WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Tim Buckley: For those asking, the ground temperature in Greensboro is 41°. It will be a non-factor this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 I can speak from a couple instances up my way this year when CAD was overdone so just a word of caution when investing all your feelings in a final solution, with one especially being close to 60 hours away. I had a winter storm warning this year for a 1/2” of ice. Cloud cover moved in and we were able to get down to 32 but by that time it was already raining heavily. They were forecasting 30. Meanwhile @Disc over about 20 miles to my west was 29 and heavy ice in the mountains of Blacksburg. Just play the cards you are dealt. There will be plenty more this year for all of us worst case scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 All GEFS members in general agreement.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Tim Buckley: For those asking, the ground temperature in Greensboro is 41°. It will be a non-factor this weekend. We had a nice hard freeze this morning here with a low of 23 and a heavy frost. Soil and sun are two non-issues for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Chris BruinVerified account @TWCChrisBruin 15m15 minutes ago Latest runs of snowfall forecast for a few cities. Still some differences but SNOW LIKELY and A LOT OF IT! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 very concerning that the 6z nam has already switched from the initial snow from yesterday's run for clt to immediate rain and sleet. i have seen this happen before and would not shock me to see the warm nose trend warmer as we get closer to saturday night. not good signs at all if you love snow. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, Wow said: All GEFS members in general agreement.. I’ve never seen anything like this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, Poimen said: We had a nice hard freeze this morning here with a low of 23 and a heavy frost. Soil and sun are two non-issues for this event. Yep, one of the reasons yo savor early December snowfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 17 minutes ago, Rainforrest said: Looks about right for my location. Hoping for more though. I have never seen GSP put out a map this bullish 3-4 days out. Heck, I'm not even sure the wave has been properly sampled yet. Rest assured this is a warning shot. These totals WILL go up for the mountains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 I can’t believe I woke up and the storm is still showing up - even more so that there is still quite a bit of consistency lol. The thing that strikes me for ne ga and the upstate, st least, is the snow amounts with a CAD. We may get a front end thump of snow but for the most part CADs here are not deep enough for snow but mostly ice. Even if we do get snow most big storms of this set up usually mix with or change to sleet then freezing rain. If the “second” shot moves through as snow on top of ice that would be a sight to see for sure 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: very concerning that the 6z nam has already switched from the initial snow from yesterday's run for clt to immediate rain and sleet. i have seen this happen before and would not shock me to see the warm nose trend warmer as we get closer to saturday night. not good signs at all if you love snow. I think 485 is going to be the dividing line, again. Maybe up to 73. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: very concerning that the 6z nam has already switched from the initial snow from yesterday's run for clt to immediate rain and sleet. i have seen this happen before and would not shock me to see the warm nose trend warmer as we get closer to saturday night. not good signs at all if you love snow. But overall it's more of a monster winter storm look because of the colder surface temps. Major ice storm down through central SC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 10 minutes ago, Wow said: All GEFS members in general agreement.. Game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 It been is just hard for me to ignore the consistency and agreement with the various models. I know what has happened in the past, but we also don't usually have this much consistency and agreement with the models. They would all have to be wrong or start to do a complete 180 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: I have never seen GSP put out a map this bullish 3-4 days out. Heck, I'm not even sure the wave has been properly sampled yet. Rest assured this is a warning shot. These totals WILL go up for the mountains. I have seen it a few times but not often. Nice thing is they aren’t pressured in a news room environment so they can put out what models show (conservatively still). Difference here is normally we don’t have so much model agreement so early. The storms normally gone until the day before. GSP is always on top of storms though and not afraid to show the possibilities. Always big kudos to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: very concerning that the 6z nam has already switched from the initial snow from yesterday's run for clt to immediate rain and sleet. i have seen this happen before and would not shock me to see the warm nose trend warmer as we get closer to saturday night. not good signs at all if you love snow. how far north does the warm nose get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 My thoughts this morning: To much focus on snow maps, not enough focus on who is going to be with out power for 2 weeks because of an inch of ice accrual. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ballnutncwx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Question been lurking for about 4 years or so, when they say North of 85 where does that start? 85 run North - South but around the Gastonia area it runs a little West - East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernVAwx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Canadian model doing its thing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Having the NAM go slightly warmer this morning, is and should be concerning, especially for peeps already in the edge of frozen, like me! And GFSv3 slightly warmer! Not good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: It been is just hard for me to ignore the consistency and agreement with the various models. I know what has happened in the past, but we also don't usually have this ml uch consistency and agreement with the models. They would all have to be wrong or start to do a complete 180 now. Its a good point Brick. However; remember that the models are forecast *guidance* and not an absolute representation of reality. And we have seen them be very wrong many times, as recently as last year. I hope we both get a foot though! Cheers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: It been is just hard for me to ignore the consistency and agreement with the various models. I know what has happened in the past, but we also don't usually have this much consistency and agreement with the models. They would all have to be wrong or start to do a complete 180 now. They would have to do a complete 180 for what to happen? All rain? Not sure anyone is calling for that. It’s hard for me to believe that you have been following the weather for as long as you have and have as much faith in 5 day snow maps as you do, regardless of their consistency. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: It been is just hard for me to ignore the consistency and agreement with the various models. I know what has happened in the past, but we also don't usually have this much consistency and agreement with the models. They would all have to be wrong or start to do a complete 180 now. models will be consistently wrong if they don't have the warm nose modeled correctly. we have seen this time and time again. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Checking in from Baltimore, gave up on this up here 24 hours ago. I have in-laws in Brevard and a daughter in Greensboro, so will live it through them and you all. Good luck, the ensemble agreement for your area is a stunner. The big ones often lock in early, and it appears to have been that way for you guys. Hope you all get across the finish line with it. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 The mix line will be closer to hwy 64 imho guna be a sleetfest for elevations below 2500 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, North Balti Zen said: Checking in from Baltimore, gave up on this up here 24 hours ago. I have in-laws in Brevard and a daughter in Greensboro, so will live it through them and you all. Good luck, the ensemble agreement for your area is a stunner. The big ones often lock in early, and it appears to have been that way for you guys. Hope you all get across the finish line with it. Thanks! As you can tell, it's a nervous forum down here as we have had the rug pulled out from under us too many times! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 06z CMC trended the mix line further south in to the upstate Sunday morning compared to 00z. Still has mostly sleet/zr all the way to the nc/va border though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: They would have to do a complete 180 for what to happen? All rain? Not sure anyone is calling for that. It’s hard for me to believe that you have been following the weather for as long as you have and have as much faith in 5 day snow maps as you do, regardless of their consistency. 3 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: models will be consistently wrong if they don't have the warm nose modeled correctly. we have seen this time and time again. Okay, so where is the info that shows they could be wrong? What is the other info that RAH is basing their forecast on right now? What other data are they using besides the fact storms as big as the models are showing are rare here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackWxMan Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 GSP busting big on this one. CLT is not getting a foot. It’s Thursday and 12in on Sunday/Monday is being tossed around ?!? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, PackWxMan said: GSP busting big on this one. CLT is not getting a foot. It’s Thursday and 12in on Sunday/Monday is being tossed around ?!? Plenty of time to adjust that forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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