Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 Found this topography map of east TN with some...unique...coloring that really helps identify that zone around Morristown where the elevation kicks up. Really seems to coincide with what some of the models are showing as the transition zone. Am interested to see how the actual rain/snow line verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: I am never falling for any SREF love again. Been burned too many times. I am sure it's useful for something (other than getting hopes up), but refuse to use it as a tool in my toolbox. lol Yep I only look at it once at 24 hours out for sure thing type of events to watch their amount trends, but only around the 24 hour mark for a storm that is an all but guarantee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 NAM coming in slightly weaker SLP by a mb, and slightly further south than last run at 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 I do like this particular SREF product though (this is not the plumes): https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=2018120615&id=SREF_500MB-HGHT_VORT__ You can kind of use it like a NAM ensemble for a different variables. You can usually tell where the NAM will come in based on the trends on that. That's basically what I use it for. The plumes are fun and I will probably never stop looking at them, but I have gotten sucked in before. Good news is they are not so nice for Knox right now, so they can only go up?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncheelfan Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just got issued a winter storm watch for northeast Tennessee!!! Sent from my SM-G930U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 MRX issues Winter Storm Watches for NE TN, SW VA, and Smokies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, uncheelfan said: Just got issued a winter storm watch for northeast Tennessee!!! Sent from my SM-G930U using Tapatalk Wow, that was not what I expected to happen. Quote ...A STRONG EARLY SEASON SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... Widespread precipitation will move into the area late Saturday as a strong upper level system sweeps into the area. Temperatures will be cold enough across northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia for precipitation to begin as a mixture of rain/snow or possibly all snow. The best lift and moisture will arrive on Sunday with rather significant accumulations possible ranging from 4 to as high as 12 inches in a few isolated spots. Snow will begin to taper off on Monday. TNZ017-018-041-043>047-074-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-071000- /O.NEW.KMRX.WS.A.0002.181209T0000Z-181210T1700Z/ Sullivan-Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene- Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter- Sevier Smoky Mountains-Lee-Wise-Scott-Russell-Washington- Including the cities of Kingsport, Bristol, Mountain City, Cosby, Cedar Creek, Johnson City, Erwin, Elizabethton, Roan Mountain, Gatlinburg, Jonesville, Wise, Norton, Gate City, Lebanon, and Abingdon 324 PM EST Thu Dec 6 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 12 inches possible. * WHERE...Portions of East Tennessee and Southwest Virginia. * WHEN...From Saturday evening through Monday morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncheelfan Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Me neither especially this early!!! Hoping that's it's not a "you know what"! Very very interesting that the models have been showing this much accumulation for this amount of time!Sent from my SM-G930U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 The MRX WSW is pretty much what I predicted they'd do yesterday. So far very much like December 18th 2009. I had 6 inches of snow on the ground when they got around to issuing a winter storm warning for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 21 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Found this topography map of east TN with some...unique...coloring that really helps identify that zone around Morristown where the elevation kicks up. Really seems to coincide with what some of the models are showing as the transition zone. Am interested to see how the actual rain/snow line verifies. That is cool! You have a link to that for the rest of the state? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Accompanying MRX PM disco: .SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Friday)... The short-term forecast is rather benign compared to the long- term forecast. Temperatures have struggled today as high clouds moved in ahead of the next approaching upper level system. This system is currently located to the northwest across the Great Lakes but will race into the Northeast U.S. by late tonight. A cold front associated with this upper trough will slide into the area tonight. Moisture along this boundary will be limited with only a slight chance for a few snow showers late tonight into early Friday morning across portions of southwest Virginia and portions of the northern Cumberland Plateau. No snow accumulations are forecast tonight. Lows overnight will range from the upper 20s to mid 30s. On Friday cyclogenesis will take place along the natural baroclinic zone of the northwestern Gulf Coast as an upper level trough moves across the Baja California. Concurrently, an E-W surface boundary will stretch across the northern Gulf Coast. Isentropic ascent to the north of the boundary will keep conditions cloudy throughout the day but do not expect precipitation will move in until after 00z Saturday. Another cool day is forecast with highs in the low to mid 40s for most locations. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)... Isentropic ascent will continue Friday night into Saturday with the atmospheric gradually moistening and light precipitation in the form of light rain overspreading the southern sections of the Forecast area. Clouds will thicken across the northeast section with light northeast winds bringing in cold air from high pressure centered over the the Ohio Valley and eastern states. An upper low moves east along the Gulf Coast with a surface low developing and moving to the southeast coast and then northeastward as cold airmass from strong high pressure over the east keeps cold air in place. The precipitation will increase Saturday and Saturday night from southwest to northeast. The precipitation will be mostly rain Saturday and Saturday evening then transition to snow in the higher elevations and across the northeast where more cold air is trapped. Expect moderate to heavy snow across southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee late Saturday night and Sunday decreasing late Sunday night as the main system pulls out to the northeast. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for these areas. The lower elevations in the central and southern sections will have enough warming Saturday through Sunday with only light to little snowfall accumulations. Monday and Monday night the precipitation will gradually decrease with only light accumulations Monday afternoon and night. High pressure settles in Tuesday and Wednesday with another system to move in Thursday with warm enough temperatures for mostly rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 From the map posted, this is the snowline very very often for my area. Also illustrates why WAA that runs up the valley doesn't work as well here even though the very center of Campbell has a narrow valley. It's surrounded by ridges/peaks and doesn't really connect with the great valley of East Tn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, Coach B said: That is cool! You have a link to that for the rest of the state? Just search up colored elevation relief maps of tennessee and you should find it. There is one of every state however the colors for altitude vary with each state. If I posted one of Virginia relative to the the Tennessee one I would look like I was at the same elevation as Kingsport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 John, I would like to see the Dec 18-19, 2009 storm totals overlaid on that map. I think that tells quite the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, Coach B said: hat is cool! You have a link to that for the rest of the state? Here you go: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said: Accompanying MRX PM disco: .SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Friday)... The short-term forecast is rather benign compared to the long- term forecast. Temperatures have struggled today as high clouds moved in ahead of the next approaching upper level system. This system is currently located to the northwest across the Great Lakes but will race into the Northeast U.S. by late tonight. A cold front associated with this upper trough will slide into the area tonight. Moisture along this boundary will be limited with only a slight chance for a few snow showers late tonight into early Friday morning across portions of southwest Virginia and portions of the northern Cumberland Plateau. No snow accumulations are forecast tonight. Lows overnight will range from the upper 20s to mid 30s. On Friday cyclogenesis will take place along the natural baroclinic zone of the northwestern Gulf Coast as an upper level trough moves across the Baja California. Concurrently, an E-W surface boundary will stretch across the northern Gulf Coast. Isentropic ascent to the north of the boundary will keep conditions cloudy throughout the day but do not expect precipitation will move in until after 00z Saturday. Another cool day is forecast with highs in the low to mid 40s for most locations. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)... Isentropic ascent will continue Friday night into Saturday with the atmospheric gradually moistening and light precipitation in the form of light rain overspreading the southern sections of the Forecast area. Clouds will thicken across the northeast section with light northeast winds bringing in cold air from high pressure centered over the the Ohio Valley and eastern states. An upper low moves east along the Gulf Coast with a surface low developing and moving to the southeast coast and then northeastward as cold airmass from strong high pressure over the east keeps cold air in place. The precipitation will increase Saturday and Saturday night from southwest to northeast. The precipitation will be mostly rain Saturday and Saturday evening then transition to snow in the higher elevations and across the northeast where more cold air is trapped. Expect moderate to heavy snow across southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee late Saturday night and Sunday decreasing late Sunday night as the main system pulls out to the northeast. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for these areas. The lower elevations in the central and southern sections will have enough warming Saturday through Sunday with only light to little snowfall accumulations. Monday and Monday night the precipitation will gradually decrease with only light accumulations Monday afternoon and night. High pressure settles in Tuesday and Wednesday with another system to move in Thursday with warm enough temperatures for mostly rainfall. I always feel like MRX ignores its Northern Plateau counties unless it absolutely has to mention them. That's several discos in a row where we aren't mentioned at all regarding the weekend even though around 115,000 people live here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Here you go:Geez that’s beautiful . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, John1122 said: I always feel like MRX ignores its Northern Plateau counties unless it absolutely has to mention them. That's several discos in a row where we aren't mentioned at all even though around 115,000 people live here. I was getting ready to come on here and mention this. I thought it was strange that the northern plateau isnt getting any discussion. It's hard to tell if they are grouping the Plateau with the lower elevations or the higher elevations group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 18z NAM clown for hour 84. Pretty solid I must say. Haven’t had time to look at specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 I think MRX just feels most confident about NE TN and SW VA and are waiting for another run or two before issuing further WSWs or WWAs. I bet overnight or in the morning we'll see more products issued for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Geez that’s beautiful . It really is. This is the neatest thing Ive seen all week. Oh, and Nashville really is down in a hole. UHI and elevation really screw things up for them. OHX has more elevation to consider than we often think about. Lots of areas in southern middle TN over 1000 feet that doesn't seem to be mentioned either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 18z NAM clown for hour 84. Pretty solid I must say. Haven’t had time to look at specifics. It took me from 1” to 8 inches. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Runman292 said: I was getting ready to come on here and mention this. I thought it was strange that the northern plateau isnt getting any discussion. It's hard to tell if they are grouping the Plateau with the lower elevations or the higher elevations group. They rarely mention us unless it's supposed to snow here and no where else. They also seem to divide the area often by saying the north or the south part of their area. But they seem to refer to Tri as their north. I'm further north than Tri but they don't seem to mean this area when they say north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: I think MRX just feels most confident about NE TN and SW VA and are waiting for another run or two before issuing further WSWs or WWAs. I bet overnight or in the morning we'll see more products issued for the area. Honestly, by looking at their forecast they basically saw the 12z GFS and based the forecast mainly on it and the 12z NAM. I'll also add that this is a frequent problem for this part of their forecast area. Very often get wwa/warning criteria winter weather events that either end up with no products issued or a WWA. It happened this week already. The northern half of Campbell got 1.5-3 inches of snow. Bordering counties of SEKY were issued WWA. SWVA/Smokies were issued WWA. We were generally ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownNDirtyTN Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 I was looking at the Southeast forums and Greenville/Spartanburg threw up like 2 inches of snow for Asheville and discounting any heavier snows except for more towards the midstate of NC. Pretty strange... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, DownNDirtyTN said: I was looking at the Southeast forums and Greenville/Spartanburg threw up like 2 inches of snow for Asheville and discounting any heavier snows except for more towards the midstate of NC. Pretty strange... Was reading their discussion and they are expecting a lot of sleet to cut into snow totals now there. It was a dramatic change by GSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 Apologies for that last post. I thought the RGEM was out to 18 hours, but I must have misread it, that was the analysis data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 As much as I would hate it for the NC and SC people, I would also love for the warm nose to be more aimed to that side of the Apps. If the 850 low can round the base of the Apps, I'm all for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, John1122 said: Honestly, by looking at their forecast they basically saw the 12z GFS and based the forecast mainly on it and the 12z NAM. That is true. I know the feeling I stay colder in WAA situations for much longer and that is missed all the time. The areas around Roane, Rhea and Meigs for some reason seem to get trapped cold and get ice much longer than most in WAA. Always annoyed me they would not notice this happening over and over year after year. The southern plateau I believe creates a sort of shadow for the areas right along the plateau in the valley where WAA rides east of us and takes longer to filter in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 As much as I would hate it for the NC and SC people, I would also love for the warm nose to be more aimed to that side of the Apps. If the 850 low can round the base of the Apps, I'm all for it. Was just about to mention this. There is a sweet spot for this 850 low, and for East TN to cash in it often involves WNC taking it on the chin WRT the warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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