Carvers Gap Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, ShawnEastTN said: That famous north and west jog used to always be prevalent in the last 24 to 48 hour window of modeling. And let me say, we have gotten screwed by that trend so many times. LOL. It would be nice just once for it to put us back in the game. Well, maybe we aren't out of it...but we are down a couple of runs in the bottom of the ninth, nobody on base, two outs, and have already shanked a couple into the bleachers during this at bat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 24 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: Well it's going to take a miracle. I'll be looking for any last minute jogs north on the modeling for the next 18 hours. When there is less than 24 hours until the event I'll shift to watching the radar and the occasional HRRR model run. Folks at my school are confused with some people mumbling about 2 feet of snow and others mumbling of none and everything in between haha! I'm with you buddy. Total slap in the face for us ! Wouldn't have been so bad had we lost it on the modeling just a couple days ago but...this close. Sure will squelch any excitement for anything shown thru the Winter until a day or so b4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownNDirtyTN Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I live in Limestone between Greeneville and Johnson City. My dad has been telling me all week it ain't going to snow and I've been talking with him about the model runs. Well this morning I told him it may not snow and now he's saying all the local news stations are saying big snow. I give up........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I have a feeling modeling is trying to tell us in northeast TN and SW VA to .................. R-E-L-A-X. I hope we see the all to common NW bump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 12z NAM seems off on its northern precip starting around HR54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 GFS running now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 25 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 12z RGEM says “suppression? What suppression?” warm nose partly into SW VA based on snow maps. Oh it brings back the precipitation but not in a good way. That some devastating ice for Russell at the last hour. With that said it spits sleet over my roof instead of freezing rain so SOLD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 12Z GFS out to 54 looks about like a carbon copy of 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 It still ain't pretty but is that a slight NW jog I see on the 12z GFS? I'm playing in the 4th quarter of the state championship football game 20 points down with 7 minutes on the clock about to give an onside kick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 NWS Memphis is saying The pacific storm system traveling across the southeast has a trended further south from the latest models runs. Something to keep an eye on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 The 12z GFS come back slightly to the northwest. We needed to see the southward jog stop. Accums are light over NE TN at 12z, but at 6z there was nothing. So, pretty pleased to see that. How many times have we seen models suites jog south only to come back north? Not trying to give false hope or wish cast, it is just crazy how many times this happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: It still ain't pretty but is that a slight NW jog I see on the 12z GFS? I'm playing in the 4th quarter of the state championship football game 20 points down with 7 minutes on the clock about to give an onside kick! Onside kick recovered. And trends can still make a difference. We are till barely far enough from this event, that we could still get something from it...maybe not gaudy numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Starting at 54 on the NAM (850s go below 0 for a large part of E TN) and rolling forward in time, the system is backbuilding over the region. This can be seen at the 700 RH level, the UVVs should depict precip falling, but the NAM sim radar has little to nothing. The PWAT isn't great, but at the same time enough that something should be depicted. From 54 thru 66 the 700 RH and UVVs actually get better across the area as time goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12z GFS come back slightly to the northwest. We needed to see the southward jog stop. Accums are light over NE TN at 12z, but at 6z there was nothing. So, pretty pleased to see that. How many times have we seen models suites jog south only to come back north? Not trying to give false hope or wish cast, it is just crazy how many times this happens. I had the same thought as you and @tnweathernut re: the ever-present NW jog after awaking to dismal overnight model runs. Now, undoubtedly I risk setting myself up for immense disappointment, but I would rather be on the northern fringe within 48 hrs than in the bullseye. At the moment, I feel good about MRX's forecast and think it may well play out in similar manner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said: I had the same thought as you and @tnweathernut re: the ever-present NW jog after awaking to dismal overnight model runs. Now, undoubtedly I risk setting myself up for immense disappointment, but I would rather be on the northern fringe within 48 hrs than in the bullseye. At the moment, I feel good about MRX's forecast and think it may well play out in similar manner. We have been following this threat for almost 10 days, and the period (as a period to watch) several days longer than that. We are probably too invested at this point to just give up.. If we end up disappointed, so be it. We've certainly had a lot of practice in that category.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 14 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: We have been following this threat for almost 10 days, and the period (as a period to watch) several days longer than that. We are probably too invested at this point to just give up.. If we end up disappointed, so be it. We've certainly had a lot of practice in that category.....lol 20 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said: I had the same thought as you and @tnweathernut re: the ever-present NW jog after awaking to dismal overnight model runs. Now, undoubtedly I risk setting myself up for immense disappointment, but I would rather be on the northern fringe within 48 hrs than in the bullseye. At the moment, I feel good about MRX's forecast and think it may well play out in similar manner. I'm already disappointed. I have little to no digital snow to lose so hey...It can only go up from here. Last night I was boiling red and now I have an honest smile on my face. You guys go check out the canadian. (fwiw not expecting even 1/4th of that) EDIT: Oh what do you know the ICON trended NW and is colder! That's the last model I expected to cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Well, if you really think about this, the regular GFS (yes, the always suppressed and clueless model) is about the ONLY 12z model with such light amounts and we have generally seen an uptick from 0 and 6z. The FV3 is pretty juicy and has 1" qpf amounts in all of northeast TN and parts of SW VA and has 2" qpf amounts around and southwest of Knoxville. If the Euro jumps back northwest a bit I will feel MUCH better, but as for now I generally feel encouraged after the hangover known as 0z and 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 We have been following this threat for almost 10 days, and the period (as a period to watch) several days longer than that. We are probably too invested at this point to just give up.. If we end up disappointed, so be it. We've certainly had a lot of practice in that category.....lolIndeed we have! This reminds me of a system from a few winter seasons ago, maybe 2014 or 2015? I tried to dig but Tapatalk is garbage for viewing post history. Anyway, East TN was well positioned for a solid 4-8” snow, until 48-72 hrs when the suppression trend reared its ugly head. Around this time, they slowly crept back to the NW w/ the precip shield, until short term modeling took over and brought it home. I want to say it was a solid 3-6” snow for much of the eastern Valley and mountains. Moral of the story: there is hope, friends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said: Indeed we have! This reminds me of a system from a few winter seasons ago, maybe 2014 or 2015? I tried to dig but Tapatalk is garbage for viewing post history. Anyway, East TN was well positioned for a solid 4-8” snow, until 48-72 hrs when the suppression trend reared its ugly head. Around this time, they slowly crept back to the NW w/ the precip shield, until short term modeling took over and brought it home. I want to say it was a solid 3-6” snow for much of the eastern Valley and mountains. Moral of the story: there is hope, friends! As Holston River Rambler said at the very beginning of this thread... "Fate often spares an undoomed man, if his courage is good." --Beowulf, Book VIII, lines 572-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Comparing the NAM vs the HiRes 3k, you can see how the northern shield is off for you folks in NE TN. Both have close to the same PWAT, with UVVs running -10 to -30 (indicates heavier precip potential) up into SE KY counties along the border. Even tho they are very similar, the NAM has alot less precip and shield. Would think the HiRes shield and rates are closer to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hilton01 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 15 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: As Holston River Rambler said at the very beginning of this thread... "Fate often spares an undoomed man, if his courage is good." --Beowulf, Book VIII, lines 572-3. Also been said "those who have been screwed before are often screwed again." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 14 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said: Indeed we have! This reminds me of a system from a few winter seasons ago, maybe 2014 or 2015? I tried to dig but Tapatalk is garbage for viewing post history. Anyway, East TN was well positioned for a solid 4-8” snow, until 48-72 hrs when the suppression trend reared its ugly head. Around this time, they slowly crept back to the NW w/ the precip shield, until short term modeling took over and brought it home. I want to say it was a solid 3-6” snow for much of the eastern Valley and mountains. Moral of the story: there is hope, friends! I believe that was 2015, it was a huge bust for West Tennessee too. They were saying we could have blizzard conditions the day before the storms arrival only to get nothing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Indeed we have! This reminds me of a system from a few winter seasons ago, maybe 2014 or 2015? I tried to dig but Tapatalk is garbage for viewing post history. Anyway, East TN was well positioned for a solid 4-8” snow, until 48-72 hrs when the suppression trend reared its ugly head. Around this time, they slowly crept back to the NW w/ the precip shield, until short term modeling took over and brought it home. I want to say it was a solid 3-6” snow for much of the eastern Valley and mountains. Moral of the story: there is hope, friends!I also remember in 14’ or 15’ a similar downsloping storm with boarder line temps. The forecast for most of E Tennessee valley was snow to rain to snow. I was only expecting an inch or so. Well the WAA stayed within 20-30 miles of the foothills and the northern plateau created a CAD in the valley north of Knoxville. I never changed to rain and ended up with 6-8 inches. Anyone remember this?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Sometimes I ask myself why I even bother trying to figure the GFS out lol. Only model so far this cycle that just obliterates the 850s....just...just go away gfs. * and how do you upgrade a turd...doesnt that make it a super turd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Sometimes I ask myself why I even bother trying to figure the GFS out lol. Only model so far this cycle that just obliterates the 850s....just...just go away gfs. * and how do you upgrade a turd...doesnt that make it a super turd It will likely just mean we can get NAM'd at longer leads. lol The snow maps for the FV3 are pretty. Would be nice if we all found out they were legit, but i'm not sure any met is buying into them. Overall though, I will say the FV3 has been MUCH more steady and hasn't jumped around like the current GFS. Baby steps.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I also remember in 14’ or 15’ a similar downsloping storm with boarder line temps. The forecast for most of E Tennessee valley was snow to rain to snow. I was only expecting an inch or so. Well the WAA stayed within 20-30 miles of the foothills and the northern plateau created a CAD in the valley north of Knoxville. I never changed to rain and ended up with 6-8 inches. Anyone remember this?.I remember that, but now they’re all meshing together in my head. I’m going to have to spend some time this weekend bookmarking and organizing old storm/obs threads for easier reference. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: It will likely just mean we can get NAM'd at longer leads. lol The snow maps for the FV3 are pretty. Would be nice if we all found out they were legit, but i'm not sure any met is buying into them. Overall though, I will say the FV3 has been MUCH more steady and hasn't jumped around like the current GFS. Baby steps.............. Think they just renamed the DGEX and hoped nobody would notice lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 UKMET at 12z continued the trend of more precip north and west. Still a SHARP cutoff, but northeast TN would likely do very well with this depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 19 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: It will likely just mean we can get NAM'd at longer leads. lol The snow maps for the FV3 are pretty. Would be nice if we all found out they were legit, but i'm not sure any met is buying into them. Overall though, I will say the FV3 has been MUCH more steady and hasn't jumped around like the current GFS. Baby steps.............. I agree, it’s been pretty locked in for a few days. I’ll take baby steps at this point, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 We really need the Stovepipe's "Dr No" snowman image about right now or the truck w the "Euro is Rolling" meme. Euro on deck... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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