HKY1894 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 FV3 definitely didn’t go north at 18z can’t tell about QPF but it’s a good run looks like . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, GreensboroWx said: Maybe a touch less QPF but I'm only seeing the maps through Monday at 12z....still have the upper low to go by on Monday Do you still that track mid-MS to off ILM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: How is the sounding for RDU on the 18z? Should I ask? Looks like almost all snow this time. Colder and farther south has been the theme today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Regarding "Our" upcoming "Storm".. For those interested, like @tramadoc, this "storm very well could put WILM over 100" of precip for the year.. Looking for "backside Flurries" @Orangeburgwx for us, No accumulations then back to the 50's & 60"s.. (UNLESS).. MOR Suppression! KILM NWS AFD for those interested, this Disco could "help" with Forecasts upstate.. Storm system will affect the local area this weekend with a potential for periods of moderate to heavy rain Saturday through Sunday, and lingering through Monday. Right now we are looking for 2 to 3 inches total over the weekend, bringing our rainfall total only couple of inches shy of breaking the 100 inch mark for Wilm. High pressure will build down into the Carolinas from the north as potent low pressure system tracks across the Gulf Coast this weekend. Winds will increase through the low levels on Saturday, leading to increasing isentropic lift heading through the weekend with rain spreading northward into the Carolinas on Sat. Expect periods of potentially moderate to heavier rain Sat night into sun as the low lifts up along the southeast coast. Any mixed pcp should remain farther west and north in the cooler air through the weekend. The current track tracks the low right up along the southeast, remaining just offshore, bringing the center just off the Cape Fear coast Sun night. As it lifts off to the northeast Mon night, shortwave energy will dig down clouds and pcp will wrap around the back end of the system as it lifts off to the northeast Mon night. This will coincide with decent cold air advection and temps should be borderline mainly west of I-95 for some mixed pcp. Therefore some flurries or snow showers are not out of the question overnight Mon. Temps will be moderated by clouds and pcp through much of the period with overnight lows generally in the mid 30s to around 40 and day time highs in the 50s. The sharpest temp gradient should occur Sunday as the low tracks up the coast pulling shallow cool air down from the north inland and pushing warmer and moister air onto the coast. Temps may not reach past the 40s west of I-95 on sun, with temps closer to 60 along the coast. Clearing should occur through tues in deep cool and dry northerly flow on the back end of system. That said & posted, I wish all the Upstate Folks the Best of Luck, Post a lot of Pictures! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: Do you still that track mid-MS to off ILM? Yes, 850 low tracks from northern MS through AL, GA and off of ILM....pretty ideal for NC piedmont 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, UNCCmetgrad said: Don't get a chance to drop by too often but saw some ask about Euro snow maps from F5Weather. Definitely less with the totals further east where there will likely be more mixing issues. Also am attaching UKMET snow which is a more robust with the snow further east. Also UKMET is a severe ice storm for NEGA, Upstate of SC, and NC in the southern and eastern piedmont. Show over 1" of qpf falling as FZRA in Charlotte. If I remember right the UKMET runs warm on wedge events at this range so odds are you can pull that ice further southwest if that solution verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Thanks guys 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 18z NAM vs GFS @84hrs, outside of the NAMs useful range I know, but the preferred H5 look is a no brainier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Our local met , CJ , kept harping on 85 and N getting all the snow, while the modeled sim radar behind him, had snow line down to greenwood, for like 8 hours! SMDH 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Greg Fishel just said either a rain or snow event. He isn't predicting a lot of mixing or in between. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Greg Fishel just said either a rain or snow event. He isn't predicting a lot of mixing or in between. i wonder what he's seeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozmaea Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Our local met , CJ , kept harping on 85 and N getting all the snow, while the modeled sim radar behind him, had snow line down to greenwood, for like 8 hours! SMDHHe said below 85 would still get some on the back side, he has those areas around 30% chance of accumulating snowSent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I know this is banter ... but isn't this the time we start hearing about "ground temps won't support accumulation"? Just trying to tick off my winters storm bingo card. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I'm just really confused right now. I don't know where the cliff is at the moment, much less jumping from it. I'm asking pedestrians passing by if they know where it is, but they just keep walking....lol. GSP thinks it's a Miller A (Awesome!), Raleigh says it's going to "evolve" into a Miller B (boo!). All major models and ensembles have a crushing winter storm for north of CLT. However models are showing very marginal 850s and surface temps, and monster WAA lurking behind the curtain!. During the day Sunday looks like it can go to almost 40 degrees. Just going to keep riding this emotional roller coaster up and down...from what I can see though, the trends have been good for many on the board today. I think? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Our local met , CJ , kept harping on 85 and N getting all the snow, while the modeled sim radar behind him, had snow line down to greenwood, for like 8 hours! SMDH He usually hypes and fails miserably. I guess he's tired of getting burned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Wow. Not as conservative as I was expecting. Brad Ps 1st call map. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Greg Fishel just said either a rain or snow event. He isn't predicting a lot of mixing or in between. I've heard a lot of people (mets) say that over the years. And then we mix. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Regan said: Wow. Not as conservative as I was expecting. Brad Ps 1st call map. That's his snow meter. Not accumulation map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said: i wonder what he's seeing He is going with a Miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Regan said: Wow. Not as conservative as I was expecting. Brad Ps 1st call map. That is his snow meter map not his accumulations forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrown85 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Our local met , CJ , kept harping on 85 and N getting all the snow, while the modeled sim radar behind him, had snow line down to greenwood, for like 8 hours! SMDH I wonder if he's being a bit more conservative since he's been burned by over hyping a storm before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 18z GFS appears to have suffered an anomaly after 108hrs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: He usually hypes and fails miserably. I guess he's tired of getting burned. Chris and John do a great job for our area. Quite frankly, I’m tired of those that say they hype too much and fail often. We are lucky to have these two in the Upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, Regan said: Wow. Not as conservative as I was expecting. Brad Ps 1st call map. Can we trade Chris Justus for Brad P? I understand why CJ goes with the “North of 85” call. He’s been burnt a lot already and he’s a young guy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, gman said: Chris and John do a great job for our area. Quite frankly, I’m tired of those that say they hype too much and fail often. We re lucky to have these two in the Upstate. They live and die by the 85 cutoff and 98% of the time , it’s right. But sometimes storms break the mold! And he did show 1-3” could happen S of 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I’m aware that’s not an accumulation forecast. I’m still shocked a tv met is saying number that high period. Ours sure isn’t here. And Brad isn’t an alarmist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 One thing to remember is that front end thump of snow will only serve to lock in CAD. Thats why I'm particularly worried about icing in areas where that warm nose reaches and don't quite buy some of the modeling that wants to scour out the subfreezing temperatures Sunday . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 GFS before it got stuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 18z FV3 already looking like a pure weenie run 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Kuchera Maps this run have a 25” lollipop right over Gastonia this run 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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