SnowDeac Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Some of the runs closed off the 500mb wave nicely and moved it slowly thru the southeast...so in that case yes, you'd see that type of dynamical cooling and lingering of the precip. But that non-withstanding, we can look a little lower at the 850mb low track. For this setup, with a good closed 850mb low like this, for the upstate into Charlotte, we'd want to see that low track say from S MS to coastal SC. That keeps the mid-level warming in check and you'd have good lift and cooling there on the NW side of the 850 low track (Miller A scenario). Looking at the 06z FV3 GFS, it tracks the 850 low roughly from N MS to Cape Hatteras...so, that's too far north to keep it all snow in this region (brings in too much warming aloft). Verbatim, the 06z FV3 GFS does have quite a bit of snow, but you get the picture...it puts us on the edge on that run Yep, that all makes sense. I wonder if anyone has a latitude/longitude benchmark for CLT/RDU/other cities similar to 40-70 that is so often used for the I-95 corridor in the NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just because it's an important feature with this storm I wanted to look at data supporting some of the things we talk about... turns out there is actual data supporting under modeling of CAD, both in onset and erosion (the latter appears mainly with forecasting low temperatures, i.e. prematurely cutting off the CAD at night). Quote "During the 10- year study period, MOS guidance forecasted maximum temperatures too high and minimum temperatures too low for most of the problematic CAD events, suggesting MOS guidance tended to underestimate the strength of CAD in these cases, seeming to struggle with weaker CAD events." https://vtechworks.lib.vt.edu/bitstream/handle/10919/83476/Lindeman_SA_T_2018.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: icon still showing initial snow in clt thru sunday morning before changing to rain for areas even to asheville. It’s not rain. Look at surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: icon still showing initial snow in clt thru sunday morning before changing to rain for areas even to asheville. Just a note that the ICON takes the sfc temperatures to below freezing in CLT and parts of the upstate as the precip rolls thru (i.e. icy mix instead of rain) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, griteater said: Some of the runs closed off the 500mb wave nicely and moved it slowly thru the southeast...so in that case yes, you'd see that type of dynamical cooling and lingering of the precip. But that non-withstanding, we can look a little lower at the 850mb low track. For this setup, with a good closed 850mb low like this, for the upstate into Charlotte, we'd want to see that low track say from S MS to coastal SC. That keeps the mid-level warming in check and you'd have good lift and cooling there on the NW side of the 850 low track (Miller A scenario). Looking at the 06z FV3 GFS, it tracks the 850 low roughly from N MS to Cape Hatteras...so, that's too far north to keep it all snow in this region (brings in too much warming aloft). Verbatim, the 06z FV3 GFS does have quite a bit of snow, but you get the picture...it puts us on the edge on that run Yeah going NE up the coast from SAV is going to do bad things.....the only people that cash in on that track are the foothill/mts.....the rest of us need a later phase or better yet a slow moving OTS track with a phase well off the SE coast....that track is gonna give the Triad etc ptype issues if it pans out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, SnowDeac said: Yep, that all makes sense. I wonder if anyone has a latitude/longitude benchmark for CLT/RDU/other cities similar to 40-70 that is so often used for the I-95 corridor in the NE? I know the Huffman boys have done some work on this in the past with surface low benchmarks....but I will say that there are various types of storms and various configurations at 850 and 500mb, so you kind of have to put them in storm type groups before establishing some of those benchmarks above the surface. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, SnowDeac said: Yep, that all makes sense. I wonder if anyone has a latitude/longitude benchmark for CLT/RDU/other cities similar to 40-70 that is so often used for the I-95 corridor in the NE? Allan or Brandon does. Basically for a HKY blockbuster a Miller A track around CHS and up the coast is best, CLT was SAV or Jacksonville and riding just a bit further off coast. If I remember correctly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, jjwxman said: I'm 15 miles south of Greensboro, I have already prepared myself for a sleet fest. Just like in the January 2017 storm. In Randleman we had 4-5" of snow/sleet. In Pleasant Garden, 10 miles to my north they had 10-11" of all snow. Preparing myself for a similar outcome. I'm expecting something similar. I'm just to your west a couple of miles in Sophia. That was still quite a storm. Sleet has some staying power. I don't think folks are preparing well, yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 14 minutes ago, msuwx said: 6z GFS had a good bit of snow for KCLT, per BUFKIT. @msuwx sorry for the OT. Matt some folks on SPS were wondering where the SkyDogs were. I told them you were busy...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, griteater said: Just a note that the ICON takes the sfc temperatures to below freezing in CLT and parts of the upstate as the precip rolls thru (i.e. icy mix instead of rain) UH-OH! If that scenario were to be realized, this would not bode well for Power and Property FOR SURE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 12z ICON was slightly better (at least for RDU) then 6z. ~3 to 4" in the Triangle before a switch over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 27 minutes ago, msuwx said: 6z GFS had a good bit of snow for KCLT, per BUFKIT. Best site for BUFKIT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 Out to 60, precip shield over TX/OK is further south and the LP is 1mb stronger... Nothing has changed with the HP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bamabuilder86 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I’m thinking about heading up to the Banner Elk area this weekend from Alabama. Here’s my question for you locals - traditionally, how will the roads be Monday in that area? I would have to go home Monday. Granted I have a Wrangler Rubicon that is more than capable. Just not wanting to get in a situation where I can’t get back. I’ve never had an issue in snow, even deep snow. Ice however is a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 66 1037mb HP centered over South Bend, Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, Bamabuilder86 said: I’m thinking about heading up to the Banner Elk area this weekend from Alabama. Here’s my question for you locals - traditionally, how will the roads be Monday in that area? I would have to go home Monday. Granted I have a Wrangler Rubicon that is more than capable. Just not wanting to get in a situation where I can’t get back. I’ve never had an issue in snow, even deep snow. Ice however is a different story. I would not assume that roads could be cleared in time for you to get back to Alabama from Banner Elk. Honestly, you’re just as good in Morganton or somewhere in the foothills that is interstate adjacent. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: 66 1037mb HP centered over South Bend, Indiana Seems to be running out ahead of the LP some, with the LP hanging back a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 26 minutes ago, griteater said: Some of the runs closed off the 500mb wave nicely and moved it slowly thru the southeast...so in that case yes, you'd see that type of dynamical cooling and lingering of the precip. But that non-withstanding, we can look a little lower at the 850mb low track. For this setup, with a good closed 850mb low like this, for the upstate into Charlotte, we'd want to see that low track say from S MS to coastal SC. That keeps the mid-level warming in check and you'd have good lift and cooling there on the NW side of the 850 low track (Miller A scenario). Looking at the 06z FV3 GFS, it tracks the 850 low roughly from N MS to Cape Hatteras...so, that's too far north to keep it all snow in this region (brings in too much warming aloft). Verbatim, the 06z FV3 GFS does have quite a bit of snow, but you get the picture...it puts us on the edge on that run This is the million dollar question and anawers those benchmark questions as well. WHERE DOES THE 850 LOW TRACK. That will tell everyone what the precip type will be for your back yard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 Hope you guys don't mind me doing the pbp... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 5h @72 it looks better to me than the 6z run. S/W is a little diggier and confluence looks a little better in the NE. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 500mb trough a bit sharper at 12 vs. 6z. Maybe a tad slower too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 72 HP in Ohio, LP just emerging off the TX coast by Houston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Notably lower DPs at hour 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 What the hell... 78: HP jumps back into Wisconsin, LP further inland over Louisiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 @87 it goes...BOOM! This looks like a spectacular run for WNC/CNC 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Go to king street webcam boone if you want to see heavy snow. Holy cow to be up there right now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: What the hell... 78: HP jumps back into Wisconsin, LP further inland over Louisiana 850's are better though than the 6z at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 34 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Like the trends, my rain is getting less cold! You really need to consider moving along or north of 85. 6 miles short is just too far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 dps a bit better and the snow line is maybe a tick south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, burgertime said: @87 it goes...BOOM! This looks like a spectacular run for WNC/CNC Absolute CLASSIC post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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