Orangeburgwx Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, griteater said: 12z GFS So where the TT shows me getting rain, in actuality it will be a sleetfest for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, burgertime said: Take your chances with that. I think you still end up with a sleet/snow profile...what no one wants is ZR. If that warm nose sets up shop (and it almost always does) that will not be good for CLT. agree but soundings have improved over the past 6 runs or so. still expecting the nam to show that warm nose about 36hrs out once we are all nice and excited. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Canadian with the worst run in days, high snow amounts move north to West Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, DopplerWx said: agree but soundings have improved over the past 6 runs or so. still expecting the nam to show that warm nose about 36hrs out once we are all nice and excited. Phil’s Coefficient radarscope will be getting a workout by me for this one, like always these last few years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 GFS Total Liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 A close up view of the GFS with Kuchera method: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, AsheCounty48 said: Canadian with the worst run in days, high snow amounts move north to West Virginia. Although an outlier at this point, don't think we can totally dismiss it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, FallsLake said: For RDU folks, this was a better run. As currently modeled, the farther west and north from Raleigh the better. **If it's right I barely stay all snow through the event. I've seen this too many time. Agreed, I've seen it way too many times. If every model run from now until the event was like this, I'd definitely expect major mixing. Usually if the mixing is that close, you can take it to the bank for my area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Good for the mountain communities today, that's gonna be a heckuva lot more than an inch or two for Boone at those rates. A hot streak in December for the ski resorts! Educational question - what model(s) are incorporated into the Bufkit product? Just one run or multiple runs? Curious how frequently those get updated and if we get a drastic shift in the models in the next day or two, if the shift will be as equally drastic in the Bufkit product or if it will be averaged out over time? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 The Canadian is phasing the northern stream wave into the southern stream wave early--causing a more northward motion of the surface low and warm air overwhelming the CAD. The GFS has no such phasing so early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, WxKnurd said: Phil’s Coefficient radarscope will be getting a workout by me for this one, like always these last few years. now that is the kiss of death, will never forget when he popped in the jan 2017 thread and fired the warning shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Having that transition line right there at SC Highway 9 is still a bit worrisome. I'd like to see it 50 miles south of there, at least for the CLT metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, ryan1234 said: Having that transition line right there at SC Highway 9 is still a bit worrisome. I'd like to see it 50 miles south of there, at least for the CLT metro. hoping we can get it to keep trending cooler over the next 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 Wow that Kuchera snow edge line jumped wayyyy south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I think it would be very, very, very dangerous to assume the Canadian is wrong here. Historically there have definitely been winter storms it has sniffed out accurately before even King Euro. Not saying it's right, saying it possible it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, beanskip said: I think it would be very, very, very dangerous to assume the Canadian is wrong here. Historically there have definitely been winter storms it has sniffed out accurately before even King Euro. Not saying it's right, saying it possible it's right. I think I'd be much more worried if it was the UKMET. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Solid 5 to 10 inches across Wake, and that's with the Kuchera map. It would be nice sometime to get a winter storm that drops similar (large)amounts of snow across the whole county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: now that is the kiss of death, will never forget when he popped in the jan 2017 thread and fired the warning shot. The crusher of hopes and dreams lol. These big storms are always hard to start and stay all snow for us, even growing up around Hickory you’d have some sleet and then a glaze of freezing rain to end. My issue the past few storms at my place besides the sleet has been terrible dendrite growth. Everyone will be talking about big fat flakes and I’ll be getting hit with dime size or smaller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, Poimen said: A close up view of the GFS with Kuchera method: That would be absolutely insane, even given the last few years. A gradient of almost zero in Rock Hill to 2 feet in Mooresville is surely unprecedented. Fortunately, I'll be up in Denver for "early in-law Christmas" on Sunday. Although, I guess I could get stuck there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: I think I'd be much more worried if it was the UKMET. When it does that it usually had the ukie in its camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, beanskip said: I think it would be very, very, very dangerous to assume the Canadian is wrong here. Historically there have definitely been winter storms it has sniffed out accurately before even King Euro. Not saying it's right, saying it possible it's right. I agree, as long as it didn't have any "erroneous" issues it's another possible outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, DopplerWx said: hoping we can get it to keep trending cooler over the next 3 days. Cheers to that friend. For once, I'd like to see that warm nose get extinguished and never make it past Kershaw or Winnsboro. We are so overdue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Touchet Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Anyone worried about the NW trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: I think I'd be much more worried if it was the UKMET. That's exactly my thought. I wouldn't put too much stock into the CMC at this point. It's on an island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gearhead302 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 14 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: So where the TT shows me getting rain, in actuality it will be a sleetfest for me? No. It will be 34-36 for a low in orangeburg sc. Cold rain for you sir 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, beanskip said: I think it would be very, very, very dangerous to assume the Canadian is wrong here. Historically there have definitely been winter storms it has sniffed out accurately before even King Euro. Not saying it's right, saying it possible it's right. 1000% agree. If this was Friday I might throw it out but still too far out to throw any solutions out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 CMC would be an icy mess for most in the piedmont. Should probably be taken as a realistic option. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 This will be one of the longest duration storms I've experienced, around 36 hours of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 It may prove me wrong this time, but I hate the Canadian model. It has been way north the whole time and is now correcting south. It's just not very good. I'm sure its solution is within the realm of possibility, but I still don't like it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Ukmet ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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