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Winter 'Tis the Season Banter Thread 2018-2019


Carvers Gap

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North Ark benefits from downslope off the Ozarks. Must be nice. Never happens in CHA.

Kansas let Texas stay too close last night. Syracuse took down Duke at Cameron, wow! 

Thankfully Tennessee is the early game tonight. I'm not a fan of staying up for the late game.

Saturday Showcase (ESPN) will be a gem. Kansas at UWV then Auburn hosts Kentucky. Tennessee hosts Bama on ESPN2 vs the usual SECN. I'm happy about that!

Then Sunday I will try and remember to breathe while the Chiefs host the Pats.

European weekly charts also show soccer culture in Chattanooga. CFC Blue is our team. No Red Wolves. Better DEAD than RED!

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3 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

North Ark benefits from downslope off the Ozarks. Must be nice. Never happens in CHA.

Kansas let Texas stay too close last night. Syracuse took down Duke at Cameron, wow! 

Thankfully Tennessee is the early game tonight. I'm not a fan of staying up for the late game.

Saturday Showcase (ESPN) will be a gem. Kansas at UWV then Auburn hosts Kentucky. Tennessee hosts Bama on ESPN2 vs the usual SECN. I'm happy about that!

Then Sunday I will try and remember to breathe while the Chiefs host the Pats.

European weekly charts also show soccer culture in Chattanooga. CFC Blue is our team. No Red Wolves. Better DEAD than RED!

What is the wx for the Kansas City game?  Have heard very cold and windy.  Should be interesting seeing two teams that play outside in the cold go at it...no dome teams struggling to acclimate in this one.  Grown man football in the cold.  

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4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

What is the wx for the Kansas City game?  Have heard very cold and windy.  Should be interesting seeing two teams that play outside in the cold go at it...no dome teams struggling to acclimate in this one.  Grown man football in the cold.  

High is supposed to be 8 degrees.

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Fixing to head to Chicago in a bit for my sons gymnastics meet this weekend:sled:

Friday night through Wednesday...

The primary concerns during the extended forecast continue to
focus on:
-Snow amounts Friday night and Saturday.
-The threat for a period of moderate to heavy lake effect snow
 with additional accumulations over portions of far northeastern
 IL and northwest IN Saturday night into Sunday.
-The period of very cold weather expected Sunday and Monday.
-More periods of active weather next week, which could result in
 more accumulating snow.

Not much has changed from previous thinking with the storm system
expected to shift eastward across the Ozarks and into the TN
valley on Saturday. While the main track of this storm system will
remain well south of the area, there are good chances for
accumulating snow over our area Friday night into at least
Saturday morning. Model guidance continues to suggest that a
strong band of 850-700 mb frontogenesis will develop somewhere
over northern IL/southern WI beginning late Friday, but really
ramping up Friday evening and night. While the actual placement of
this band of frontogenesis, and the associated heaviest snow
potential, may shift some in the guidance over the next 24 to 36
hours as forecast guidance continues to hone in how this
mesoscale setup will evolve over the area, signs continue to point
at northern IL (mainly north of I-80) Friday night. The before
focus for snow then appears to shift over the southern half of my
CWA into Saturday in association with the main storm system
moving into the TN Valley. Overall, this setup could result in two
maximum areas of snow over the area; one potentially over far
northern IL, with a second over my southern CWA.

There is some increasing concern for heavy snow associated with
the band of snow Friday night over northern IL. Given the good
feed of moisture into the area, with 700 mb mixing ratios
expected to be around 2.8 g/kg,this should result in some effect
snowfall. This should especially be the case given that the
frontogenetic forcing for ascent looks to produce good ascent
right through the favored dendritic growth zone. With all this in
mind, along with the fact that we should have fairly high snow
ratios of 14-16 to 1, we could easily see some areas of northern
IL end up with 6+ inches of snow through Saturday morning.
Thereafter, the main synoptic snow should begin to focus over my
southern CWA by Saturday afternoon, where amounts here in the 4"
to 6" range appear probable through Saturday evening. Increasing
northeast winds during the day Saturday, may also result in some
blowing and drifting snow issues, especially in open areas.

The next concern will be the lake effect snow following the main
system snow. While some lake enhancement could keep light snow
going over portions of northeastern IL Saturday afternoon, it
appears that the better thermodyamics set up for heavy lake
effect snow may hold off until sometime late Saturday evening or
night. Strong lake induced instability is likely to setup over
southern Lake Michigan Saturday night through Sunday as 850 mb
temps drop to around -18C, essentially setting up ~20C
temperature differences between the lake temperature. Inversion
heights should reach around 6000-6500 feet, which should cut right
through the dendritic growth zone, so this should be sufficient
to support heavy lake effect snow. While the specifics will take
time to iron out, the synoptic pressure pattern of low pressure
moving up the east coast and a strong surface high building over
the Upper Midwest looks favorable for the potential development of
a single band of heavy lake effect snow. This band looks to start
over northeastern IL Saturday night into Sunday morning, before
gradually shifting over northwestern IN during the day Sunday. The
main question that remains is residence time of the band over any
given area, which will have large implications on the amount of
snow that falls.

A winter storm watch may be needed for parts of northern IL, north
of I-80 from Friday night into Saturday, with the watch possibly
being needed for far northeastern IL through Sunday morning, due
to the continued lake effect threat. We have opted to hold off on
any headline at this time though, to let the day shift get another
look at this snow event.

Otherwise, expect cold conditions over the area for Sunday and
Monday. Highs both days in the teens look likely, with overnight
lows below zero in some areas of IL. We could also have some -10
or colder wind chills Sunday night.

The weather pattern looks to remain active into next week. This
looks to result in more storm systems to keep an eye on for the
potential for more accumulating snow across the area.

KJB
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5 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Fixing to head to Chicago in a bit for my sons gymnastics meet this weekend:sled:


Friday night through Wednesday...

The primary concerns during the extended forecast continue to
focus on:
-Snow amounts Friday night and Saturday.
-The threat for a period of moderate to heavy lake effect snow
 with additional accumulations over portions of far northeastern
 IL and northwest IN Saturday night into Sunday.
-The period of very cold weather expected Sunday and Monday.
-More periods of active weather next week, which could result in
 more accumulating snow.

Not much has changed from previous thinking with the storm system
expected to shift eastward across the Ozarks and into the TN
valley on Saturday. While the main track of this storm system will
remain well south of the area, there are good chances for
accumulating snow over our area Friday night into at least
Saturday morning. Model guidance continues to suggest that a
strong band of 850-700 mb frontogenesis will develop somewhere
over northern IL/southern WI beginning late Friday, but really
ramping up Friday evening and night. While the actual placement of
this band of frontogenesis, and the associated heaviest snow
potential, may shift some in the guidance over the next 24 to 36
hours as forecast guidance continues to hone in how this
mesoscale setup will evolve over the area, signs continue to point
at northern IL (mainly north of I-80) Friday night. The before
focus for snow then appears to shift over the southern half of my
CWA into Saturday in association with the main storm system
moving into the TN Valley. Overall, this setup could result in two
maximum areas of snow over the area; one potentially over far
northern IL, with a second over my southern CWA.

There is some increasing concern for heavy snow associated with
the band of snow Friday night over northern IL. Given the good
feed of moisture into the area, with 700 mb mixing ratios
expected to be around 2.8 g/kg,this should result in some effect
snowfall. This should especially be the case given that the
frontogenetic forcing for ascent looks to produce good ascent
right through the favored dendritic growth zone. With all this in
mind, along with the fact that we should have fairly high snow
ratios of 14-16 to 1, we could easily see some areas of northern
IL end up with 6+ inches of snow through Saturday morning.
Thereafter, the main synoptic snow should begin to focus over my
southern CWA by Saturday afternoon, where amounts here in the 4"
to 6" range appear probable through Saturday evening. Increasing
northeast winds during the day Saturday, may also result in some
blowing and drifting snow issues, especially in open areas.

The next concern will be the lake effect snow following the main
system snow. While some lake enhancement could keep light snow
going over portions of northeastern IL Saturday afternoon, it
appears that the better thermodyamics set up for heavy lake
effect snow may hold off until sometime late Saturday evening or
night. Strong lake induced instability is likely to setup over
southern Lake Michigan Saturday night through Sunday as 850 mb
temps drop to around -18C, essentially setting up ~20C
temperature differences between the lake temperature. Inversion
heights should reach around 6000-6500 feet, which should cut right
through the dendritic growth zone, so this should be sufficient
to support heavy lake effect snow. While the specifics will take
time to iron out, the synoptic pressure pattern of low pressure
moving up the east coast and a strong surface high building over
the Upper Midwest looks favorable for the potential development of
a single band of heavy lake effect snow. This band looks to start
over northeastern IL Saturday night into Sunday morning, before
gradually shifting over northwestern IN during the day Sunday. The
main question that remains is residence time of the band over any
given area, which will have large implications on the amount of
snow that falls.

A winter storm watch may be needed for parts of northern IL, north
of I-80 from Friday night into Saturday, with the watch possibly
being needed for far northeastern IL through Sunday morning, due
to the continued lake effect threat. We have opted to hold off on
any headline at this time though, to let the day shift get another
look at this snow event.

Otherwise, expect cold conditions over the area for Sunday and
Monday. Highs both days in the teens look likely, with overnight
lows below zero in some areas of IL. We could also have some -10
or colder wind chills Sunday night.

The weather pattern looks to remain active into next week. This
looks to result in more storm systems to keep an eye on for the
potential for more accumulating snow across the area.

KJB

Good luck to your son with his gymnastics meet!  Good luck to you in seeing snow.

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9 hours ago, tnweathernut said:

Good luck to your son with his gymnastics meet!  Good luck to you in seeing snow.

Thanks,hope we see something.Hope we dont get stuck here also,i want to leave Sunday morn ...lol

 

Tonight
Cloudy, with a low around 26. West northwest wind around 5 mph.
Friday
A 50 percent chance of snow after 3pm. Cloudy, with a steady temperature around 27. North northwest wind 5 to 15 mph becoming east northeast in the afternoon.
Friday Night
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Patchy blowing snow after midnight. Steady temperature around 29. Blustery, with an east northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Saturday
Snow, mainly before noon. Patchy blowing snow. High near 26. Blustery, with a northeast wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Saturday Night
Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 18. Blustery, with a north northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Sunday
Snow showers likely, mainly before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 19. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday Night
A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 9.
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Good luck at the meet @jaxjagman and safe travel. I think Illinois will get the roads passable even if cold reduces effectiveness of road treatment. Wind could help evaporate or sublime water too.

Regarding the endless cloud cover the last few weeks, we may need a Sanitarium thread in here of our own. Clear Sunday night for the lunar eclipse would buy me a little more time of sanity. Chiefs better win too!

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this is the stuff i enjoy, watching the actual storm as it moves towards us......right now the low is at the top of the texas panhandle projected to move east but now moving ese......temps here in walker county were forecast to be in the low 60s but so far 50 is the high every day this week has been at least 10 degrees cooler than forecast

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I saw this strange thing in the sky this afternoon for a few minutes. It was really weird. At first I was concerned there might be something wrong. The grey sky became blotched with a blue color. Then, and you're not going to believe this, some sort of light disk appeared to shine behind the comforting grey shades of the heavens and even seemed to radiate through the blue patches. 

Inuit-Aleut languages have many's a word for snow and Ireland supposed has 50 shades of green. 

Does that leave us in the eastern valley in the winter with 50 shades of ....

Well, now that I think of that, not going there. 

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On 1/17/2019 at 9:02 AM, jaxjagman said:

Fixing to head to Chicago in a bit for my sons gymnastics meet this weekend:sled:


Friday night through Wednesday...

The primary concerns during the extended forecast continue to
focus on:
-Snow amounts Friday night and Saturday.
-The threat for a period of moderate to heavy lake effect snow
 with additional accumulations over portions of far northeastern
 IL and northwest IN Saturday night into Sunday.
-The period of very cold weather expected Sunday and Monday.
-More periods of active weather next week, which could result in
 more accumulating snow.

Not much has changed from previous thinking with the storm system
expected to shift eastward across the Ozarks and into the TN
valley on Saturday. While the main track of this storm system will
remain well south of the area, there are good chances for
accumulating snow over our area Friday night into at least
Saturday morning. Model guidance continues to suggest that a
strong band of 850-700 mb frontogenesis will develop somewhere
over northern IL/southern WI beginning late Friday, but really
ramping up Friday evening and night. While the actual placement of
this band of frontogenesis, and the associated heaviest snow
potential, may shift some in the guidance over the next 24 to 36
hours as forecast guidance continues to hone in how this
mesoscale setup will evolve over the area, signs continue to point
at northern IL (mainly north of I-80) Friday night. The before
focus for snow then appears to shift over the southern half of my
CWA into Saturday in association with the main storm system
moving into the TN Valley. Overall, this setup could result in two
maximum areas of snow over the area; one potentially over far
northern IL, with a second over my southern CWA.

There is some increasing concern for heavy snow associated with
the band of snow Friday night over northern IL. Given the good
feed of moisture into the area, with 700 mb mixing ratios
expected to be around 2.8 g/kg,this should result in some effect
snowfall. This should especially be the case given that the
frontogenetic forcing for ascent looks to produce good ascent
right through the favored dendritic growth zone. With all this in
mind, along with the fact that we should have fairly high snow
ratios of 14-16 to 1, we could easily see some areas of northern
IL end up with 6+ inches of snow through Saturday morning.
Thereafter, the main synoptic snow should begin to focus over my
southern CWA by Saturday afternoon, where amounts here in the 4"
to 6" range appear probable through Saturday evening. Increasing
northeast winds during the day Saturday, may also result in some
blowing and drifting snow issues, especially in open areas.

The next concern will be the lake effect snow following the main
system snow. While some lake enhancement could keep light snow
going over portions of northeastern IL Saturday afternoon, it
appears that the better thermodyamics set up for heavy lake
effect snow may hold off until sometime late Saturday evening or
night. Strong lake induced instability is likely to setup over
southern Lake Michigan Saturday night through Sunday as 850 mb
temps drop to around -18C, essentially setting up ~20C
temperature differences between the lake temperature. Inversion
heights should reach around 6000-6500 feet, which should cut right
through the dendritic growth zone, so this should be sufficient
to support heavy lake effect snow. While the specifics will take
time to iron out, the synoptic pressure pattern of low pressure
moving up the east coast and a strong surface high building over
the Upper Midwest looks favorable for the potential development of
a single band of heavy lake effect snow. This band looks to start
over northeastern IL Saturday night into Sunday morning, before
gradually shifting over northwestern IN during the day Sunday. The
main question that remains is residence time of the band over any
given area, which will have large implications on the amount of
snow that falls.

A winter storm watch may be needed for parts of northern IL, north
of I-80 from Friday night into Saturday, with the watch possibly
being needed for far northeastern IL through Sunday morning, due
to the continued lake effect threat. We have opted to hold off on
any headline at this time though, to let the day shift get another
look at this snow event.

Otherwise, expect cold conditions over the area for Sunday and
Monday. Highs both days in the teens look likely, with overnight
lows below zero in some areas of IL. We could also have some -10
or colder wind chills Sunday night.

The weather pattern looks to remain active into next week. This
looks to result in more storm systems to keep an eye on for the
potential for more accumulating snow across the area.

KJB

  Are you snowed in yet buddy??  Hope your sons meet is going well too!

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8 hours ago, AMZ8990 said:

  Are you snowed in yet buddy??  Hope your sons meet is going well too!

Really don't know how much we got,but it was coming down, tough to tell with the winds.The lake effect snows are starting to kick in now,they are calling for 2-4" tonight.If i were to guess it was 6+ so far.I'll post some pics when i get back home

Thanks for asking about my son,he's had a stress fracture in his right hand,he's had it all season.He hasn't been able to compete or  practice on the pommel horse all season but last week he started back practicing on it again.His coach was going to let him do it yesterday but it was his first event so he didn't want him to compete since he had five other events for that day and lack of practice since.It wasn't his best day but he did get 2nd place over-all on the parallel bars,think in 3 weeks we go to Knoxville,then a week after that sin city (Las Vegas) :)

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We should see a nice band starting to develop here shortly

 

National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
806 PM CST Sat Jan 19 2019

.UPDATE...
806 PM CST

For Evening Update...

No significant changes to going forecast this evening. Light lake
effect snow showers showing increasing coverage as expected, with
high-res guidance remaining similar in depiction of transition to
a more intense single-band structure late this evening. Going
forecast has this detailed nicely, with headlines structured
appropriately.

Evening surface analysis depicts 996 mb low pressure south of the
Ohio River over east central Kentucky. Tight surface pressure
gradient extends into the southern Great Lakes and mid-Mississippi
Valley regions, producing gusty north-northeast winds and strong
low-level cold advection across the region. While snow associated
with the low pressure system has moved out of the forecast area,
the cold low-level air traversing Lake Michigan was resulting in
increasingly organized lake effect snow showers into parts of
northeast IL and far northwest IN early this evening. High-res
model guidance continues to be in very good agreement in depicting
increasing low-level convergent focus developing along the west
shore of the lake later this evening, with a transition from
current loosely organized multi-band snow showers into a stronger
largely single band LES plume later tonight. While inversion
heights remain generally in the 6500-7500 ft AGL range tonight
into Sunday, all other parameters favor the potential for strong
LES with periods of heavy snowfall rates within the single-band
plume. Lake surface to 850 mb delta T`s around 20C, large positive
area/CAPE below the inversion, and cloud layer temps within the
favored -12C to -18C dendritic growth zone all support strong
convective snow elements. 4km NAM/NMM/HRRR are all generally
similar in depiction of heavier snow developing into far northeast
IL after 9-10 pm this evening, with the best convergent axis
slowly shifting from Lake Co. IL southeast across Cook Co. IL
overnight, and eventually into northwest IN by early Sunday
morning. Lighter snow showers or flurries will likely persist
farther inland, though the greatest potential for accumulations of
substance appear likely to be limited to the lake-adjacent
counties of Lake (IL), Cook, Lake (IN) and Porter. This is exactly
as indicated in forecast from previous shift, and see no need for
any changes to the details or headlines at this time.
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RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
823 PM CST Sat Jan 19 2019

...Heavy Lake Effect Snow Showers Developing Tonight...

ILZ014-201030-
/O.CON.KLOT.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-190120T1500Z/
Cook-
Including the city of Chicago
823 PM CST Sat Jan 19 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow, heavy at times. Total snow
  accumulations of 2 to 5 inches expected. Winds gusting as high
  as 35 mph, with blowing and drifting snow near the lake.

* WHERE...Cook County.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions and
  temporary significantly reduce visibility.
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3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
823 PM CST Sat Jan 19 2019

...Heavy Lake Effect Snow Showers Developing Tonight...

ILZ014-201030-
/O.CON.KLOT.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-190120T1500Z/
Cook-
Including the city of Chicago
823 PM CST Sat Jan 19 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow, heavy at times. Total snow
  accumulations of 2 to 5 inches expected. Winds gusting as high
  as 35 mph, with blowing and drifting snow near the lake.

* WHERE...Cook County.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions and
  temporary significantly reduce visibility.

Awesome, man.  Not everyday folks from Tennessee get to experience Lake effect snow!

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1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Awesome, man.  Not everyday folks from Tennessee get to experience Lake effect snow!

 I know man.This is the 3rd year we've came here.Last year we just saw some blowing flakes,year before we walked around the zoo without jackets,but i will admit Chicago has a cool zoo with winter animals plus this zoo is free which it makes it even more awesome

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