beanskip Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: It may prove me wrong this time, but I hate the Canadian model. It has been way north the whole time and is now correcting south. It's just not very good. I'm sure its solution is within the realm of possibility, but I still don't like it. I agree. Don't mean to suggest it should be given high credence, just not zero credence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 25 minutes ago, griteater said: 12z GFS Can’t complain about that look! I’ll take anything other than rain! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 fv3 a bit south with our lp out to 66. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, Touchet said: Anyone worried about the NW trend? Why would I worry about the NW trend when models are already giving me rain..? I am at peace 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, WarmNose said: Why would I worry about the NW trend when models are already giving me rain..? I am at peace Did you see the Sim radar from the GFS!???? You get a ZR/IP party! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 ICON keeps my back yard all snow until about midnight monday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: fv3 a bit south with our lp out to 66. source for early FV3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 How much for Gastonia!? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: source for early FV3? http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php Says GFS, but this is the FV3. Hence the 'eval' in the URL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, griteater said: source for early FV3? TT fv3 sim radar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Why would I worry about the NW trend when models are already giving me rain..? I am at peace same here! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 fv3 looks very similar to the gfs at 96hr. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 14 minutes ago, gearhead302 said: No. It will be 34-36 for a low in orangeburg sc. Cold rain for you sir Looked at the soundings IMBY... Got nailed by the warm nose, if it wasn't for that I would have all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: fv3 looks very similar to the gfs at 96hr. Low looks a little further N to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: fv3 looks very similar to the gfs at 96hr. What is with the low being over central Alabama? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, wncsnow said: Low looks a little further N to me Much weaker high too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Looks a lot farther north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said: Looks a lot farther north It's getting ready to Miller B and switch to the coast I think, mine froze and wont show any more panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 The HP is weaker and north, the LP is north by quite a bit too. Eagerly awaiting another EURO run now. I feel as if the lug nuts are getting loose. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 The overall pressure fields look fairly similar — a little weaker up north and maybe a tad slower with the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 It's Miller B hybrid basically...the advantage with this storm is having the damming high out front. We haven't had that in some recent winter storms. So, upstate to Charlotte to Raleigh, you just hope to get smacked with the early heavy overrunning portion of the storm before the warming aloft moves in....and make no mistake about it, it will move in with this setup. Of course, things will change on the models over the next 3 days...that's almost a certainty. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 it is about to transfer offshore sc. just like 06z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Guys, this is the FV3 at 96 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 here is an image to save, from the 12z gfs for charlotte lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: It's Miller B hybrid basically...the advantage with this storm is having the damming high out front. We haven't had that in some recent winter storms. So, upstate to Charlotte to Raleigh, you just hope to get smacked with the early heavy overrunning portion of the storm before the warming aloft moves in....and make no mistake about it, it will move in with this setup. Of course, things will change on the models over the next 3 days...that's almost a certainty. Looking a lot like the Jan 2016 storm IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 The FV 3 is handing off to the coastal low at hour 96. It's a hybrid Miller A/B. I bet you there's a low off the SC coast on the next frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 14 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Can’t complain about that look! I’ll take anything other than rain! Hope you're including no freezing rain in the no rain statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, ajr said: The overall pressure fields look about the same honestly - maybe a tad slower with the low. Nice run for so far (hr 96) for our area. We will want to see this transfer to the SE to the coast for us to stay wintery. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Looked at the soundings IMBY... Got nailed by the warm nose, if it wasn't for that I would have all snow You're going to need a lot of rest when this is over. You're getting a hell of a workout climbing up and down the cliff. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Wow said: Guys, this is the FV3 at 96 Frankly looks very close to current operational GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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