BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Poimen said: FV 3 Kuchera...not as robust as the GFS but still a good storm (thank you, captain obvious!) I'll take that 14.2 in durham though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, Queencitywx said: I'll take that 14.2 in durham though. Lol...yep we need to cash that out now and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 12z UKMET: Crushed. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrown85 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Poimen said: FV 3 Kuchera...not as robust as the GFS but still a good storm (thank you, captain obvious!) Still trying to learn but Kuchera is just snow measurement? That takes out other p-types correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 UKMet 500mb 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: I'll take that 14.2 in durham though. I like that pocket of 12 over my house, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 UKMet Precip at 72 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Looks like the GEFS mean went up, too. 8 to 12 across Wake. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Really I wouldn't even focus on p-types much right now at all, not until the NAM-3km and RGEM has taken a couple of cracks at this storm. Until then, a rough guideline would be to take the modeled 850 0C line and imagine another line 50-75 miles north of that... there's your sleet zone between those lines. We're still talking NC snow, lol. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: 12z UKMET: Crushed. UKMet tends to be skimpy with precip at range, so the precip amount signal is a big deal there 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: 12z UKMET: Crushed. Just wow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 GFS, UK, and FV3 all look awesome for most of NC, especially Wake westward. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 LOL what 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, griteater said: UKMet tends to be skimpy with precip at range, so the precip amount signal is a big deal there It sure is. I'm also beginning to wonder if this thing arrives early like other overrunning/el nino events. Also wondering if we overperform on QPF like we have for almost every storm since Hurricane Florence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Sure is nice to see the totals today actually be consistent or increase on most of the model runs instead of the other way around. Looks like most have anywhere from 6 to 12 inches across Wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 15 minutes ago, griteater said: UKMet Precip at 72 The 540 line through Savannah! Noice!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 You guys see that kuchera map on fv3 and notice the drop in totals foothills western piedmont,then pick back up triangle area. But in Va, stae line area it was more uniform W-E. The old carolina split and with 850 low right under our nose but atleast luckily passing to our south,it will transfer energy as it morphs or phases with surface low off coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Hugging the Ukie south of 85 here in the upstate. Euro should come in similar. I’m a glutton for punishment 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 12z GEFS snow totals individual panels. A lot more agreement for a big winter storm. Best chances still WNC.. still some members cutting north to hit the MA which would be an issue for eastern half of the state 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Ok, who's owning the EURO pbp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 on the FV3 at least the heaviest snow amounts are trending north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wow said: 12z GEFS snow totals individual panels. A lot more agreement for a big winter storm. Best chances still WNC.. still some members cutting north to hit the MA which would be an issue for eastern half of the state Looks very consistent. I count 17 or 18 that I would consider a big storm for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Compared to this at 6 Z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 @63 euro is close to the 00z run 850's a little north of the 00z run though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGAWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, wncsnow said: on the FV3 at least the heaviest snow amounts are trending north I may be misreading but this conflicts with the FV3 maps that others recently posted? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Compared to this at 6 Z Mine went up at 12z , from 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, wncsnow said: on the FV3 at least the heaviest snow amounts are trending north Wow! That’s a much different look than the kuchera map posted above for FV 3. Wonder what the difference is? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Euro out to 69...the northern stream wave is a little more in front of the southern stream from a longitude standpoint and the NE trough isn't as far to the east...think it could tick slightly south this run, but just guessing...tough to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: Euro out to 69...the northern stream wave is a little more in front of the southern stream from a longitude standpoint and the NE trough isn't as far to the east...think it could slightly south this run, but just guessing...tough to say Out to 75 I tend to agree gonna be timing on this one. Also looks wetter compared to 00z in LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, SouthWake33 said: Wow! That’s a much different look than the kuchera map posted above for FV 3. Wonder what the difference is? One is 6z less snowfal in NC, 12z more snowfall NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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