December 8-10 Storm Discussion

[Bango]

7 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said:

 

I’ll conveniently ignore the CMC cold bias and cash out now, please and thank you.

 

I will blend the cmc and icon to arrive right back at the same 50/50 proposition i started with lol.  It seems the cmc has been playing catch up all storm, and with that northern track,  on an island. 

[Reb]

6 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said:

 

I’ll conveniently ignore the CMC cold bias and cash out now, please and thank you.

 

It’s been consistently warm for this particular storm

[BlunderStorm]

If your up at this point you might as well stay for the euro and hopefully the full release of the FV3.

[John1122]

The FV3 is finally rolling, it's an extension to some extent, of what the NAM would be if it had kept rolling. Through 96 hours, everywhere North of 40 is in excess of 6 inches and some areas south of 40 are there.

[John1122]

Through 120 the features are similar to 18z. Lots of skips in the frames that actually made it to the table but the end result is similar. We do continue to be on the very edge of epic snow or epic rain.  At this point for our forum, the best bets are Southern Kentucky to SWVA and the mountains. These areas aren't can't miss, but at this point it looks like it'd be very hard for them to miss. Every single model has those areas doing well. They are almost as steady as Western NC in that regard. After that it's the usual suspects north of 40. NW Tn, the Plateau and non-mountain Northern Valley. After that the chances begin to diminish.  Northern Alabama/Southern Middle Tennessee appear to be mostly out on every model. The warm nose is just too much for them. Even the very cold NAM doesn't get it done in those areas. 

If these runs continue for 24 hours I suspect MRX will bring out winter storm watches for SWVA and the Eastern Mountains but will hold off and issue an SPS for the rest of their cwa. JKL will drop them for their CWA and Mem will probably put them up for Northwest Arkansas and NW Tennessee.

[BlunderStorm]

Right now I'm hoping for some really low high temps over the next 3 afternoons leading up to the event. There is no better surface for snow to land on than snow itself and if I end up at the tip of the warm nose dealing with a mix I'm gonna need something frozen on the ground to make it stick. That's wishful thinking though... I'm sure 90% of it will have either melted or sublimated away by that point. The good news is even if the snow does melt it's going to leave the ground very cold allowing for accumulation to start up easier.

[John1122]

Not seen great access on the Euro yet, but looks like Eastern areas get buried, middle valley gets little or nothing, and western areas get something. Will hopefully get better map access shortly.

[Bango]

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Not seen great access on the Euro yet, but looks like Eastern areas get buried, middle valley gets little or nothing, and western areas get something. Will hopefully get better map access shortly.

Also, the gradient running north is much sharper, especially into swva wherein totals are significantly reduced.  There seems less and less turn up the coast and more sliding ots.  

[EastKnox]

Not seen great access on the Euro yet, but looks like Eastern areas get buried, middle valley gets little or nothing, and western areas get something. Will hopefully get better map access shortly.

Hth

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[John1122]

Just now, EastKnox said:

Hth

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Thanks EastKnox, I think there's probably 2-4 at least in West Tn as well but not 100 percent sure. Also think it may still be snowing at 114.

[EastKnox]

Thanks EastKnox, I think there's probably 2-4 at least in West Tn as well but not 100 percent sure. Also think it may still be snowing at 114.

It was pretty much done at 114. I'll check again though.

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[EastKnox]

Wider look through 162.

 

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[John1122]

Well that is honestly not a bad look for some of us but not a good trend either. It's probably the worst Tennessee and Kentucky has looked on the Euro in a while and even NC didn't go as insane as it had been. I'd take that add day imby  but it's still far enough out that this thing could slip completely away. If it does, I will probably give up storm tracking unless it's within 36 hours. The backend not pivoting up the coast takes away the long duration event. You can bet if that backside energy wasn't potentially able to interact and drag moisture back to our area that thing would turn the corner and bury the Mid Atlantic and NE.

[BlunderStorm]

What has caused it's southern jog and lowered duration? I'm not surprised by the limited snow but if it keeps this up by tomorrow I'm going to be staring at a near miss... (In other words I'm not upset about where we are now in regards to the ECMWF but rather where I think this is going.) This looks like a warning shot. If this slipped away it would leave me so jaded I wouldn't trust anything less than 3 days out. Well goodnight I expect to wake up to cliff diving material and hope to wake up to status quo on the 06z runs.

[John1122]

UKIE snow map. Right now it' the UKIE/FV3/NAM/CMC vs the Euro/GFS for areas west of the Plateau.

 

 

[Reb]

3 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

What has caused it's southern jog and lowered duration? I'm not surprised by the limited snow but if it keeps this up by tomorrow I'm going to be staring at a near miss... This looks like a warning shot. If this slips away it would leave me so jaded I wouldn't trust anything less than 3 days out.

I never trust a thing in the ETN Central Valley, other than warm nose lol

[John1122]

The ULL was weaker and further south on the Euro, it was actually warmer than the GFS. So no backside enhanced snowfall for the most part. There is some lighter mixed stuff that drops across Southern Middle TN but not much otherwise.

[John1122]

The RPM at the end of it's run.

[John1122]

The EPS. The mean is down, especially for Kentucky. Someone mentioned that the last few cycles the 00z has lightened up, then the 12z comes back bigger. We will see if that continues or if this is the beginning of a decline.

[John1122]

06z Nam out to 54. H is over Illinois and West Virginia looks like a 1038 on both location. Low is 1 mb stronger in about the same spot. Illinois high center is a little further S and W vs 0z.

[John1122]

At 60, the HP in Illinois is again a little further south. Precip shield and lp position are about the same as 0z. There's a huge difference in dew points. Feel like it may be more rain vs the southern edge show it showed earlier. My dp was 19 at 0z and it's 29 at the same hour this run.

[John1122]

Through 69 Arkansas is getting pounded. There's been some rain/snow mix in NW Tennessee. The large area of frozen slop that was near Memphis on the 0z is all rain this run. High is 1040 over Wisconsin stretching to Eastern Pa. Dew points are still 3-5 degrees higher than they were at 0z but have fallen into the lower to mid 20s along the TN/KY border areas, they were in the upper 10s at 0z. 850s slightly warmer but should wet bulb down with the precip and nice hp in place. 

[John1122]

72-84 changes over to snow from Memphis to Nashville to Knoxville. Nashville blasted with snow, Knox is a mixed bag. Chattanooga/Huntsville/Lawrenceburg are raining.

[John1122]

Not quite as heavy as the epic 0z run, but still pretty darn nice.  All in all, have to hope the warming trend is basically at it's peak. With a 1038-1040 banana high and a storm track along the Gulf this map would verify. Of course that becoming a reality is the million dollar question.

[PEA_RIDGE]

freezing rain area looks like a mess

[John1122]

Here's the clown free of sleet/freezing rain.

[John1122]

Freezing rain.

[John1122]

Quote

Saturday

Cloudy. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then a chance of rain or snow in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 30s. Light winds. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

Saturday Night

Rain or a chance of snow or light sleet. Heavy snow accumulation possible. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

Sunday

Rain or snow likely. Moderate snow accumulation possible. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.

Sunday Night

Cloudy with snow or rain likely. Light snow accumulation possible. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Monday

Cloudy with snow likely or a chance of rain. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Monday Night

Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow. Lows in the mid 20s.

Poor MRX having to write all this out in their ZFP. I'm pretty happy with their Saturday night wording for my area. If I recall the Heavy is usually used for 6+ inches. 1-3 is light, 3-5 is moderate and 6+ is heavy.

[John1122]

The 06z GFS is as ugly as a Tennessee football game outside of SWVA and VA border counties.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

First of all, I want to say thanks to the people who stay up and watch things roll in overnight!

Morning thought.  

Back to the satellite vs balloon sampling. I think both are probably helpful and work together.  The reason I bring this up is that it looks to me like part of this critter has been over what MRX calls the RAOB network (I say it that way because I have no clue what that is an abbreviation for), but the centers of the energy are still over the ocean. I wonder if we have more complete data for parts of it, but not the actual centers of circulation? As the centers come on shore will there be more changes, for better or worse?

Morning GOES 17, with shortwave centers marked offshore