December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

[Iceagewhereartthou]

1 hour ago, NC_hailstorm said:

I might save this one.Day 8 Euro.

 

Wow, one clown map is bigger than the next! This one will either go down in antiquity or in infamy... but which will it be? 

I have dreams of seeing one storm like that in my lifetime... just once. 

That aside, it's hard not to get excited about the runs over the past 24 hours.

[Waiting on snow]

31 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

I've seen this story play out so many times..model hug at your own peril.  Southeast climo is a beast and more often than not, it wins out.  it's nice to have a storm to track but models are poor getting a handle on these storms 3+ days out.  I do believe somebody is gonna get crushed but who?  it's toss up at this point.  

Yes climo is a beast. Gonna be a lot of disappointed people if they model hug. The south trend will cease and the nw jog will commence in a day or two. Then once we get within 72 hrs the totals will come down to realistic totals. Climo favored areas north of 85 in SC and NC would be my guess at this point. And a few inches at max.

[franklin NCwx]

33 inches would be a nice Christmas present!

[griteater]

Greenville NWS is bullish

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday: Confidence is increasing on a potential major
winter storm event next weekend. The 12z global models and ensembles
all agree on the general set up. A split flow regime across the
CONUS to start the medium range, with progressing from the Northern
Plains to New England, while a southern stream trough enters
southern California. Confluent flow between the two troughs will
allow a fairly strong area of high pressure to drop south into the
Midwest Thursday into Friday. Below normal temps are expected, with
a reinforcing dry cold front pushing thru the area. By Friday
evening, the high will migrate to the Ohio Valley and southern Great
Lakes (still around 1038 mb). The high will be elogated east-west,
with the eastern edge of the air mass spilling into the
Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, the California trough will eject to the
Southern Plains and induce a sfc low along a baroclinic zone along
the TX/LA coast. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement on
isent lift and frontogenesis spreading moisture and QPF north and
east of the low into the cold air across the Southeast states. This
should diabaticly enhance classic cold air damming across the
Carolinas, bringing in even colder air. Using the p-type nomograms
with a blend of GFS/ECWMF, it still looks like a mixed-bag of
p-types, at least on the onset. The high terrain looks to be cold
enough to be pretty much all snow. However, as the low reaches the
GA/FL coasts in Miller-A fashion, the p-type looks to become more of
a ra/sn event, with the postion of the ra/sn line still in question.
The 12z ECMWF and the FV3-GFS have come in colder and suggest that
even the Upstate and Charlotte areas may see a lot of the QPF as
sleet and snow. Storm total QPF of 1-2" certainly suggests that
whoever gets wintry precip will see warning criteria accums. There
is still plenty of time for the details to change. So for the time
being, readers keep abreast of the latest information on the winter
storm potential next weekend.

[Iceagewhereartthou]

1 hour ago, burrel2 said:

I just saw the snowfall maps from the Euro.... I'm at a 10 out of 10 now on the excitement meter. Sure would be nice for the Upstate of SC to jackpot for once in the last 30 years.

That almost seems like an impossible scenario anymore. I guess we did pretty well with Jan 11 storm, but of course our standard is Jan 88. While those totals are pure fantasy, it would be awesome to see a double digit snowfall again, it's been decades for us! Defintiely need this Miller A scenario to happen. Unfortunately, we have to temper ourselves with this being so far out. What are the odds the setup we're seeing today (almost perfect for us) actually verifies? Extremely small I would think. Nevertheless, pretty cool to see so many big dog solutions from various models. 

[franklin NCwx]

Not buying the extreme totals by the euro but this is the year it should shine over the gfs again.

[jjwxman]

6 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

Yes climo is a beast. Gonna be a lot of disappointed people if they model hug. The south trend will cease and the nw jog will commence in a day or two. Then once we get within 72 hrs the totals will come down to realistic totals. Climo favored areas north of 85 in SC and NC would be my guess at this point. And a few inches at max.

Yes I will be very surprised if the GFS doesn’t commence a more suppressed campaign for the next 24-48 hours. Always happens it seems. 

[Orangeburgwx]

0z: 8/50 ensembles give me snow

12z: 31/50

[WeatherNC]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Source: https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/2018/2018120212/

[Iceagewhereartthou]

4 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

Yes I will be very surprised if the GFS doesn’t commence a more suppressed campaign for the next 24-48 hours. Always happens it seems. 

I also agree with that. And the infamous NW trend, though not universal, is climo, so I think most want to see that suppression continue for the next couple days at least. It's going to be a crazy week of watching to say the least, with some mega mood swings in this thread! 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

11 minutes ago, griteater said:

Greenville NWS is bullish

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday: Confidence is increasing on a potential major
winter storm event next weekend. The 12z global models and ensembles
all agree on the general set up. A split flow regime across the
CONUS to start the medium range, with progressing from the Northern
Plains to New England, while a southern stream trough enters
southern California. Confluent flow between the two troughs will
allow a fairly strong area of high pressure to drop south into the
Midwest Thursday into Friday. Below normal temps are expected, with
a reinforcing dry cold front pushing thru the area. By Friday
evening, the high will migrate to the Ohio Valley and southern Great
Lakes (still around 1038 mb). The high will be elogated east-west,
with the eastern edge of the air mass spilling into the
Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, the California trough will eject to the
Southern Plains and induce a sfc low along a baroclinic zone along
the TX/LA coast. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement on
isent lift and frontogenesis spreading moisture and QPF north and
east of the low into the cold air across the Southeast states. This
should diabaticly enhance classic cold air damming across the
Carolinas, bringing in even colder air. Using the p-type nomograms
with a blend of GFS/ECWMF, it still looks like a mixed-bag of
p-types, at least on the onset. The high terrain looks to be cold
enough to be pretty much all snow. However, as the low reaches the
GA/FL coasts in Miller-A fashion, the p-type looks to become more of
a ra/sn event, with the postion of the ra/sn line still in question.
The 12z ECMWF and the FV3-GFS have come in colder and suggest that
even the Upstate and Charlotte areas may see a lot of the QPF as
sleet and snow. Storm total QPF of 1-2" certainly suggests that
whoever gets wintry precip will see warning criteria accums. There
is still plenty of time for the details to change. So for the time
being, readers keep abreast of the latest information on the winter
storm potential next weekend.

That's about as bullish as GSP ever gets, and I don't ever remember that much confidence 6-7 days out. That surprises me at this stage. 

[BullCityWx]

Is that Ukie image a 24 hour precip fxcast?

[WeatherNC]

Just now, Queencitywx said:

Is that Ukie image a 24 hour precip fxcast?

mm / d

[BullCityWx]

Just now, WeatherNC said:

mm / d

Thx. I'll take what it's showing in that case. 

[jjwxman]

12 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

That's about as bullish as GSP ever gets, and I don't ever remember that much confidence 6-7 days out. That surprises me at this stage. 

Yea, RAH is wisely erring on the side of caution as they often do. They are mentioning that CAD favored areas may see at least a wintry mix of all P-Types Saturday night. 

[Buddy1987]

Until the GFS caves to the Euro solution, imo it’s GFS, Ukie, FV3, Canadian vs Euro. 

[Wow]

Looks like the Wunderground forecast algorithms have ingested the latest models.. lol

[Lookout]

23 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I also agree with that. And the infamous NW trend, though not universal, is climo, so I think most want to see that suppression continue for the next couple days at least. It's going to be a crazy week of watching to say the least, with some mega mood swings in this thread! 

Although the nw trend is the norm, it can go the other way too. I can't recall if it was last year or the year before where there was good agreement on a major storm with lots of precip showing up for a few days around this range and in the end it got crushed and i don't think we even got a sprinkle. 

 

[olafminesaw]

16 minutes ago, Wow said:

Looks like the Wunderground forecast algorithms have ingested the latest models.. lol

 

Their algorithm is silly, it has 35 degrees and snow for my location. Would certainly flip to ice or sleet at like, 28-30.

[SnowDawg]

12 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Although the nw trend is the norm, it can go the other way too. I can't recall if it was last year or the year before where there was good agreement on a major storm with lots of precip showing up for a few days around this range and in the end it got crushed and i don't think we even got a sprinkle. 

 

It was definitely last year some time. I remember it well. It was one of the only times after the December storm that things looked interesting IMBY cause everything kept suppressing to the coast and leaving us dry here in far NE GA. But that suppressed all the way to Cuba in the end lol.

[Solak]

Local point forecast - Clayton NC area.

Saturday

Rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night

Rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

[jburns]

13 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Their algorithm is silly, it has 35 degrees and snow for my location. Would certainly flip to ice or sleet at like, 28-30.

Very little is certain. Not sure why you think 28-30 would cause a change.

[WidreMann]

RAH is being too bold.

[cbmclean]

18 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

It was definitely last year some time. I remember it well. It was one of the only times after the December storm that things looked interesting IMBY cause everything kept suppressing to the coast and leaving us dry here in far NE GA. But that suppressed all the way to Cuba in the end lol.

It was last year right after Christmas in the Dec 29ish time frame where there was a large storm modeled which went poof due to being suppressed.

In retrospect, I am glad that it did, because that suppression was the herald of an arctic outbreak the likes of which I had never seen before, including frozen-over lakes in Wilson, NC.  In my opinion, that is more enjoyable than any individual storm.  And much of NC still got to cash in on some snow later anyway.

[jburns]

1 minute ago, WidreMann said:

RAH is being too bold.

And that is an unusual occurrence. I was surprised to see the "snow" word 6 days out as well.

[cbmclean]

2 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

RAH is being too bold.

That surprises me, the Raleigh area has been burnt so many times.  Not that he has anything to do with the RAH forecast, but I think Greg Fishel lost 3 years of life just from the Jan 2016 debacle alone.

[WeatherNC]

8 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

RAH is being too bold.

3 paragraph essay with the long term...

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 420 PM Sunday...

Given the complexity of the forecast flow aloft across the CONUS
this week, there not surprisingly remains amplitude and timing
differences with individual shortwave perturbations embedded within
that flow. While the GFS remains a deep outlier with respect to 500
mb heights over the cntl Appalachians/middle Atlantic at 00Z-12Z
Wed, it has trended toward an otherwise relatively good model
consensus during that time; and the associated QPF signal east of
the Appalachians in recent days is consequently absent, or very
light. As such, no measurable precipitation will be forecast in cntl
NC at this time, with instead a chance of sprinkles over the
Piedmont Tue night, and again over the ne Piedmont and nrn Coastal
Plain with diurnal heating Wed, related to the passage of a
secondary shortwave trough and associated similarly strong height
falls and mid level Fgen. As previously noted, any very light
resulting precipitation during either time would be liquid based on
forecast (wet bulb) thermal profiles.

It will otherwise be colder through the end of the week, as the
trough aloft and cP high pressure migrate ewd across the srn
Appalachians and sern US - coldest Thu, when highs will be in the
40s and lows solidly in the 20s. A reinforcing cold front, and
leading edge of a fresh, stronger cP high, will then move swd
through VA/NC late Fri-Fri night, setting the stage for the arrival
of a srn stream system, or two, next weekend.

The ewd progression of the parent, significant closed low forecast to
migrate through split flow across the ern N Pacific, to near srn CA
by the end of the week, has slowed in recent model cycles - perhaps
not surprisingly given that such closed lows often take longer to
eject ewd than what the models would suggest. As such, the arrival
of resultant precipitation in cntl NC will likely be slower than
previously indicated, particularly so given the presence of the
aforementioned cP high and dryness extending from the upr Midwest,
ewd and then swd in damming fashion east of the Appalachians.
While forecast details remain uncertain, pattern recognition with a
favorably positioned, cold high, and significant cyclogenesis from
the GOM to the sern and middle Atlantic coast, favors wintry
precipitation over the middle Atlantic states, including
particularly the climatologically-favored areas of cntl NC. Given
the time range and uncertainty, forecast p-types of only rain and
snow will be included at this time. However, there would most likely
be some degree of broader mixed p-type transition zones given that
the parent trough aloft is forecast to remain west of the
Appalachians through the weekend, with probable mid level warming
across portions of the Carolinas.

&&

 

[Buddy1987]

18z gfs has snow developing at 144 over NW SC/SW NC. Let’s see where she goes from here. 18z is slightly northeast of its 12z position at this time frame.

[BullCityWx]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

18z gfs has snow developing at 144 over NW SC/SW NC. Let’s see where she goes from here. 18z is slightly northeast of its 12z position at this time frame.

Was just about to post that. I certainly want to see faster movement this time.

[BullCityWx]

Looks like 150 is well within noise range, maybe 35-40 miles north of 12z. I am assuming we'll see a similar result.