Poimen Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Of course the Euro is beautiful, but we still had north trends on the before rock-solid FV3 and the wishy washy Canadian. I don't like that all of a sudden we have this northern stream energy to throw a wrench in this deal. That's going to cause madness the next 48 hours. Reeling in these storms in the south is never an easy deal. We just need to be patient, and refuse to freak out over every small model oscillation. Keep in mind that the overall big-picture has remained remarkably steady on the models for several days. Hopefully we'll be preparing for glory come this time Friday. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The bigger concern would probably be that ATL might be in bigger trouble than anyone initially thought. The fact the Euro wants to push snow that far into Georgia gives me doubts that freezing temps don’t reach down there. Right now not one forecasting outlet is giving more than a remote chance it does Yea this could be a scary storm for someone with so much moisture...It should def be a concern especially given how the models often downplay sfc temps in a CAD setup. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 Looking over on the southernwx site, someone just posted the RGEM and its ensembles... Several have the HP at 1042-1043mb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 12z GEFS Snowfall Members for Chapel Hill: 6/20 that range from 1"-7" 14/20 that range from 10-29 inches. Just insanity. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: 12z GEFS Snowfall Members for Chapel Hill: 6/20 that range from 1"-7" 14/20 that range from 10-29 inches. Just insanity. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Looking over on the southernwx site, someone just posted the RGEM and its ensembles... Several have the HP at 1042-1043mb... RGEM is wayyyyyy our of its range and I would caution you that it is always one of the colder models, sometimes overdoes the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: 12z GEFS Snowfall Members for Chapel Hill: 6/20 that range from 1"-7" 14/20 that range from 10-29 inches. Just insanity. Wow! How often do you see that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, Buddy1987 said: RGEM is wayyyyyy our of its range and I would caution you that it is always one of the colder models, sometimes overdoes the cold. Why do they bother wasting what I would assume are scarce computational resources in running a model so far outside of its effective domain? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Obviously caveats 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Looking good for you guys. I'm hoping if we can't get a noticeable shift north that this stays down your way. We've been fringed way too many times up my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Why do they bother wasting what I would assume are scarce computational resources in running a model so far outside of its effective domain? I honestly have no clue. Above my pay grade. A Met would be the one to ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: RGEM is wayyyyyy our of its range and I would caution you that it is always one of the colder models, sometimes overdoes the cold. I'm not buying a HP that strong unless the NAM, GFS, *and* Euro show it and even then I would be skeptical to bite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Looking good for you guys. I'm hoping if we can't get a noticeable shift north that this stays down your way. We've been fringed way too many times up my way. I guess the same reason people look at 84 hr NAM. People want all info available, right or wrong 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: I guess the same reason people look at 84 hr NAM. People want all info available, right or wrong Or better yet, the 192 hour dgex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 16 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Looking over on the southernwx site, someone just posted the RGEM and its ensembles... Several have the HP at 1042-1043mb... On the main run of the RGEM the high over Iowa is at 1038 at the end of the run. There is a 1042 high, but that is sitting over Idaho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 EPS looks great. Higher totals pretty much across the board. I don't have a map that I can share, but hopefully someone else does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, Wurbus said: On the main run of the RGEM the high over Iowa is at 1038 at the end of the run. There is a 1042 high, but that is sitting over Idaho. I know, but one of its ensembles has a 1041 parked over West Virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 58 minutes ago, griteater said: 30 inches of clown snow for snowniner Lol, yep, I'll take my 30 inches and love it!...until the next Euro run! I saw the low further east off the coast and I knew it was going to be a better run than last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Euro ensembles mean is up. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I'm with SnowGoose on Atlanta being completely thrown for a loop, especially if our CAD overperforms. If the Euro is to be believed, I'd imagine some ZR issues, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Very long duration possible, bring your laptops home 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWX Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Wondering if ILM will get enough rain to break 100 inches of rain for the year. It’s at 95.82 right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kelani Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 19 minutes ago, Thor said: Obviously caveats Why is Lenoir/central Caldwell county always a lone dead zone in these guys? (Ok, dead-ish in this one, but you get my point). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 EPS mean is 7 to 9 across Wake. The gradient is diminished, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Euro ensembles mean is up. The fact that this is an ensemble mean is absurd. As much as I want to get deliriously excited about this I think we need to remember that we will for sure be dealing with WAA at some point, no way we will get such a juiced up storm and not have it. WAA is very hard to forecast and many times it comes it stronger than anticipated. Having said that it is beautiful to see these runs continue over and over 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: I know, but one of its ensembles has a 1041 parked over West Virginia Can someone remind me what the RGEM is again. Asking for a friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, cbmclean said: Ca someone remind me what the RGEM is again. Asking for a friend I believe it is the ensembles of the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I am just waiting for the rug to be pulled out from under this storm but model after model keeps showing the same (more or less). I can't recall this level of model consistently from this far out possibly ever. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Amos83 said: The fact that this is an ensemble mean is absurd. As much as I want to get deliriously excited about this I think we need to remember that we will for sure be dealing with WAA at some point, no way we will get such a juiced up storm and not have it. WAA is very hard to forecast and many times it comes it stronger than anticipated. Having said that it is beautiful to see these runs continue over and over i know we keep saying it but jan 2017 storm had the ensembles showing insane totals just like these and the waa screwed many of us. expecting a loooot of sleet with this one. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Amos83 said: The fact that this is an ensemble mean is absurd. As much as I want to get deliriously excited about this I think we need to remember that we will for sure be dealing with WAA at some point, no way we will get such a juiced up storm and not have it. WAA is very hard to forecast and many times it comes it stronger than anticipated. Having said that it is beautiful to see these runs continue over and over We need Kuechera ensemble mean snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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