YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, griteater said: Yes Lord have mercy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Agreed...it's been super juicy...but all things considered...it's gonna be some great totals up here and we had about 4 with today's thump of snowI was making a jab at a guy that use to be on the forums several years “WilkesboroDude” that got the boot for being a drama queen and he’s known for saying the skies hadn’t healed enough to get a lot of precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 00Z UKMET 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, Cornsnow said: Most storms are are right? Or it seems that way. I have some friends up on the top side of Mooresville.... up above HWY 150. Think it would be better up that way for snow? I mean, you hear that a lot, regarding Charlotte being on the transition line, but we've had plenty of good snows over the years here as well...but no doubt it's more difficult here. For this storm, I just think we are going to continue to see changes, so it's still a long ways out to really get into the specifics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: I mean, you hear that a lot, regarding Charlotte being on the transition line, but we've had plenty of good snows over the years here as well...but no doubt it's more difficult here. For this storm, I just think we are going to continue to see changes, so it's still a long ways out to really get into the specifics Yep. Also a lot of moving parts. The good news is the big models are still holding serve so people should be using that as a guide not an exact map. The players we want are there, now it's just going to be how they all align. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CyclonicFury Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 This is slowly trending from what appeared to be a near miss to a potential major snowfall for RDU. But will a warm nose appear is the question. The latest FV3 keeps temperatures below freezing here all day Sunday with no changeover to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, griteater said: I mean, you hear that a lot, regarding Charlotte being on the transition line, but we've had plenty of good snows over the years here as well...but no doubt it's more difficult here. For this storm, I just think we are going to continue to see changes, so it's still a long ways out to really get into the specifics Grit, I CANNOT REMEMBER the last time we scored BIG with a Miller A type system here in the Charlotte region. I mean...we have seen the run of the mill 3-6" snows, with ip and zr mixed in, but I cannot remember when we have been bullseyed with more than a few inches. I guess this is more of a question on if we have any records where we have really done well with a Miller A setup? I am not being a weenie (well...maybe a little. HAHAHA) as this is sincerely more of a curious question, rather than "I am worried". IT SUCKS because seeing all these ONCE IN A LIFETIME MODEL RUNS that show EPIC SNOWS FOR MY BACKYARD is tough to hold my excitement in check. If anyone tells otherwise, they are lying. LMAO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 If the surface low turns up the coast like most of them do, then yes there will be a warm nose well inland. If the slp is a slider, mainly moving east like has been modeled now for many days and the CAD is established, then there will likely be no substantial warm nose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 GEFS mean snowfall looks a bit more like the 12z with snow totals pushing a bit further south in the Upstate and N Ga. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said: Grit, I CANNOT REMEMBER the last time we scored BIG with a Miller A type system here in the Charlotte region. I mean...we have seen the run of the mill 3-6" snows, with ip and zr mixed in, but I cannot remember when we have been bullseyed with more than a few inches. I guess this is more of a question on if we have any records where we have really done well with a Miller A setup? I am not being a weenie (well...maybe a little. HAHAHA) as this is sincerely more of a curious question, rather than "I am worried". IT SUCKS because seeing all these ONCE IN A LIFETIME MODEL RUNS that show EPIC SNOWS FOR MY BACKYARD is tough to hold my excitement in check. If anyone tells otherwise, they are lying. LMAO! This to me isn't your standard Miller A it's taking that track but it's more a big overrunning event taking a Miller A track...but maybe I'm wrong with that. If this follows the models like GSP said it's historic. That's the thing about making history, there's nothing to really compare it to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, CyclonicFury said: This is slowly trending from what appeared to be a near miss to a potential major snowfall for RDU. But will a warm nose appear is the question. The latest FV3 keeps temperatures below freezing here all day Sunday with no changeover to rain. Today was a good day on the models for RDU but like Grit, I believe there will be more changes to come. We have a lot more model runs to go...LOL! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, burgertime said: Yep. Also a lot of moving parts. The good news is the big models are still holding serve so people should be using that as a guide not an exact map. The players we want are there, now it's just going to be how they all align. IceBURG, I posted a question earlier, which I am wondering what your take would be. Do you recall or have seen where the Charlotte area has TRULY cashed in on a Miller A type of storm? I mean...sure, we have received the 3-6" with ip and zr also mixed from these systems, but have we TRULY scored lets say...12-16" (for example) from these types of setups? Or has anyone else in the carolinas scored (excluding the Mountain Regions)? Thanks and oh...I tagged you on FB about the Cantore Curse. He has touched down in CLT. I HOPE he is not planning on staying here. UGH...LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, burgertime said: This to me isn't your standard Miller A it's taking that track but it's more a big overrunning event taking a Miller A track...but maybe I'm wrong with that. If this follows the models like GSP said it's historic. That's the thing about making history, there's nothing to really compare it to. Thanks man! Wow...you answered my question to Grit and I had decided to pose this question to you as well. Pretty cool. Anyways, what do you think about the question on if we have ever scored BIG on any Miller A's (excluding the Mountains). I used the 12"+ as criteria. I am only asking, so I can see if we can find any data to correlate to this system. Thanks again man. I sure wish you were here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said: IceBURG, I posted a question earlier, which I am wondering what your take would be. Do you recall or have seen where the Charlotte area has TRULY cashed in on a Miller A type of storm? I mean...sure, we have received the 3-6" with ip and zr also mixed from these systems, but have we TRULY scored lets say...12-16" (for example) from these types of setups? Or has anyone else in the carolinas scored (excluding the Mountain Regions)? Thanks and oh...I tagged you on FB about the Cantore Curse. He has touched down in CLT. I HOPE he is not planning on staying here. UGH...LMAO I answered above. We do have somethings going against. Climo being one...but like alot of storms in your neck of the woods you gotta look at the models and roll the dice. The setup is what you want. Lots of moisture and a good enough cold air feed. Like I said this feels less like a true Miller A where it really bombs out on the coast and more like a slider that takes a Miller A track...again if that makes sense. Maybe I'm wrong though about that assessment. I still am a bit sceptical on totals but even if you slice them in half it's still a significant possibly historic storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Euro is rolling.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Anybody got GEFS pics? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Out to 42 on the Euro...pretty much holding serve with 12z. A few subtle changes but nothing to write home about yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Thru 57 on the Euro I see a little more push southwest with the heights over Ohio/Indiana and a little less amp with the southern wave comparing this to the 12z run...so my guess is that it won't climb north this run...we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 72 Faster and flatter if I had to guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 @72 things are starting to take shape. A few changes but to my eye it looks a tad colder than the 00z run. Low is closed off in Texas...this doesn't look quite as wet in LA but again not so much of a difference it's alarming or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 @81 all hell is breaking out in NC. Def. colder this run as the Euro is picking up on that CAD signature. Verbatim it's ice across the much of the region outside of I-40 west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Between 87 and 96 model goes BOOM! This is a crush job especially for WNC and TN really gets pounded. Colder than the 00z run. I would be getting the supplies ready. Also someone is going to get a BAD BAD BAD ice storm out of this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seether Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Any screen shots burger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 It isn't nearly as tasty as the 00z run on the backside though. Temps go up and we get hit with rain outside of the mountains...again verbatim. This is a tricky little run this go round. I think it's also seeing the WAA coming now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 If you are in to southern sliders, the Euro delivers. Precip shield was a little south this run...and the big northern stream wave is diving in hard now on the backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Look where the red dot is 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCGamecock Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 How about that....upstate Mack special . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, griteater said: If you are in to southern sliders, the Euro delivers. Precip shield was a little south this run...and the big northern stream wave is diving in hard now on the backside I'm a little confused how TN doesn't get more out of this system with the look on the Euro tonight. I figured they would be the max on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, burgertime said: Look where the red dot is It is tough for me to zoom in, but is Charlotte/Belmont under the dark blue blob (15-18") range? Loving the red dot over Macs crib! LOL! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Here's how the precip looks....Also is anyone using the 18z and 6z runs of the Euro? Just wondering how they stack up to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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