FlatLander48 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, burgertime said: Good news is NAM looks like a great setup. Good confluence in the NE. Big energy in TX. Bad news is it's 84hrs on the NAM. It is equivalent to the EURO even at 84. i'll take it at this point in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Rankin5150 said: TOUCHE! I agree!! I would take an OVERRUNNING setup any day over phased. Yep it's too many moving parts. This has to be the toughest place in the country along the I85 corridor to forecast winter weather. Most of the time you just don't know what you'll get until it's falling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, AsheCounty48 said: It is equivalent to the EURO even at 84. i'll take it at this point in the game. Which as bean has said over and over...EE rule in effect. Take the NAM bias and that's a blockbuster setup IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Looks like some folks are worried about the NAM being too warm for my neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I thought the NAM looked really good save the last couple of frames where it looked like the northern shortwaves toppling the west coast ridge were starting to exert their influence on the southern wave (it looks fine for the more northwest areas) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: Looks like some folks are worried about the NAM being too warm for my neck of the woods. That's cause they're just "some folks". Come on man....you still doing this? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2m temps increased by 1 or 2 on the NAM but the DPs are still way better than the GFS. Just now, Brick Tamland said: Looks like some folks are worried about the NAM being too warm for my neck of the woods. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: Looks like some folks are worried about the NAM being too warm for my neck of the woods. That's always been a concern. It's going to be close. I do think we start as snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, griteater said: I thought the NAM looked really good save the last couple of frames where it looked like the northern shortwaves toppling the west coast ridge were starting to exert their influence on the southern wave (it looks fine for the more northwest areas) I thought the same thing...especially given the NAM bias in CAD setups anyways. I haven't looked at the Euro but if that's what the Euro looks like then people have a right to be excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Still looking like all rain for me here in Rockingham, NC never gets below freezing here...low only gets to 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 hour ago, beanskip said: Man, there was some terrible Euro analysis last night. If you're going to stay up that late, at least get it right. Couple observations: 1) EE rule is in effect. For newbies, the NAM used to be called the ETA. The EE rule is that if the Euro and the ETA are in agreement, take it to the bank 2) This also reminds me of the "Larry Cosgrove" storm from about 10 years ago (strongwx/QueenCityWx/Lookout/HKY and others will remember) when he came on the boards and pooh poohed those who argued that the models were underforecasting the CAD based on the position of the high. Needless to say, he hasn't been back to the board since and the entire southeast was crippled. 3) I'm trying to remember a system with such widespread QPF consistently forecasted from a week out -- heck, even in the short term I'm not sure I ever remember 3+" of QPF forecasted with a winter storm. Have to wonder if the models will accurately predict the interaction between that much water and the rest of the atmosphere. 4) Wish I was still up there to be in the thick of things! Sure do Skip! Good times! 26 minutes ago, burgertime said: Makes a hecka of a lot of sense. Those kickers have come to bite us in the past on a few storms. So many times the kickers will come in 12-18 hours before hand and totally derail things. 17 minutes ago, beanskip said: 12z NAM surface low position at 0z Sunday (84 hours) almost right on top of 0z Euro position at the same time (96 hours) -- both over the south-central La. coast. EE man. Also, thanks for kicking in the disco man! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Forgive my ignorance , but in a gulf system this strong, is there a potential for a ULL to form on the west side of the system? I feel like we've seen that with some storms in the past that allow the storm to "make it's own cold", but have not seen anything like that modeled here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 23 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: As long as it's not too early and sends the low into Tennessee You don't want a phase.. Because if that second piece holds off a bit we all get an ULL double shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowDeac said: Forgive my ignorance , but in a gulf system this strong, is there a potential for a ULL to form on the west side of the system? I feel like we've seen that with some storms in the past that allow the storm to "make it's own cold", but have not seen anything like that modeled here. No ignorance, that has been hinted at more than once the last two days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 NAM and Euro lining up is great for mby but I also realize this is premature. Need that alignment to hold for about 36hrs longer than I'll become more of a believer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 So much funner tracking as oppossed to looking for a pattern change weeks down the road. Which is usually what we are doing 1st week of December 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 hour ago, beanskip said: 'm trying to remember a system with such widespread QPF consistently forecasted from a week out -- heck, even in the short term I'm not sure I ever remember 3+" of QPF forecasted with a winter storm. Have to wonder if the models will accurately predict the interaction between that much water and the rest of the atmosphere. Storm of the Century? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: Sure do Skip! Good times! So many times the kickers will come in 12-18 hours before hand and totally derail things. EE man. Also, thanks for kicking in the disco man! I remember when this happened with LC. EPIC! Robert (Foothills) OWNED that storm! He killed it. His warnings helped me prepare TREMENDOUSLY. Great times with all of you guys. I remember a lot of you from the WWB!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Watch your Buffkit data.... The lines are already being drawn. As of the morning runs: GSO, INT, HKY snow. All other sites to the South and East.. no snow (RDU, CLT) with transition line somewhere in between those areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 To me this is just looking like a classic Mountains/Foothills/NW Piedmont snowstorm. I'm sure there will be some significant icing in the transition zone, however this is about as classic a looking setup you can get from AVL to HKY to GSO and northwest. Jackpot zone will likely line up over the NW mountains into SW Virginia. This is not a good setup for RDU to CLT for snow, unfortunately. I'm sure those areas could see a couple inches courtesy of frontend overrunning isentropic banding or on the backend via the upper low/PJ energy dropping in behind the storm. But they will struggle mightily with the Sleet/ZR/plain Jane rain mixing in. I'm still not sold the sleet/zr will not reach into the Foothills, either. I've seen these setups too many times. SLP track will be critical for those areas. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, SnowDeac said: Forgive my ignorance , but in a gulf system this strong, is there a potential for a ULL to form on the west side of the system? I feel like we've seen that with some storms in the past that allow the storm to "make it's own cold", but have not seen anything like that modeled here. If I am not mistaken, the models (or a couple of them) is already showing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, HKY_WX said: To me this is just looking like a classic Mountains/Foothills/NW Piedmont snowstorm. I'm sure there will be some icing in the transition zone, however this is about as classic a looking setup you can get from AVL to HKY to GSO and northwest. Jackpot zone will likely line up over the NW mountains into SW Virginia. Me and my wife are already talking about going to the Mountains this weekend! If things keep trending in this direction, I am going to load up the 4WD and head that way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, nchighcountrywx said: Watch your Buffkit data.... The lines are already being drawn. As of the morning runs: GSO, INT, HKY snow. All other sites to the South and East.. no snow (RDU, CLT) with transition line somewhere in between those areas. 6z GFS had a good bit of snow for KCLT, per BUFKIT. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Like the trends, my rain is getting less cold! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, msuwx said: 6z GFS had a good bit of snow for KCLT, per BUFKIT. Thank you Matthew! Hope all is well man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, SnowDeac said: Forgive my ignorance , but in a gulf system this strong, is there a potential for a ULL to form on the west side of the system? I feel like we've seen that with some storms in the past that allow the storm to "make it's own cold", but have not seen anything like that modeled here. Some of the runs closed off the 500mb wave nicely and moved it slowly thru the southeast...so in that case yes, you'd see that type of dynamical cooling and lingering of the precip. But that non-withstanding, we can look a little lower at the 850mb low track. For this setup, with a good closed 850mb low like this, for the upstate into Charlotte, we'd want to see that low track say from S MS to coastal SC. That keeps the mid-level warming in check and you'd have good lift and cooling there on the NW side of the 850 low track (Miller A scenario). Looking at the 06z FV3 GFS, it tracks the 850 low roughly from N MS to Cape Hatteras...so, that's too far north to keep it all snow in this region (brings in too much warming aloft). Verbatim, the 06z FV3 GFS does have quite a bit of snow, but you get the picture...it puts us on the edge on that run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, nchighcountrywx said: Watch your Buffkit data.... The lines are already being drawn. As of the morning runs: GSO, INT, HKY snow. All other sites to the South and East.. no snow (RDU, CLT) with transition line somewhere in between those areas. I'm 15 miles south of Greensboro, I have already prepared myself for a sleet fest. Just like in the January 2017 storm. In Randleman we had 4-5" of snow/sleet. In Pleasant Garden, 10 miles to my north they had 10-11" of all snow. Preparing myself for a similar outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 39 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: I should have stated outside of the mountains. I enjoyed the phasing blizzard of 93 quite a bit in Lenoir, NC, outside of the mountains. I'm not too far away from that same spot now. I wouldn't mind a rehash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 12z Icon is very similar to its 6z counterpart. Low tracks from just off the coasts of CHS and MYR and up to a position just off the outer banks. HP looks to be sliding off to the east however a little quicker than most would like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 icon still showing initial snow in clt thru sunday morning before changing to rain for areas even to asheville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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