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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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1 minute ago, Wow said:

Overall similar setup just further N with the sfc low .. better precip shield extending from NC to KS

Looks like s/w trended a little stronger and north. Maybe the reasoning behind mixing even up my way at the onset due to warmer mid levels infiltrating resulting from less confluence. I really believe until the Euro has the support it’s the outlier as of right now.

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

The wave closes off beautifully again on the GFS...it's a slow crawler with extended snows in E TN, upstate, and central-west NC

The confluence isn’t as pronounced this run up north and should’ve allowed the storm to come a little further north this go around, albeit it is the 18z gfs we are talking about.

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6 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Looks like s/w trended a little stronger and north. Maybe the reasoning behind mixing even up my way at the onset due to warmer mid levels infiltrating resulting from less confluence. I really believe until the Euro has the support it’s the outlier as of right now.

I'm not saying it won't come way north eventually, but the euro is supported by the ukmet and jma right now.  The GFS and CMC are really the only models on the more amped side of guidance right now. 

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1 minute ago, WidreMann said:

This is as silly as the Euro, albeit in a different direction. The number 18 may be relevant for RDU, but I guarantee you it won't be with regards to inches of snow fallen.

Come on Widre.  You know better than to take these numbers literally.  Cut them in half and still don't expect that much.  Bottom line is we may get a little sleet/snow in theTriangle if this keeps up.  Maybe more.

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1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

Come on Widre.  You know better than to take these numbers literally.  Cut them in half and still don't expect that much.  Bottom line is we may get a little sleet/snow in theTriangle if this keeps up.  Maybe more.

I'm sure we'll get something. The pattern is right. But I think wintry mix to rain is the most likely call at this point. Or light snow (if it ends up suppressed).

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