival of most of my precipitation. Definitely gonna help you guys out with totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 The RGEM is once again a heavy wet mess with the most confusing precipitation map you can conceive of. This is the run that if your positioned well is epic but knocks down your trees and leaves you without power for a week. The low looks further north on it and less consolidated. If your in southern Tennessee you don't want this solution. As for me on this run I get stuck with some overlying warm air over the clinch river valley and get "iced over real gud." Models aren't perfect so I doubt this would exclusively apply to me so it looks pretty fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 The system sped up a little on the NAM so the moisture return and lift are exiting quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 LOL. The 0z RGEM for NE TN and SW VA. I think my power just flickered thinking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 12km NAM gives a foot plus to Unicoi, Carter, Washington, Sullivan, Johnson, and Hancock, as well as the favored mountain slopes of Greene County and into the Smokies. Also drops what appears to be 30” or greater on Brevard, NC. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I'd love to get a storm with model agreement and no temperature issues just once. It seems like it's always something crazy for our forum. It never used to be this hard. Miller A's did what they do. Sliders worked well. Clippers meant 2-3 inches and a day off school. It's crazy how tough it is these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 8 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said: 12km NAM gives a foot plus to Unicoi, Carter, Washington, Sullivan, Johnson, and Hancock, as well as the favored mountain slopes of Greene County and into the Smokies. Also drops what appears to be 30” or greater on Brevard, NC. . That's the clown version of course. If you want a more honest snow total check pivotals snow depth map. It always tempers my expectations. However, I believe it was a day or two ago I overheard on the SE forum a meteorologist talking about temperatures at 850mb and 700mb and how modeling will often depict a heavy snow as sleet if a layer in the atmosphere is 33. When in all actuality the snow survives the conditions and continues to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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