John1122 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Lake effect is pretty rare in Chicago. Very lucky to be there for it. I've been in it in NE Ohio before. Among the heaviest snow I've seen falling, but the main thing is the duration of +snow with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 14 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Really don't know how much we got,but it was coming down, tough to tell with the winds.The lake effect snows are starting to kick in now,they are calling for 2-4" tonight.If i were to guess it was 6+ so far.I'll post some pics when i get back home Thanks for asking about my son,he's had a stress fracture in his right hand,he's had it all season.He hasn't been able to compete or practice on the pommel horse all season but last week he started back practicing on it again.His coach was going to let him do it yesterday but it was his first event so he didn't want him to compete since he had five other events for that day and lack of practice since.It wasn't his best day but he did get 2nd place over-all on the parallel bars,think in 3 weeks we go to Knoxville,then a week after that sin city (Las Vegas) Sounds like a great weekend all around, I’m glad your son is getting back to 100% healthy. I’m sure that wrist issue has really been affecting him, hopefully by the time y’all go to Knoxville his coach will let him return to the pommel horse. Knoxville and Vegas In back to back weeks sounds like a lot of fun too, he must be a really talented gymnast! Side note- How the heck do they manage to let people in for free to the Zoo In Chicago?? Be safe traveling home too buddy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Congratulations Tennessee! Vols are really good. Could be Final Four! Meanwhile the Kansas game was more like watching the GFS. 19 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: First full basketball game I've watched in a while. Felt like watching the NAM, but getting an unexpected last 12 hour NW trend in your favor. I will be at peace if the Chiefs win tonight. Third time I remind everyone the lunar eclipse is looking great tonight. Skies are clearing. High clouds possible northwest should not impact viewing. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 10 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Congratulations Tennessee! Vols are really good. Could be Final Four! Meanwhile the Kansas game was more like watching the GFS. I will be at peace if the Chiefs win tonight. Third time I remind everyone the lunar eclipse is looking great tonight. Skies are clearing. High clouds possible northwest should not impact viewing. So sick of refs calling bogus calls.That late hit called on Brady was one of the most pathetic garbage i've ever seen,this was a big turning point in this game.He hit Brady's shoulder pad with his hand as Brady was throwing the damn ball.This was one of the most blatant calls i've ever seen in my life. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 The Rams also got some help. Think the NFL wanted the TV markets in New England and LA for the Super Bowl? I believe both are in the 6 or 7 biggest in the nation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: The Rams also got some help. Think the NFL wanted the TV markets in New England and LA for the Super Bowl? I believe both are in the 6 or 7 biggest in the nation. We was still driving from Chicago, but i heard it was bad also.The quality of the refs are bad and even the instant replay quality with angles is just as bad.Really makes you wonder how much these refs are getting paid off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 12 hours ago, John1122 said: The Rams also got some help. Think the NFL wanted the TV markets in New England and LA for the Super Bowl? I believe both are in the 6 or 7 biggest in the nation. Boston has dipped to #9, but LA is #2. Compare that to KC (#32) and New Orleans (#50). While we are on the subject: Knoxville is now #60, while the Tri-Cities have dipped to #102. Nashville is #27; Memphis #51; Chatt #83; Jackson #177. Back to football: the no-call DPI was atrocious, as was the roughing penalty on KC. I had no skin in the AFCCG, but was really pulling for the Saints. Count me out on Super Bowl viewing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2019 Author Share Posted January 21, 2019 Good story about Roan Mountain and the noise from the wind. I went to college with the journalist who did this story. https://myhome.unctv.org/roan-mountain-ghost-choir/?fbclid=IwAR3Bddea_t7q4hkhn8V2iX2dOXpnbjOKCblKVsrheSbFhUrdi5o2onsktck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 What a world, when Louisiana gets more snow than good portions Tennessee the past two years and it looks to continue this year if the Euro is to be believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 15 hours ago, John1122 said: What a world, when Louisiana gets more snow than good portions Tennessee the past two years and it looks to continue this year if the Euro is to be believed. I’m beginning to think it’s not gonna snow at all in our forum this year. I’ve just got a bad feeling about it, I hope I’m wrong though. Threats continually being pushed to ten days or farther out is not a good sign in my opinion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 25 minutes ago, Icy Hot said: we all get our 2 inches of rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 At least the mud freezes now after the fronts come through, lol! My yard is a swamp when it thaws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 46 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: Threats continually being pushed to ten days or farther out is not a good sign in my opinion. Hey, we got one with 5 this week, lol. And besides, having them hit us at 7 -10 days hasn't worked out, we want it to show up 2-3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 9 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: At least the mud freezes now after the fronts come through, lol! My yard is a swamp when it thaws. You should see the golf course I work at, both courses are just wrecked from all The rain. 5 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Hey, we got one with 5 this week, lol. And besides, having them hit us at 7 -10 days hasn't worked out, we want it to show up 2-3 days out. I’d agree, then again last night we had a threat for Wednesday night and now it’s gone with the wind as of this morning. Except the stupid FV3 still shows it snowing Wednesday night, lol. They need to just retire that thing until they get the bugs worked out because nothing it spews out is remotely close to whats actually gonna happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 I'm starting to think, except in extremely unusual situations (like some of the storms that show up a week out) , having these fancy high resolution models is too much of a good thing. UKMET and Canadian are the way to go. As bad as they are at details, there don't seem to be as many wild swings to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 And then, once within 3 days when there is basic agreement, use your experience with your climate and pattern recognition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Now, I will also say, it's a different story at 500 mb, but for individual storms, I'm starting to like just the CMC and UKMET, until 3 - 5 days. I was playing around with trends on a storm a week or two ago, trying to figure out if one model did better than another, and it really isn't until 3 - 5 days that even the Euro started to be more steadfast. Could be wrong, but I'm willing to bet that the Euro will bring that weekend storm back from Cuba, but I'm not sure even we can weather a NW trend from Cuba, lol!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I'm starting to think, except in extremely unusual situations (like some of the storms that show up a week out) , having these fancy high resolution models is too much of a good thing. UKMET and Canadian are the way to go. As bad as they are at details, there don't seem to be as many wild swings to me. I totally agree, I guess I just got thrown off earlier this year when that Nc storm showed up on models for like a week straight. I guess every system has unique properties that stand out more than others at long lead times though. I wouldn’t mind seeing less hi res stuff though, seems like it’s overkill to have so many. 5 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Now, I will also say, it's a different story at 500 mb, but for individual storms, I'm starting to like just the CMC and UKMET, until 3 - 5 days. I was playing around with trends on a storm a week or two ago, trying to figure out if one model did better than another, and it really isn't until 3 - 5 days that even the Euro started to be more steadfast. Could be wrong, but I'm willing to bet that the Euro will bring that weekend storm back from Cuba, but I'm not sure even we can weather a NW trend from Cuba, lol!!! It pushed it from the coast of Ga/SC to Cuba so who’s to say we can’t reel it back our way. Lol. Seriously though, that’s a huge distance to move over one run even at this lead time. Maybe the cold air is just wreaking havoc on the models, I hope so anyways. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 5 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: I wouldn’t mind seeing less hi res stuff though, seems like it’s overkill to have so many. I've wondered what it would be like to go back to older models, but I guess they retired them for a reason. It would be fun though, knowing what they were, to run one side by side with one of the new ones for 10 days before a storm and see how it played it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said: I've wondered what it would be like to go back to older models, but I guess they retired them for a reason. It would be fun though, knowing what they were, to run one side by side with one of the new ones for 10 days before a storm and see how it played it out. I like that idea, you wouldn’t have anything to lose so why not try it and see what happens. I also wish they’d Adjust some of the algorithms on a few of these newer models that bomb 9 out of 10 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 In some ways though, storms staying in the long range is nothing new. I remember watching the weather channel's 7 day business planner (20 minutes after the hour!) and I always knew you got new data after 2. So every day when I got home from high school I would watch to see if there were any changes to the AM. And same thing in the AM. Sometimes I'd wake up at 3 AM to see the changes if a big storm was forecast. I remember seeing my favorite snow icon appear often at 5 days, only to disappear as we got closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 I think the CMC did a great job with the Dec. storm. Had it as a clean miller A forever, until the other models trended that way. Was it perfect, no. But for the overall idea, it did pretty good and no swinging wildly from run to run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 46 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 1 hour ago, Icy Hot said: we all get our 2 inches of rain. I particularly like the firehose aimed at us on the RGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 But ol Snowy Hibbo has hope: https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2019/01/north-america-on-long-term-22nd-jan.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 I can open an ice skating rink in my back yard. One spot holds water too long. 4 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: At least the mud freezes now after the fronts come through, lol! My yard is a swamp when it thaws. Last night I had no heart watching Kansas basketball. KU won, but Brady no a coin toss ripped out my Chiefs heart the day before. Also lost heart for tracking winter precip. Good news is we enjoyed the lunar eclipse. It was prettier than I remember; last one with clear skies was 20 years ago (my locations). PS. Yes I remember TWC business planner. OMG models sucked back then! But I also looked forward to every update, lol. Finally, Tennessee deserves number one for sure! Defense is amazing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Not a big NFL fan, but was rooting for KC, if for no other reason than I despise New England. George R.R. Martin, long time Jets fan, used to call Belichick "evil little Bill" on his blog. Another good sign the Patriots are full of evil. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Model snow on Day 7 and farther is like leaving 2 minutes on the clock for Tom Brady. Probably won't go well. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 4 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Finally, Tennessee deserves number one for sure! Defense is amazing. I agree. I’m a Kentucky fan, so I don’t enjoy saying this. I really think UT has been the best team all year. Duke is the most talented, but the experience and chemistry that UT plays with gives them the edge in my opinion. I try to be realistic when it comes to Kentucky. The first half of the season was ugly at times, but I’m starting to see signs that this Kentucky team is figuring it out. They just can't get everyone playing at a high level at the same time. UK will still have some ugly games at times the rest of the season, but I think they could make some noise in March (I hope). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 Maybe we should run the 3k NAM out to 7 days with the Fv3 tropical tidbits snow algorithm. Go big or go home. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted January 22, 2019 Share Posted January 22, 2019 brilliant minds in the other place a person clearly with Huntsville as their location says euro shows 2 hits for us next week then about 5 posts ask WHERE? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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