Winter 'Tis the Season Banter Thread 2018-2019

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Just going to throw this in banter and go hide somewhere. (I................... borrowed it....................from another place). 

That is the Weeklies map...needless to say they were pretty good from week 3 onward.  Might as well drop that in the main pattern thread.  Was a heckuva run.

[Runman292]

Hmmm, I'm seeing some flakes for Friday night near La Follette. Likely won't stick, but I hope I get to see it.

[BlunderStorm]

Up here I could have a legit winter weather advisory event if the temps drop fast enough. I've been keeping quiet about it so maybe it won't jinx me.

[Carvers Gap]

Merry Christmas, TN Valley Sub-forum.  We can dream, right???!!!!

 

[Mountian Man]

Merry Christmas everyone. I have seen snow that deep. Superstorm 93 we received 40in.

[BlunderStorm]

I wish you all a Merry Christmas!

 

[Met1985]

Merry Christmas to everyone!

[Windspeed]

Merry Christmas, TN Valley Sub-forum.  We can dream, right???!!!!
 

Construction in those parts take into account many feet of snow. If a blizzard like that hit the Tennessee Valley, it would be a national emergency due to the multitude of roof collapses. I love big snows, but I don't know about 4+ feet. lol... At any rate, Merry Christmas to all!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Merry Christmas from TROWAL dog:

Who, I should add, managed to pull down a whole carved turkey carcass from a countertop today! 

[jaxjagman]

Ditto to Merry Christmas,got a new Chrome notebook and having a hard time posting

[jaxjagman]

Think i figured my new notebook,definite works much better using a mouse.Always takes  awhile to getting use to something new

[BillT]

was the southern weather site set up just to mock this site? i ask because the majority here are reasonable, while the vast majority there are imby rules breakers mocking science.....storm5 is a prime example that kid was spain park chris in Spanns chats years ago and was the most negative person i ever encountered about the weather.....they banned me there but still lie in claiming i am not banned.....i seek discussion of the weather and find it here, and really do see mocking of that type effort over there with the constant negative stupid comments. example = "At what point do we start worrying about weeds? Especially given all the rain." is that a science based comment about the current or upcoming weather?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I think we need some more rain. I know my yard isn't quite a pond yet, so would be nice to be able to get 10 more inches over the next 2 weeks or so. I'd like to be able to kayak downtown as well. 

[PisgahNCWeather]

20 hours ago, *Flash* said:

Not sure. The SouthernWx forum acts like an extension of the SE AmericanWx forum, though as you alluded to, the need for moderation is much greater that way given the trolling (took a one month test drive years ago and had a hard time justifying the time). Perhaps the site was set up to attract locals who simply wanted to talk weather rather than analyze weather? At any rate, there are only local weather forums, but AmericanWx does the best job in facilitating intellectual community. No cliques, no drama. Just come as you are and relish the 'Cheers' camaraderie. 

It is difficult at best to have to weed thru the comments. Only a few with science backing what they say and it is so tiresome hearing over and over from the same ones how they feel about the current models. You guys truly have a great forum and thankful to visit here and get sound reasoning.

 

[Runman292]

Just my 2 cents, but out of all the weather message boards I've visited, Americanwx is number 1 in my book. I definitely appreciate all of the short and long term weather discussions by meteorologists and weather enthusiasts on this site. I've learned a good bit more about the weather by being on this site.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

And it came to pass in those days that the lands were soaked. Yet the hills and plains and mountains of the Tanasi coveted that they should be named Rainforest. Yea yes and verily did even the hills cry out: "Oh, that we might have a drop more of rain! Oh that the heavens would open and flood us with their love!" And lo, the Tropics heard. They discussed in their councils what should be done. Some said that moisture should be sent from the south and east, where it was abundant, moreover was it closer to the needful place, yea even being nigh to the lands of the Tanasi; others considered that the rains might be more abundant and beneficial if they came from the south and west, that they might quench the desert sands on their way. At length it was decided that all the rains must go, so dire was the need. And so it was that the vapors of water converged in the Gulf of Mexico and as they travelled north they found even to their surprise great divergence aloft and forsooth jet entrance regions to greet them with their mighty lift. For the Lord of the Pacific had wretched and forth sprang a vort max full grown and robust to help them. And the rains fell and the mountains did rejoice. 

[Carvers Gap]

I was reminded of this game today....2000 Independence(Snow) Bowl in Shreveport, LA.

https://www.weather.gov/shv/event_2000-12-31_snow

 

[John1122]

I haven't looked but don't really look. If it's people in the Southeast, that's baffling, a good portion of them already have exceeded their normal snow for the season. They are playing with house money at this point. 

[John1122]

GFS and the Euro are getting closer. Somewhere between Nashville to Fayetteville  in a SW to NE line wins big between the two. GFS was a big hitter from Memphis to Clarksville. The Euro was NW of that area. Big shift for the GFS from 0z to 06z. Still a long way out and a lot of wiggle room to go with it but not terribly long at this point. The GFS gets things cooking over West Tn and and Southern Arkansas during the day Wednesday into Wednesday evening.

[AMZ8990]

21 minutes ago, John1122 said:

GFS and the Euro are getting closer. Somewhere between Nashville to Fayetteville  in a SW to NE line wins big between the two. GFS was a big hitter from Memphis to Clarksville. The Euro was NW of that area. Big shift for the GFS from 0z to 06z. Still a long way out and a lot of wiggle room to go with it but not terribly long at this point. The GFS gets things cooking over West Tn and and Southern Arkansas during the day Wednesday into Wednesday evening.

Interesting, definitely a welcome sight to my eyes this morning.  Models are hinting at something for sure, maybe we can get the variables to line up for us!!

[AMZ8990]

FV3 is in line with the GFS at 6z, although the FV3 is wonky so I don’t put much stock into it.  We will have to watch for progressions on today’s model runs to see if there’s any truth to this look!!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

8 hours ago, *Flash* said:

17 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

 

I like this translation. Too bad it’s not on Bible Gateway.

It's an apocryphal prophecy book (Prophecies of the Tanasi), which seems to have been thrown out pretty early because of its dubious provenance, only recently rediscovered by "Ancient Alien Man" from the History Channel. There are some who say he just made it up though, because if it is indeed as old as he suggests and Phoenician sailors carried it across the Atlantic, it would most certainly been made of papyrus and have rotted in its supposed depository, a secret cave in the Blue Ridge whose location only Ancient Alien Man knows.  There is a possibly mention of it in Pseudo Isidore, but sadly that particular section was partially burned in the 1670 century it what seems like a vain attempt to keep a minor English noble's manor house warm during the Maunder Minimum.  

Even more sadly the section I quoted from ends (as all of the saddest stories do) when the lands of the Tanasi get exactly what they want, but it turns out to be not what they needed. There's wailing and gnashing of teeth. And rain. 

Here's another section that may be significant: 

"And it came to pass in those days that the storms came, the south winds blew, rain soaked the land, and snow lovers cried unto the heavens, yet not fully understanding the strange and ancient prophecy

 'Oh, let the one called Modoki be born again in the midst of the Great Sea, as in ancient times, as he shall be born again, time without end. And let the sun wane still and silent, so that verily its spots be lost. And let the sacred Wheel of Mad-Julen break and falter in the West.  Yea yes and even upon its second spoke. And let the enmity between the ancient enemies Darwin and Tahiti drop into the abyss so that their weapons the Cells of Hadley and the Jet of the Sea die. And let a sign be given even in the upper heavens that the balance be restored and the snows returned.'

And they waited to see if they were heard and beyond their ken, the highest heavens gave then a sign."

Ancient Alien Man claims that in the margin of this section there was a drawing that looked like a blue and red yin/yang symbol alongside a wobbly line that travelled around a square divided into 8 sections made by lines radiating from a circle in the square's middle. But since he refuses to produce the manuscript (claims it is too fragile), we have no way of verifying these claims. 

 

[AMZ8990]

21 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

You and me both! Maybe this is yet anther example of NA modeling losing a system in the mid-range only to bring it back nearer the double digit hour mark.

  I hope so!  Often times we talk about systems like these coming right before a semi pattern change, maybe this is our treat before the January warm up period.  It has happened like this before so it will happen again eventually.  

[weathertree4u]

By the looks of long range, I will need to start mowing the lawn again here pretty soon, just crazy, especially when one considers all the predictions for just the opposite this Winter. 

[Carvers Gap]

11 hours ago, weathertree4u said:

By the looks of long range, I will need to start mowing the lawn again here pretty soon, just crazy, especially when one considers all the predictions for just the opposite this Winter. 

No doubt.  My last tree finally dropped its leaves due to the abnormally hot weather in September and October.  I may only have like a four week break before the grass has to be cut again(hopefully that is not the case)!  LOL.

[weathertree4u]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

No doubt.  My last tree finally dropped its leaves due to the abnormally hot weather in September and October.  I may only have like a four week break before the grass has to be cut again(hopefully that is not the case)!  LOL.

Keep thinking will get some ray of hope lol but wow, this is like the third or fourth winter in a row that has seemingly at this point, gone the opposite of what was predicted 

[Carvers Gap]

59 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

Keep thinking will get some ray of hope lol but wow, this is like the third or fourth winter in a row that has seemingly at this point, gone the opposite of what was predicted 

Seasonal predictions are just a total crapshoot.  (I think it is Mr Bob that doesn't like analogs.  I think he and Jeff are ENSO guys in terms of seasonal drivers.  This year is a great example of why.)  Getting a handle on chaos is one of the great frontiers of Mathematics.  I don't hold seasonal forecasts against anyone.  I just appreciate folks giving it a shot.  Right now, chaos just got the better of many.  For example, who could have predicted the MJO would be on steroids and that the SOI would have stayed negative for December during a Nino?  Maybe we could have seen the gradient deal...I wouldn't have even thought about that until now!  But, we are much better now at forecasting than 20 years ago.  That said, if we still get a backloaded winter all that we needed to do was just take weak Nino climatology.  Nino winters are notoriously warm in December and then flip during mid-January.  The Nina winters are usually extreme cold and warmth along with being dry.  Second year Nina winters are a bit different and can be better than the first year.  Last winter, we went bone dry during a superb stretch of excellent cold.  Last winter was a good look to steal a basketball term...it just didn't drop.  It was a second year Nina.  Moderate to strong Nina winters or Super Ninos are generally just bad for this area.  So, I rolled with ENSO climatology this year just to keep it simple...and I am still in the game.  I am not saying that to boast...because really I am just using the weak Nino research that has already been done.  So, that really isn't my idea.  I may just use ENSO for my winter ideas during the future along w my favorite, the QBO.  Now, I will echo what Bob Chill has been preaching all day in the MA thread....some winters are known for good patterns on modeling that just keep getting pushed back.  That said, as PSU stated, most winters rarely feature the same pattern for the entire winter.  So, this likely shakes up...could be worse or could be better.  Plus, we live in area that can see 2-3 blanks during a decade.

[weathertree4u]

23 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Seasonal predictions are just a total crapshoot.  (I think it is Mr Bob that doesn't like analogs.  I think he and Jeff are ENSO guys in terms of seasonal drivers.  This year is a great example of why.)  Getting a handle on chaos is one of the great frontiers of Mathematics.  I don't hold seasonal forecasts against anyone.  I just appreciate folks giving it a shot.  Right now, chaos just got the better of many.  For example, who could have predicted the MJO would be on steroids and that the SOI would have stayed negative for December during a Nino?  Maybe we could have seen the gradient deal...I wouldn't have even thought about that until now!  But, we are much better now at forecasting than 20 years ago.  That said, if we still get a backloaded winter all that we needed to do was just take weak Nino climatology.  Nino winters are notoriously warm in December and then flip during mid-January.  The Nina winters are usually extreme cold and warmth along with being dry.  Second year Nina winters are a bit different and can be better than the first year.  Last winter, we went bone dry during a superb stretch of excellent cold.  Last winter was a good look to steal a basketball term...it just didn't drop.  It was a second year Nina.  Moderate to strong Nina winters or Super Ninos are generally just bad for this area.  So, I rolled with ENSO climatology this year just to keep it simple...and I am still in the game.  I am not saying that to boast...because really I am just using the weak Nino research that has already been done.  So, that really isn't my idea.  I may just use ENSO for my winter ideas during the future along w my favorite, the QBO.  Now, I will echo what Bob Chill has been preaching all day in the MA thread....some winters are known for good patterns on modeling that just keep getting pushed back.  That said, as PSU stated, most winters rarely feature the same pattern for the entire winter.  So, this likely shakes up...could be worse or could be better.  Plus, we live in area that can see 2-3 blanks during a decade.

True of course on all points! Hopefully things will turn around, after all, we are just entering January!

[jaxjagman]

Happy New Years !!You know when your kids are getting old and you're getting older when you tell them i'm gonna buy some fireworks and we'll set them off ,then yours kids say, why?...sigh..  I miss my younger bunch.

[John1122]

Which comes first, an OC for Tennessee or the return of cold weather?