DopplerWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 wow, fv3 even colder. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 @SENCback side flurries are back side flurries... I will be happy with those because I can say I was part of the storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, ILMRoss said: 18z FV3 already looking like a pure weenie run Look, if we find out who’s running the weather machine, I want to send them a grand or two. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Kuchera Maps this run have a 25” lollipop right over Gastonia this run Wow! Just wow man! I fear though, 74. Corridor might be a dividing line... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, UNCCmetgrad said: One thing to remember is that front end thump of snow will only serve to lock in CAD. Thats why I'm particularly worried about icing in areas where that warm nose reaches and don't quite buy some of the modeling that wants to scour out the subfreezing temperatures Sunday . It’s had to get the air to warm when it’s cold and cloudy and snow on the ground. To give you and example last Sunday while many on here were enjoying a mild day in 60’s we in Surry County were stuck at 50-52 with fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Something definitely went wrong with the 18z GFS at 108 hours and beyond. It is not loading on weatherbell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Models just keep getting better and better. Really hope the rug is not going to be pulled out from under us. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: wow, fv3 even colder. It’s a beaut Clark. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Kuchera Maps this run have a 25” lollipop right over Gastonia this run The Gastonia/Shelby area normally does really well in these situations. They’re in the perfect location for CAD as far south as they are. When it retreats around here and CLT, it normally goes west and leaves them in the CAD before retreating north. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re one of the big winners from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Speaking of Brad P, he is doing a live stream some time around 8:30. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Look, if we find out who’s running the weather machine, I want to send them a grand or two. Dear @SantaClause ,, Can I , (and some of Us southern folks), get a 75~125 mile shift SOUTH by SouthWest with the LP? We not asking for much.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 a low is nearing the baja area throwing moisture north and east reaching almost to oklahoma and cold air is dropping south north of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: It’s had to get the air to warm when it’s cold and cloudy and snow on the ground. To give you and example last Sunday while many on here were enjoying a mild day in 60’s we in Surry County were stuck at 50-52 with fog. He’s referring to the WAA. 2M temps could easily get locked in and support sleet or freezing rain bc the upper air won’t support snow anymore. Always a concern in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 18z all snow (almost) for clt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: wow, fv3 even colder. What’s that pink over my house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 R.I.P. to the entire 18z GFS suite, old and new. But damn if the FV3 isn't lookin' like a snack! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstatescweather Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 35 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Our local met , CJ , kept harping on 85 and N getting all the snow, while the modeled sim radar behind him, had snow line down to greenwood, for like 8 hours! SMDH Noticed that also he is being very careful bc next line he said is this line could shift and give people in Mauldin simpsonville fountain inn 3 to 6 but he got burned severely couple years back and he will not budge off that 85 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: wow, fv3 even colder. Colder and snowier much further east.....now if it will just go ENE from there instead of reforming off the NC coast we would be looking at a bigger event for central and eastern NC but that little jump north kills us..... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 28 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: 18z GFS appears to have suffered an anomaly after 108hrs. RAH shut it down after it dropped more than 1-2" in the Triad. 6 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, downeastnc said: Colder and snowier much further east.....now if it will just go ENE from there instead of reforming off the NC coast we would be looking at a bigger event for central and eastern NC but that little jump north kills us..... MORRRRRR SOUTH @downeastnc 125 miles! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: Colder and snowier much further east.....now if it will just go ENE from there instead of reforming off the NC coast we would be looking at a bigger event for central and eastern NC but that little jump north kills us..... It might go ENE for one more frame. I guess we'll never know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 The FV3 skipping frames is driving me insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 FV3 gfs ran fine on NCEP site. QPF looks pretty good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 While waiting for the FV3 beyond 90, here's a trend loop. I love watching models discover CAD. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 GSP going with 6-8 for Charlotte, 8-12 for Gastonia, possibly over a foot if you’re n&W of the city 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Getting better and better for us Cad areas! Looking forward to some juicy Nam runs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Wow said: While waiting for the FV3 beyond 90, here's a trend loop. I love watching models discover CAD. I think we’ve potentially found your foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I took a quick glance at the FV 3 on the NCEP site and it looked cold for the NC Piedmont for the duration of the storm, plus it looked like it had the back side deform band on Monday too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: I think we’ve potentially found your foot. With this amount of precip forecast, it's looking good right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 While we wait for the GFS to process all of this snow I know many were worried about the Canadian with its more amped warmer solution. Its ensembles are much more enthused. Mean showed surface low going from New Orleans to Tallahassee then off the coast between Jacksonville, FL, and Savannah to about 100mi SE of Wilmington. 850 low moves from Northern MS to Northern Ga, then off the coast between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington. Here is the mean snowfall and this is using the Kuchera method. Looks a lot better than Operational. 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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