BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Checked my soundings through 6z on Monday on this GFS run. Looks like it SHOULD be all snow through then, if the model is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Queencity, Might I impose for the RDU numbers? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: 6z gfs has clt right on the rain snow line and in turn spit out these ridiculous numbers. i don't buy it though, i think we see a lot more sleet and a lot more rain than snow. As they say, "to get the epic snow you want to be able to smell the rain". Needless to say, this would paralyze the city for a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Almost reminds me of that February 2015 storm. I think this could be a great analog. Could see getting a good storm with layers...don't think CLT gets a foot but I could def see 6 inches with an inch of sleet and some frozen rain/drizzle thrown in at the end....and then a bump of snow again at the end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I've seen 2 noticeable trends on the EPS. First, the 50/50 low has trended stronger and SW, which I think is good. That's why our high pressure is modeled great and our confluence is keeping the low suppressed in the gulf nicely. However it seems like once the storm hits the coast, the northern stream energy is phasing and tugging it closer to the coast on the last several runs. Therefore I still like the threat of a good first thump of snow/sleet, but once the storm is to our south, things may pull north and WAA will take over. That's right now. Hopefully that 50/50 will get keep trending stronger and the northern energy will trend slower to keep this thing south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Queencity, Might I impose for the RDU numbers? RDU looks similar but a little less. An inch less on the means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, burgertime said: I think this could be a great analog. Could see getting a good storm with layers...don't think CLT gets a foot but I could def see 6 inches with an inch of sleet and some frozen rain/drizzle thrown in at the end....and then a bump of snow again at the end. yea looking at soundings on the 6z gfs clt looks all snow thru 96 then a warm nose pops up at 102 turning us to sleet. encouraging that the warmer gfs shows a nice front end thumping. if we can get the nam thermals to verify we would be in even better shape. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, burgertime said: I think this could be a great analog. Could see getting a good storm with layers...don't think CLT gets a foot but I could def see 6 inches with an inch of sleet and some frozen rain/drizzle thrown in at the end....and then a bump of snow again at the end. I could also see a january 1987 sort of situation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, DopplerWx said: yea looking at soundings on the 6z gfs clt looks all snow thru 96 then a warm nose pops up at 102 turning us to sleet. encouraging that the warmer gfs shows a nice front end thumping. if we can get the nam thermals to verify we would be in even better shape. Rooting for you just always that pesky WAA that kills the CLT area in these storms. It does look pretty good to my eyes though that you get that big hit up front...and cross your fingers maybe it sticks around longer than expected. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I dont think this is an awful comparison 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: I could also see a january 1987 sort of situation. Living on the edge my friend ....but it is looking like it'll be a fun storm to track at the very least. Everything does look good though from confluence in the north and a good high over the lakes. It certainly has me looking at the models haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Not sure how accurate this output is from coolwx.com, but if no sleet were to mix in, in GSO like this image depicts below, this could be the outcome. But I'm pretty sure sleet will be factor in GSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=SC&stn=KCAE&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec You can't have a lower "trace" than that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: I dont think this is an awful comparison Seems like that transition line is almost identical in all of our storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, Queencitywx said: I dont think this is an awful comparison I could totally believe that. That looks more realistic than some of these insane total GFS/Euro were popping out. Someone is going to get mixing out of this so if you're on that 1-2 line like above..heartbreak! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, jjwxman said: Not sure how accurate this output is from coolwx.com, but if no sleet were to mix in, in GSO like this image depicts below, this could be the outcome. But I'm pretty sure sleet will be factor in GSO. The bufkit warehouse text output will give you more information. It has 25.7" of snow and .13" of ice pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: I dont think this is an awful comparison That's horrible, my area doesn't get jack if we are comparing. All rain for me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: I dont think this is an awful comparison I think though that we are headed in the direction of more of a Miller B or Miller B Hybrid as HkyWx calls it....where that was straight Miller A...so, I would expect much more mixed precip compared to that one, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, burgertime said: I could totally believe that. That looks more realistic than some of these insane total GFS/Euro were popping out. Someone is going to get mixing out of this so if you're on that 1-2 line like above..heartbreak! And that storm was tremendously underforecasted by the NWS. I know Bastardi gets ripped on here a lot but he was on local radio at the time and really stepped out calling for 6-10 inches and was the ONLY one doing so but as you can see from the graphic the sharp cutoff was really close. Gonna be some hearts breaking on this one. Good thing we have the sanitarium! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, CentralNC said: And that storm was tremendously underforecasted by the NWS. I know Bastardi gets ripped on here a lot but he was on local radio at the time and really stepped out calling for 6-10 inches and was the ONLY one doing so but as you can see from the graphic the sharp cutoff was really close. Gonna be some hearts breaking on this one. Good thing we have the sanitarium! Here's RDU: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, griteater said: I think though that we are headed in the direction of more of a Miller B or Miller B Hybrid as HkyWx calls it....where that was straight Miller A...so, I would expect much more mixed precip compared to that one, IMO You think this has big ZR potential? Maybe I'm wrong but just looking at GFS (don't have access to Euro at the moment) it doesn't look like it'll take much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Here's RDU: I hate to be a bummer, but bufkit only says that RDU gets .9" of snow from that run and no other frozen precip. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=krdu 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 The 6z gefs mean QPF and snowfall means we’re both south of 0z also increased mean snowfall quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Here's RDU: It'll be interesting to see if that change over is more of a zr vs a rn scenario. Or if we get a lot more mixing period. It is extremely close in my area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, burgertime said: You think this has big ZR potential? Maybe I'm wrong but just looking at GFS (don't have access to Euro at the moment) it doesn't look like it'll take much. I think the cold damming is going to lock in pretty well with this one. Yeah, legit concerns for substantial ice...just a matter of how much sleet vs. frz rain, and where that shakes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Thanks Falls and Queencity. CantralNC, After January 2017 I'm all conditioned for this one to have the sharp cutoff west of my location 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 11 minutes ago, burgertime said: I could totally believe that. That looks more realistic than some of these insane total GFS/Euro were popping out. Someone is going to get mixing out of this so if you're on that 1-2 line like above..heartbreak! Haha...i live on the 1-2 line...every storm...every time. I fully expect it to play out just like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, packfan98 said: I hate to be a bummer, but bufkit only says that RDU gets .9" of snow from that run and no other frozen precip. Lol...I'll take my >1" and be happy. Kidding aside, I would expect a little more then 1" but that is a possibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, CaryWx said: Thanks Falls and Queencity. CantralNC, After January 2017 I'm all conditioned for this one to have the sharp cutoff west of my location Well it's a distinct possibility. I would worry a lot about IP/ZR however. Back end thump may be nice though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, griteater said: I think the cold damming is going to lock in pretty well with this one. Yeah, legit concerns for substantial ice...just a matter of how much sleet vs. frz rain, and where that shakes out Yea that high in the north is enough...plus good high over the lakes so probably just being paranoid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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