BlunderStorm Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 10 minutes ago, John1122 said: They rarely mention us unless it's supposed to snow here and no where else. They also seem to divide the area often by saying the north or the south part of their area. But they seem to refer to Tri as their north. I'm further north than Tri but they don't seem to mean this area when they say north. I hate that MRX does that. Is there anyway you could send them a message regarding the lack of acknowledgement on the northern plateau? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Blue Ridge said: Was just about to mention this. There is a sweet spot for this 850 low, and for East TN to cash in it often involves WNC taking it on the chin WRT the warm nose. This happened during one of our events in 2014 or 2015. They were predicted to get epic totals in the upstate of South Carolina into Charlotte. Instead it ended up being a sleet fest and East Tn did much better than initially predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: I hate that MRX does that. Is there anyway you could send them a message regarding the lack of acknowledgement on the northern plateau? I honestly never felt like bothering with it. I usually read the Jackson Ky AFD disco, they will almost always mentioned their areas that border me and I get very close to the same weather as they do. They also smoke MRX when it comes to properly issuing advisory/warning products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 21 minutes ago, 1234snow said: 18z NAM clown for hour 84. Pretty solid I must say. Haven’t had time to look at specifics. Insert: Sanford and Son...It's the big one! gif. I realize that many of the extreme solutions won't verify, especially the NAM. However, this week beats the last two winters combined in term of a decent storm to track and discuss for our backyards. Been a lean past couple of years up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just glanced at GSP's disco and updated maps. AVL peeps are on weeniecide watch. Total accumulation was cut by ~60% between the AM and PM forecast packages across WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 WPC mentions the Euro closing the system over Texas, but the GFS closes it over Tennessee and Kentucky. They keep mentioning that the GFS is very progressive and that it's a bias of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said: Just glanced at GSP's disco and updated maps. AVL peeps are on weeniecide watch. Total accumulation was cut by ~60% between the AM and PM forecast packages across WNC. Ouch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 JKL came out and said 4-8 in their Southeast counties look likely, 2-4 in their SW areas, and 2 in their northern areas. Said if the NAM was right, much more on tap. They mentioned that ratios might be as low as 5:1 with the snow. So shaving 50 percent off some of the snow maps might be prudent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 GFS is almost a mirror of it's 12z run. Gets everything out in a hurry and cut back it's totals in areas that got snow by 15-25 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Ugly is about the only way to describe this snow depth map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Interesting "battle" shaping up between the models over NE TN. JMA/ICON/GFS vs CMC/UKMET/Euro. FV3 is like Switzerland. Since it is a beta model at the moment, I will allow it to have neutrality. NAM is a lean for the good guys. Just isn't time for it to come off the bench. I can't see the temp profile on the JMA, but I assume it is warm based on its slp position over Alabama. \ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncheelfan Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 I like our odds!!Sent from my SM-G930U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Friendship ended w/ GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 The NAM map from tropical is basically all ice in NW Tennessee. It'd be a horrible ice storm there if it verified. No small amount in NE Tennessee either on it. It ratios out much differently than TT map. Ice free snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Blue Ridge said: Friendship ended w/ GFS. It was a match doomed to fail anyway. Just never knew where you stood until it was too late. You are better off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, John1122 said: The NAM map from tropical is basically all ice in NW Tennessee. It'd be a horrible ice storm there if it verified. No small amount in NE Tennessee either on it. It ratios out much differently than TT map. Ice free snow map. So basically it is have a nice snowstorm or lose power indefinitely in Johnson City? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, Carvers Gap said: So basically it is have a nice snowstorm or lose power indefinitely in Johnson City? With 5:1 snow ratios it's probably choose which way you lose your power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 I sense folks in NE TN going to their favorite wet bulb calculator very soon. Seriously though, if this comes in at night...this could be a mess up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I sense folks in NE TN going to their favorite wet bulb calculator very soon. Seriously though, if this comes in at night...this could be a mess up here. It’s definitely coming in over night. Between midnight and 7am from the looks of it ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 I sense folks in NE TN going to their favorite wet bulb calculator very soon. Seriously though, if this comes in at night...this could be a mess up here.RIP 321 corridor. Seems like if I fart in the wrong direction, I lose power in my neighborhood. Not sure I want .30” of freezing rain and a few inches of cement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 FV3 not looking too bad at hour 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 FV3 not looking too bad at hour 66I’ll probably be in bed by the time this gets finished . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyHamachek Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 33 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: It’s definitely coming in over night. Between midnight and 7am from the looks of it ...... Which night is it coming in ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyHamachek Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Is pigeon forge still good and back towards knocksville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, AndyHamachek said: Is pigeon forge still good and back towards knocksville It's just according to which model you can trust. Right now the NWS says those areas will be trouble free, but if you go to Gatlinburg Saturday night or Sunday, maybe or maybe not. As bad as that sounds, this thing is on a razor thin margin between a snow or ice storm or a rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 I feel like the models are locked into their solutions and are either going to score or be wrong. Not sure if they are going to flinch at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, John1122 said: I feel like the models are locked into their solutions and are either going to score or be wrong. Not sure if they are going to flinch at this point. I agree, it’s awfully suspicious how solid each model has been with its solutions. Each one is poking its chest out to see who’s top dog it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 13 minutes ago, John1122 said: It's just according to which model you can trust. Right now the NWS says those areas will be trouble free, but if you go to Gatlinburg Saturday night or Sunday, maybe or maybe not. As bad as that sounds, this thing is on a razor thin margin between a snow or ice storm or a rainer. Ober might be fun this weekend. Cades cove outta be pretty sweet too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 22 minutes ago, AndyHamachek said: Which night is it coming in ??? Saturday night/Sunday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Is the FV3 skipping panels for y'all as well? It sure looks great to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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