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December 8-10 Storm Discussion

Holston_River_Rambler

By Holston_River_Rambler,
in Tennessee Valley

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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

That is nasty in the Carolinas and Georgia.  Shew.  Think you all had some WAA come in at higher elevation on the Plateau for that to be modeled that way?

I'm sure the battlezone is nearby. Normally in this type of set up it's more an issue from Morgan Co down to Cumberland. But we manage it occasionally too, usually with much colder surface temps though.

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Blue Ridge

Blue Ridge

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

After looking over everything, I believe the Euro is having some problems on how to handle the transfer to the coastal. When it begins it's transfer over N AL, it splits the low into two distinct pieces #1 due North to the middle TN/KY border, #2 ESE into GA heading for the coast. The transfer should have been more smoothly. Due to this odd scenario, it shoots the 850s way up over East TN responding to the #1 piece. A smoother transfer and this would have been an even more major storm for the board. Sorry for the long post.

 

 

Great catch. This may well be the root cause of much of the IP/ZR depicted as well.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Until the transfer is worked out, it seems there is some wild swings on the individual members of the EPS...absolute crush jobs board wide.

1 or 2 mbs makes a huge difference in terms of the high pressure over the top.  A stronger high stops that push into middle TN.  I think there will be some type of energy hand off to SE GA.  We just want that to happen before it gets to central Alabama.  The 12z EPS is a nice track in terms of that.  

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TellicoWx

TellicoWx

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Save the itchy algae! said:

Is there precedent for an 850 low splitting into two clear lows that move in different directions like what is depicted on the Euro? It seems to me that one or the other would take over.  

None off the top of my head, but we have seen the Euro go from taking it completely south of us, to shooting it to Indiana, now to south of us then split in two for a sec. The wild ride is far from over I believe.

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Bango

Bango

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z EPS has very few individuals slps that push towards TN, fewer than this AM.  What that means is that the energy hand-off "might" occur south of middle TN.  

Which would benefit more of tn?

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TellicoWx

TellicoWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Save the itchy algae! said:

I'd expect so, but if there were indeed only a few slps moving towards TN then you think the ensemble would be more favorable.

The problem is their is no consensus across any modeling really right now on how to handle it, even individual ensemble members. EPS has members that go from nothing for everyone nearly to members that make the epic 12z run the other day look like a walk in the park.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

So you’re saying the EPS has fewer members turning the system through Tennessee?

 

The 12z CMC I think at mid day tried to send a primary(or some portion of energy) through middle TN and then transfer to SE GA.  The Euro tried at 0z but not to the CMC’s extent.  You could see a few lows on the 0z EPS.  Almost none on the 12z EPS.   We need a consolidated low to the south...don’t want energy transfers from middle TN to the coast as it wrecks the thermal profile with warm air surging into E TN and M TN.  

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Bango

Bango

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z CMC I think at mid day tried to send a primary(or some portion of energy) through middle TN and then transfer to SE GA.  The Euro tried at 0z but not to the CMC’s extent.  You could see a few lows on the 0z EPS.  Almost none on the 12z EPS.   We need a consolidated low to the south...don’t want energy transfers from middle TN to the coast as it wrecks the thermal profile with warm air surging into E TN and M TN.  

What is the controlling factor for the low to be kept south and moving horizontal easterly to Panama city? A stronger high?

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Blue Ridge

Blue Ridge

Posted
Posted

MRX afternoon disco:

Quote 

The highly anticipated and advertised weekend system will begin to
take place on Friday with cyclogenesis occurring along the natural
baroclinic boundary of the northwestern Gulf Coast. Isentropic lift
will increase throughout the day with an E-W oriented boundary
stretching along the northern Gulf Coast. Precipitation will remain
to the south and west of the forecast area on Friday but cloud cover
will increase throughout the day. Expect highs will climb up into
the 40s for most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)...
High pressure over the Southeast and eastern states will be
retreating as a deep trough over the Southern Rockies Friday night
moves into the southern Plains Saturday. Lower pressure will move
along the Gulf Coast Saturday and Saturday night and then is
expected to move off the east coast Sunday night. Light rain will
spread northeast Friday night from the southwest to the northeast
with increasing southwest flow aloft. On Saturday there will be
enough cold dry air aloft for some sleet across northern sections
of the area as moisture will be slow to advect into this area.
Another upper level trough will drop out of central Canada late
Saturday. Models are increasing precipitation amounts some
Saturday night and Sunday which could increase snowfall amounts in
the higher elevations. As the surface low moves up the east coast
it will deepen and pull more cold air into the forecast area. The
lower elevations will get rain Saturday and Saturday night while
higher elevations change over to snow by early Sunday. As the low
moves farther east and northeast expect the at least the northern
valley areas to change over to snow Sunday night and continue
into Monday. Highs Sunday and Monday will be in the 30s higher
elevations to the upper 30s to lower 40s lower elevations. Several
inches of snow are expected across the higher eastern Tennessee
mountains and across the higher elevations of southwest Virginia.
The speed and track of the system is still somewhat uncertain
which will affect precipitation types and amounts.

 

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Holston_River_Rambler

Holston_River_Rambler

Posted
  • Author
Posted

I've been thinking that too. Someone is in for one heck of a NAMing sooner or later. If the Euro was spitting out the amounts it was yesterday, image what the NAM will try to do at range, especially since it seems to be colder overall. I bet if it were now, to run to let's say 120 hours, it would give someone in upper east TN or western NC 40+ inches. 

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said:

@tnweathernut My friend, I do believe we're due for a good, old-fashioned NAMming. 

Why yes BR, we are!  I have been communicating with Carvers some and mentioned that to him earlier........that when this thing gets into NAM range, there will likely be some prodigious snow maps to drool over.  Right, no.  But fun to look at. 

It's good to have everyone on the board again this year and it's GREAT to see some new faces.  I hope we add a few more new members in the coming days and I hope the setup improves for more of us in the TN Valley!

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