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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

You would think the low off the coast with the northern stream dropping in wouldn’t make the low rocket east like that. 

If it dropped in earlier it would keep the low closer to the coast....it's a little late, so it goes over to showery precip on the backside.  Northern stream really dropping in strong, late, this run, like FV3 18z

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4 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

Snow line further east in NC with slightly cooler temps.  Strong NEly flow at 925, easterly at 950 and weakly southerly at 700. Below freezing throughout the column at RDU.

 

1 minute ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

GFS is warmer this run. Let us see if it continues, like it typically does. 

So, cooler or warmer?

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3 minutes ago, griteater said:

yeah wow, the GFS is looking much like the FV3 on the backside wave dropping in...who knows how strong that precip will be, but an impressive evolution this far south

 

1 minute ago, Lookout said:

yeah precip redevelops with it too...

That could be a very very interesting development if it were to somehow get a hold of the southern stream low a little earlier. I still think it’s a very real possibility at this juncture. 

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Just now, Wow said:

GFS definitely trending toward its successor WRT the upper level low swing through early Tuesday

not very often you see an upper low diving southeast into georgia...drops another 0.25 to 0.40 of mostly snow too. hopefully the fv3 is even more bullish. 

0z canadian does the same thing btw. 

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I really really hope this storm is as great as many models show, but a word of caution, especially for those around 85 in NC.  Enjoy the model runs but don’t live and die by them.  Read the thread below and temper expectations.  Better to be pleasantly surprised if the totals are close.  

The pic and thread are from the Jan 17 storm that was a big bust.  Not saying these storms are the same, just that the cutoff line and WAA are notoriously hard for models to get right.  Union county was looking great the morning before the storm and we got shafted.  QPF was also way overdone by the models  

Its easy for most of us and myself to get wrapped up in these models but this is a tough area even for short range models to get right.

Hopefully this doesn’t repeat itself with this storm though!!

 

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1 minute ago, Lookout said:

not very often you see an upper low diving southeast into georgia...drops another 0.25 to 0.40 of mostly snow too. hopefully the fv3 is even more bullish. 

0z canadian does the same thing btw. 

Yep, and I've always noticed the UL progression most always trends stronger at the last minute with a cutoff with this big snowstorms.. always the last piece of the puzzle

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2 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Big improvement on Canadian. Makes the Miller B transfer after more eastward and less northward progression of the low. Allows CAD to establish deeper south.  

The Canadian is a snow bomb for northern NC and a lot of VA wow!! Hr 90 it would be ripping absolute fatties. 

Close to 3 ft of snow northern foothills lmao!

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