Winter 'Tis the Season Banter Thread 2018-2019

[Holston_River_Rambler]

True. It would be the most snow I've seen since 1996. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Good times when we get the HOT tag for a discussion of how bad things have been so far and why they've been that way,

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

 

[John1122]

That station gets over 800 inches of snow a year. It snows usually every month of the year there too. Above it, on Rainier is my favorite place to look at point forecasts. You'll see 30+ inch days for days on end forecast at times.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

 

 

http://mentalfloss.com/article/574054/clevelands-nws-small-dog-advisory-high-winds?fbclid=IwAR2AgUkcEY53850Q1v4ei9WzRLLmNzbcnT-4QW7LmMoFP447kCJsHdZpaoI 

 

What color scheme would a small dog warning have? A watch or advisory? 

Don't get me wrong. I'm ok with this. 

[Greyhound]

From Facebook:

59 years ago on February 13, 1960, 17.5 inches of snow dumped in Knoxville. The snowfall total from this storm was 18.8 inches. 17.5 inches of snow is the most snow in one day in Knoxville since records began in 1871. It was 71° 3 days before this 18.8" of snow and it was also 71° in Knoxville 2 days before the Blizzard of 93!

Knoxville Monthly Snowfall totals in 1960:

January 1960: 8.9"
February 1960: 23.3"
March 1960: 20.2" (3 snowstorms on 2nd-3rd, 9th, and 11th)

56.7" of snow fell in Knoxville from 1959-1960, the most snow in one year in Knoxville since records began in 1871.


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

[nrgjeff]

ESPN Saturday Showcase is going to be big time! Kansas takes the floor at 4. All kinds of ACC dogfights are scheduled. Tennessee invades Rupp for Prime Time! I will not be looking at much weather until Sunday or Monday. Saturday is dedicated to college basketball.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Made the jump to try an area near Corbin. 50 or so right now and definitely a different air mass from when I left Knoxville. May end up a little too far south, but we'll see in a bit I guess. 

[BlunderStorm]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Made the jump to try an area near Corbin. 50 or so right now and definitely a different air mass from when I left Knoxville. May end up a little too far south, but we'll see in a bit I guess. 

I would have went to the Ky-Va border and set up on black mountain on the roadside overlook for best results. Hope it works out for you and Kentucky over there. To be fair though this snow looks to be mostly determined by latitude and luck.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Fv3 is bringing it tonight:

 

[BlunderStorm]

7 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Fv3 is bringing it tonight:

 

I'm the most tickled with it laying 3"+ at Virginia Beach.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I saw what happened, after I looked westward on my map. Fv3 with those new microphysics opened the portal again:

 

Ice Scrabblers trying to bring it to Cottontown too. 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I think you have to be at the 5 inch line to have at least a 20% chance of a dusting - 1". 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Though cranky getting some pushback whompin' for his Fv3 hating. 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Speaking of model verification:

This also has the link for verification data I've been looking for for a while. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Good old Fv3. Tryin to make '93 great again. 

 

[weathertree4u]

11 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I saw what happened, after I looked westward on my map. Fv3 with those new microphysics opened the portal again:

 

Ice Scrabblers trying to bring it to Cottontown too. 

 

Lots of fantasy maps this winter! Wish I had more time to jump in here, teaching two accounting courses online and working full time relegates me to mainly lurking now days!

[weathertree4u]

16 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Good old Fv3. Tryin to make '93 great again. 

 

Ahh, that was the storm. We largely got missed by the big snow of that system. I can honestly say though, that was the only time I ever saw it snow in sheets for hours. I think we got three or four inches, nothing compared to you guys in East TN!

[Greyhound]

Just gonna leave this here:


https://www-sciencealert-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.sciencealert.com/scientists-just-pushed-the-limits-on-how-far-ahead-we-can-really-predict-the-weather/amp?amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sciencealert.com%2Fscientists-just-pushed-the-limits-on-how-far-ahead-we-can-really-predict-the-weather

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[Holston_River_Rambler]

@weathertree4u

In response to the flooding thread mention of the models this winter:

It's not you. I've never seen anything like this winter on models. Yeah, we've had bad winters before and yeah we've had poor modeling in the past. But this winter takes the cake. I could have understood it if models showed a bad future pattern every once in a while, but it has seemed, until very recently, that every 8 - 15+ day period has held some sort of epic pattern change. Even the bad pattern in the Pac advertised in mid Dec. looked to break down after the SSW. You'd think there'd be a blip for a future bad pattern every once in a while, lol. 

Don't get me wrong. Any given current pattern has looked bad at times, but there always seemed to be some hope just around the corner. And with all the experts giving all these reasons why it would change, it looked like it would. 

I could understand individuals' long range forecasts busting, but to also have models constantly throw out pattern change after pattern change, only to have it never materialize, that is something else. If one were to ascribe anthropomorphic qualities to models, you'd almost think they were wishcasting. 

Now, there will be no pattern change through the end of Feb. Not saying there can't be a magical freak storm, or higher elevations can't get something, but for most of us, it's a done deal because it's in the past; Dec - Feb, above normal. I do still have some hope if we can get the MJO into 2 - 3. but even then, its a nice bookend storm, not the pattern continually advertised by models. 

I did enjoy my revenge of the strat. storm, but that one had a wicked cut off across metro Knoxville. Really a beautiful snow day the closer to the mts, you got in Sevier and Blount counties. I think Reb might have gotten 4 -5 inches out of that one. Anderson county on the other hand was sending angry tweet to WBIR about the promised snow that never happened. 

 

 

[John1122]

The only decent thing about this winter is that I'm going to come in about 600 dollars cheaper on heating costs vs last year.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Happy times:

  

[nrgjeff]

Model fantasy pattern change is like Groundhog Day, the movie. Nightmare never ends.

In other news, Tennessee is looking fwd to getting Kentucky back in Knoxville. Surely the Vols will shoot better at home. It's almost a Law of Science, but we'll call it the home court advantage theory for now. Believe me that game will be closer no matter what happens.

[Carvers Gap]

I think Tennessee's biggest problem is that they had not played a championship caliber basketball team in some time.  That is a different pace of play and a different type of physicality.  They just didn't look ready for that Saturday for whatever reason.  The Vols have had trouble with perimeter defense during conference play, but they had not played a team that play both quality inside and outside ball...and was also capable of stopping Williams who could answer at will.  UK has length inside and shooters who can make you pay.  There are probably 5-6 teams in the country with that type of talented, balanced line-up - meaning there are probably only 5-6 teams that can put UT in recover mode like UK did.  LSU might be another.  UK is young, and I wonder if they are just now getting mature enough to where they can bring it each night at that level.  That was Final Four level play by the Wildcats.  I think UT is still very capable of making the Elite 8.  But getting to the Final Four is going to require beating a team that is balanced.  Duke, UK, Louisville to some extent, Gonzaga, UNC, Virginia(though for whatever reason they seem beatable) are all teams that are very balanced.  If UT can't figure out how to stop the dribble/penetrate three ball where their man2man is spread out...it will be tough to get to the Final Four.  Also, the thing that nags me a bit is that the tourney often features great guard play in the early rounds, and those guys can shoot the 3 ball which is UT's weakness.  I do think it will take a very good team to beat the Vols in the NCAA.  The biggest problem right now is if UT loses to LSU Saturday, they could easily be in the same side of the bracket w the UK in the SEC tourney which is just a match-up nightmare right now w Alexander not playing his best inside.  If Zion for Duke plays at a high level, not sure who beats Duke in the tourney?  If UT can somehow get back to playing complete games on defense(remember those ugly wins last year that were defensive grinders?) and offense w Bowden/Bone/Turner working the perimeter, UT can be as balanced as the aforementioned teams.  At 23-2, not a shabby season at all.  It has truly been a special year so far.  UT has only lost one game as a road team and lost none at home.  They have one neutral court loss.  I think UT is at least a two seed when all is said and done with the potential to be higher.  I do like the fact that they are a veteran team who will work to get any weaknesses fixed.

[John1122]

Not worried a bit about the UK game. They played out of their mind, they got away with brutality as far as uncalled fouls, not getting a foul shot in the entire first half of that karate match was ridiculous. It's also a huge part of Tennessee's game to get opponents in foul trouble and get to the line. That doesn't work when the Rupp whistle is in effect. 

Tennessee has great guards, great interior play and great experience, a nearly perfect combination for post season success. Sometimes you lose a game you should win in basketball, and that happened Saturday. 

[John1122]

I saw where Vegas got 2 inches of snow this morning, been more than 10 years since they got accumulating snow. It's a strange world when Vegas, New Orleans, Houston, Savannah, etc have been more favorable for snow the past 3 winters than the Cumberland Plateau in Tennessee.

[weathertree4u]

3 hours ago, John1122 said:

I saw where Vegas got 2 inches of snow this morning, been more than 10 years since they got accumulating snow. It's a strange world when Vegas, New Orleans, Houston, Savannah, etc have been more favorable for snow the past 3 winters than the Cumberland Plateau in Tennessee.

Or when there is weather spoken of in a weather forum! I agree though, strange, been several years since we have had a good snow in Middle TN!

[Carvers Gap]

I definitely think the Vols are still a great basketball team, but they did not handle UK well on Saturday.  Our perimeter defenses nearly cost us games w Bama, Vandy, and Florida(at G-ville).  Barnes even said after the UK game that rebounding troubles have been a growing issue as well.  It was definitely just one game, but it was their first game against a quality opponent since December.  They had not been forced to elevate their play recently.  I do agree that officiating was suspect, but that did not cause us to lose by 17.  Now, how we do during the next couple of weeks is important.  I don't expect us to win all of them(much tougher conference schedule upcoming), but I do hope to see us re-elevate our level of play.  I think most of us expected 2-3 losses in conference play.  What I think most did not expect was this team not being able to handle Rupp or the UK team.  UK did play a great game for sure, but I think one could argue that we panicked a bit w quick shots and not enough passing.  I think Barnes even said(slightly paraphrased), "Do I even know this team?"   Additionally, he told them if they play like that down the stretch they won't win many more games.  I definitely would not want to be Vandy tonight.  LSU is an obviously huge game on Saturday.  That game will tip at 11:00 AM central...early.  If we lose that game, LSU would have to lose two more games and UT not lose again.  Need to get that game for tourney seeding purposes.  If we want a one seed, I think we need to make the finals of the SEC tourney.  I would rather play UK or LSU...but not both on consecutive nights...and then have to play and NCAA tourney game four days later.  I think UT will rise to the occasion down the stretch...but they need to fix some recent bad habits.