Orangeburgwx Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. A strong storm system will cross the Southeast U.S. this weekend, as cold surface high pressure extends in from the north. Widespread rain is expected and there is the potential for some wintry precipitation over the northern and central Midlands of South Carolina. Oh damn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Icon is a crush job for foothills and SVA on 18z. Has low sliding by MYR and up toward outer banks. Beginning to think from a consensus standpoint outer banks or just a little south from there will be the track. The Gulf Stream debate could be had for where the lows like to travel when they get to that area. It also has the weakest high i've seen today (1034) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I like WYFF’s new snowfall map: 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, jburns said: Here's a reason for the difference in GSP and RAL. RAL The low subsequently will move across the Southeast Coastal Plain in a Miller A-type configuration. GSP low tracks along the Gulf coast/S GA/FL Panhandle, likely evolving into a Miller B configuration What in the...??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Just had a chance to look at the 18z NAM. If the CAD and dew points are correct, this will be a major storm not just for the western/central folks but for folks into the coastal plain. I gave up on this a while back. I've got nothing to lose its gonna rain unless the storm trends colder. I'm keeping one eye on it but really rooting for you guys out west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, lilj4425 said: What in the...??? Maybe a 3 way call with proper introductions? Do these guys even know each other? Maybe an annual holiday party or something? Good grief! 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, jburns said: Here's a reason for the difference in GSP and RAL. GSP The low subsequently will move across the Southeast Coastal Plain in a Miller A-type configuration. RAL low tracks along the Gulf coast/S GA/FL Panhandle, likely evolving into a Miller B configuration Sorry, I originally had that backwards. Fixed now. Remember back when neighboring offices would coordinate? Sheesh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, lilj4425 said: What in the...??? It's hard to come up with a menu when you don't know if it's beef or pork. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: And I have heard numerous times the CAD is often stronger and harder to erode than the models show. I've also seen numerous times where bitter cold CAD was forecast, then the dreaded warm nose came out of nowhere and a sleetfest ensued for the duration of the event 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Maybe a 3 way call with proper introductions? Do these guys even know each other? Maybe an annual holiday party or something? Good grief! Seriously...hopefully the coordinate tomorrow. My money is on GSP! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I mentioned this earlier but it got swamped in the discussion. I think one of the reasons RAH isn't sold yet is surface temperatures. The surface temps just don't look that great during the event. There will be a lot of melting and cold rain. The cold temps really don't get entrenched until Monday night/Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, PackGrad05 said: I mentioned this earlier but it got swamped in the discussion. I think one of the reasons RAH isn't sold yet is surface temperatures. The surface temps just don't look that great during the event. There will be a lot of melting and cold rain. The cold temps really don't get entrenched until Monday night/Tuesday. I agree with them in Triangle but not Forsyth and Guilford 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, Solak said: OK - I'm more than a little confused about the difference between RAH and GSP. GSP says a Miller-A, and RAH says a Miller-B transfer. Which is it, NWS? I hate this, but I think we need to take them seriously. Models would argue that at least the NW Piedmont gets warning criteria totals, but they are really good mets. I hope they're wrong but have to stay cautious until they jump on board. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Mack’s favorite the JMA looks dead on with the UKMet - also has the late phase and slowly exiting precip 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 11 minutes ago, southernskimmer said: I've also seen numerous times where bitter cold CAD was foretasted, then the dreaded warm nose came out of nowhere and a sleetfest ensued for the duration of the event This remains my concern, a la Feb 2014. VERY similar feel to this storm for the upstate; long duration, high QPF, marginal temps, colder trend on approach, buy in from all models. But come storm time, mostly sleet and zr. WAA was stronger and faster than anticipated. In fact we've mentioned that many times in our post storm "what did we learn" threads, to watch out for WAA, despite the idea that wedges can be strong and stubborn. That's how I see the upstate here, probably all sleet and zr, except favored areas closer to the border. Hoping for a colder surprise though. Actually what I would wish for is the I-20 corridor to be play. Altruistically because Eastern ATL to CAE is due, and selfishly so it would move me in the colder part and I could be mostly snow with plenty of wiggle room! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 ukie verification scores lately have been pretty solid too. above even the fv3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 So how many models are in basic agreement now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 14 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: I like WYFF’s new snowfall map: Really miss ol John in the weather center. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 14 hours ago, oconeexman said: This guy on Fake Book!! I am growing more concerned for areas in Western NC, because the model data continues to paint widespread 15-25” amounts across there. This storm will be a two-part system and one that will most likely bring crippling snowfall to many areas from Interstate 85 and to the north. I even think that South Raleigh may get some snow out of this setup. Some areas will likely get 20"+ of snowfall from this system. This will be a long-duration storm for many areas and lasting nearly 48 hours. Winds are expected in the 15-25mph range and some gusts could reach 50mph at times. This is a borderline "Blizzard" for Western NC. There will be some areas that mix with or change to sleet and freezing rain as well. Please get prepared for this storm now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 18z gfs at 66 has the high sliding east a little bit faster than I think some would want to see. 12z has it in Ohio, 18z has it over WV/NW VA at that point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 gfs looks a tick cooler out to 72 vs 12z, initial precip coming into sc/nc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: This guy on Fake Book!! I am growing more concerned for areas in Western NC, because the model data continues to paint widespread 15-25” amounts across there. This storm will be a two-part system and one that will most likely bring crippling snowfall to many areas from Interstate 85 and to the north. I even think that South Raleigh may get some snow out of this setup. Some areas will likely get 20"+ of snowfall from this system. This will be a long-duration storm for many areas and lasting nearly 48 hours. Winds are expected in the 15-25mph range and some gusts could reach 50mph at times. This is a borderline "Blizzard" for Western NC. There will be some areas that mix with or change to sleet and freezing rain as well. Please get prepared for this storm now! I like it! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, Shane said: So how many models are in basic agreement now? I think all the major ones except the ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, Brick Tamland said: I think all the major ones except the ICON. I thought the Canadian was also somewhat of an outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, Brick Tamland said: I think all the major ones except the ICON. GGEM is kinda on its own. The ICON has a similar look to the others, just too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 GFS a bit colder at 78... snow breaking out over extreme N SC 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 at 84 its about identical to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: at 84 its about identical to 12z looks juicier back west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: at 84 its about identical to 12z Yea LP placement it looks identical. Looks to also be transferring off CHS as well at that juncture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 soundings dont look as good thru 84 for kclt though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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