Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 Illusive 18z Euro. Below at hour 90, stolen from SE forum and Ryan Maue on twitter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 The GEFS just keeps looking better and better. Check it out at 114 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 16 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: The GEFS just keeps looking better and better. Check it out at 114 hrs. WxBell has not updated yet...where are you looking at it? I did check it out on Pivotal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: WxBell has not updated yet...where are you looking at it? I did check it out on Pivotal. Just pivotal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: WxBell has not updated yet...where are you looking at it? I did check it out on Pivotal. For the GEFS, I usually use https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 The GFS finally ran out enough to see the entire event. It was similar to the 12z except a little heavier with snow in areas that got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Welp time to run through 0z starting as usual with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Well, I feel like we have reached a milestone. We have been watching potential for this on the Weeklies, then the EPS at d10-15, then many global operational runs, and now we can actually slightly begin to take short range models seriously. We have been watching this for some time. Whew! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 As usual, our forum has done a great job with the lead in to this potential storm...I love to follow you guys and learn what I can. Sunday and Monday may be real interesting in the Tri... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Well, I feel like we have reached a milestone. We have been watching potential for this on the Weeklies, then the EPS at d10-15, then many global operational runs, and now we can actually slightly begin to take short range models seriously. We have been watching this for some time. Whew! Feels like we have run a gauntlet already and still a long way to go (weather wise). Fun storm to have tracked regardless of the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 I've noticed a few people are getting the surface low and the 850 vort comfused, they are 2 separate things. The surface has been roughly locked in going along the coast in more of a Miller A style. The totals across the TN/KY line include the front-end snow, which the central and southern valley will miss. The angle and exact pivot point of the 850 is what makes or breaks the valley. Just glancing at the FV3, it is pivoting or transferring sooner and maxing out the uvv's over the valley as well in the coma head leading to the crazy output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 The precipitation shield varies some in it's depiction between tropical tidbits and pivotal weather at 84 hours. Either way I like what I'm seeing but of course it's the long range nam soo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 NAM end of run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 I am not even sure the icon is worth discussing at this point, but it is warm, the track is seemingly favorable but it skirts off the coast sooner than other models. Upper East tn gets scrapped at the end by some heavy snow but its overall meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 The NAM is fully Namming. It's hi-res with a lot of the same math as the GFS. The FV3 is a hi-res with a lot of the same math as the GFS. Makes me wonder if that's why they are seeing the similar evolution of the systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 11 minutes ago, John1122 said: The NAM is fully Namming. It's hi-res with a lot of the same math as the GFS. The FV3 is a hi-res with a lot of the same math as the GFS. Makes me wonder if that's why they are sgeeing the similar evolution of the systems. I hope so, cause the old GFS is straight up poo poo for most of TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: I hope so, cause the old GFS is straight up poo poo for most of TN. It makes me worrisome how the gfs/icon exit the coast early and at angles not favorable to feed back into the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Save the itchy algae! Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 The 00Z GFS looks like rain for most in TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, Bango said: It makes me worrisome how the gfs/icon exit the coast at early and at angles not favorable to feed back into the interior While it's a solution on the table, that progression is a GFS bias and it's been give much less weight by the WPC. The NAM is almost assuredly overdoing the hp, but a 1041 over the top banana high with that system is as good as it gets for the entire forum region. That set up in late December through mid-February would be a major snow event from I-20 to I-64 in Kentucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, John1122 said: The NAM is fully Namming. It's hi-res with a lot of the same math as the GFS. The FV3 is a hi-res with a lot of the same math as the GFS. Makes me wonder if that's why they are seeing the similar evolution of the systems. I don't consider it the official start to winter until I get NAM'd for the first time. On the occasion I like to pour some whiskey, look out the window towards the planets, then pull up Earl Barker's NAM clowns on my screen. Ah the memories! http://www.wxcaster.com/regional_snowfall.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Right now the hi-res models are basically giving a large portion of the forum a shot at snow. The Canadian is giving the northern 1/3 or so of the forum a major snow event. The GFS is the furthest north with the 850 and most progressive with the gulf low. It basically gives SW Ky, and the Plateau to the Tri-Cities and north notable snow and leaves everyone else out. So a blend of the models is the best way to look at it. A blend of them yields a significant snow threat along the 40 corridor from Oklahoma to the Raleigh area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Well some of us gained back the Canadian. The evolution of the GFS isn’t the final solution. I’m debating staying up to see how long the FV3 can get stuck again at 96. Anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: I don't consider it the official start to winter until I get NAM'd for the first time. On the occasion I like to pour some whiskey, look out the window towards the planets, then pull up Earl Barker's NAM clowns on my screen. Ah the memories! http://www.wxcaster.com/regional_snowfall.htm Clarksville throws down 5 inches of snow from 81-84 on his 3 hour plots. It could be even more since it doesn't go past 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 11 minutes ago, Bango said: It makes me worrisome how the gfs/icon exit the coast early and at angles not favorable to feed back into the interior Not too worried about the ICON, had a pretty good evolution and track. The GFS doesn’t worry me much either, yet. Now if the euro jumps again tonight like last night I will consider that a warning shot. Until then, I’ll just carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Well some of us gained back the Canadian. The evolution of the GFS isn’t the final solution. I’m debating staying up to see how long the FV3 can get stuck again at 96. Anyone else?I’m up for a while longer as well, catching up on process walkthroughs for work. Maybe the FV3 can keep me awake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Blue Ridge said: I’m up for a while longer as well, catching up on process walkthroughs for work. Maybe the FV3 can keep me awake. Hearing from the evil empire to the east (not really) the FV3 is similar to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Through 60 the FV3 is a little slower with the low and further SE with the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Well she didn't make 96 before getting stuck tonight. Apparently lots of data issues at CPC this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 The 0z Canadian is a straight up thumping for NETN/SWVA and the mountains. 2’ in the northeast portion of the state. The QPF turns over to heavy snow quicker than any previous run of the model. QPF totals are just insane for a winter storm. 3.5-4” of QPF for Chatty. 3 to 3.5” for Knoxville and 2.5 to 3” for KTRI. That is indeed a rare sight to see that much moisture modeled from a winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 The 0z Canadian is a straight up thumping for NETN/SWVA and the mountains. 2’ in the northeast portion of the state. The QPF turns over to heavy snow quicker than any previous run of the model. QPF totals are just insane for a winter storm. 3.5-4” of QPF for Chatty. 3 to 3.5” for Knoxville and 2.5 to 3” for KTRI. That is indeed a rare sight to see that much moisture modeled from a winter storm. I’ll conveniently ignore the CMC cold bias and cash out now, please and thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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