FallsLake Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 The 6z NAM is beautiful. Very pronounced CAD with an ideal high and low setup: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, southernskimmer said: We need to stop living and dying by each model run. A variety of solutions are on the table and it’s impossible to nail this far out . Long way to go before anybody reels anything in. If we were ever gonna stop living and dying with every model run it would have happened by now. 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, Dunkman said: If we were ever gonna stop living and dying with every model run it would have happened by now. Yep, this is our hobby. It's like playing a board game where you roll the dice every 6 hours. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Boy the FV3 looked good. Someone is gonna get smacked by that deform band on Tuesday, if it's real. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, FallsLake said: The 6z NAM is beautiful. Very pronounced CAD with an ideal high and low setup: The high on the NAM is now sub 1040, a slight weakening and not good if you were hanging your hat on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, mackerel_sky said: The high on the NAM is now sub 1040, a slight weakening and not good if you were hanging your hat on the NAM Sub 1040 will still get the job done up my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Boy the FV3 looked good. Someone is gonna get smacked by that deform band on Tuesday, if it's real. I need it to shift north a little..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, CentralNC said: Sub 1040 will still get the job done up my way. With that look it's still perfect. I dare say anything stronger would suppress the storm way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: Once the 3km NAM is in range we'll have a better idea. It's usually spot on with precipitation type with wedges Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: With that look it's still perfect. I dare say anything stronger would suppress the storm way south. I’m just looking for “ trends” the NAM has the strongest of any high pressures modeled! If we’re dependent on stronger high , to get colder wedge and temps , on a borderline airmass already, not much room for a weakening trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, FallsLake said: With that look it's still perfect. I dare say anything stronger would suppress the storm way south. I live in Raleigh, what is your opinion for Raleigh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, mackerel_sky said: I’m just looking for “ trends” the NAM has the strongest of any high pressures modeled! If we’re dependent on stronger high , to get colder wedge and temps , on a borderline airmass already, not much room for a weakening trend! True. I'm hoping the next model runs start to lean towards it's depiction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mstr4j Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Long time avid reader and first question ever on this AWESOME forum. My question for you weather experts is this (I Hope it's not confusing as I am still learning) - I understand that the NAM does a much better job at predicting and forecasting CAD events much better than global models. My question is however, does the NAM do well with forecasting where the actual location of the HP will be, or only if the HP is actually there then it determines the strength of the wedge. Virtually as the event is closer is it actually better to watch the NAM as a higher resolution model that doesn't do well with actual forecasting of where that High will be orrrrrrrrr watch the global models position of that HP and then go with the NAM's thermal profile? Make sense? Either way, been a great time following this forum and this HUGEEEE Winter Weather Threat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Nraleigh said: I live in Raleigh, what is your opinion for Raleigh? We always live on the edge. As always there's going to be transition lines running through Wake County. I think if the GFS(s)/euro are right, we're looking at some front end snow changing to rain, and then back to a little snow. Honestly I would think a few inches at best (messy). If the NAMs depiction of the CAD is right, I think we still mix but it wont be plain rain. More sleet and freezing rain, which would end up a significant storm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, mstr4j said: Long time avid reader and first question ever on this AWESOME forum. My question for you weather experts is this (I Hope it's not confusing as I am still learning) - I understand that the NAM does a much better job at predicting and forecasting CAD events much better than global models. My question is however, does the NAM do well with forecasting where the actual location of the HP will be, or only if the HP is actually there then it determines the strength of the wedge. Virtually as the event is closer is it actually better to watch the NAM as a higher resolution model that doesn't do well with actual forecasting of where that High will be orrrrrrrrr watch the global models position of that HP and then go with the NAM's thermal profile? Make sense? Either way, been a great time following this forum and this HUGEEEE Winter Weather Threat IMO, it doesn't generally do a good job predicting where things will be at 84 hours; however in this case, it appears to line up pretty well with the Euro at 84 hrs. Because it somewhat matches the Euro at 5h, you can use the NAM's high scale resolution to get a more accurate prediction on surface temps/dew points, rain/snow/freezing lines if the Euro scenario plays out. At least that's my weenie take on it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, burrel2 said: IMO, it doesn't generally do a good job predicting where things will be at 84 hours; however in this case, it appears to line up pretty well with the Euro at 84 hrs. Because it somewhat matches the Euro at 5h, you can use the NAM's high scale resolution to get a more accurate prediction on surface temps/dew points, rain/snow/freezing lines if the Euro scenario plays out. At least that's my weenie take on it... Forgot about the old "EE rule" -- it's in effect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6z GEFS Snow means for Chapel Hill: Down to zero whiffs. 7/20 show single digits but nothing below 3" 4/20 show 10-12" 9/20 show 12"+ Of those 9, 3 show 20"+ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Time for my semi-annual pet peeve post. One shift does not equal a “trend.” You need multiple, subsequent movements of something in the same direction for it to be a trend. In other words, multiple model cycles in a row, not 1. 21 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, msuwx said: Time for my semi-annual pet peeve post. One shift does not equal a “trend.” You need multiple, subsequent movements of something in the same direction for it to be a trend. In other words, multiple model cycles in a row, not 1. Thank you for that, matt. Also my pet peeve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 22 minutes ago, FallsLake said: With that look it's still perfect. I dare say anything stronger would suppress the storm way south. I tend to agree...that's a really good look to me on the NAM at 84...but it's NAM at 84. My bigger worry with this is always IF in early December that can over take the 925 temps. Seems to always screw folks from around GSO south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, msuwx said: Time for my semi-annual pet peeve post. One shift does not equal a “trend.” You need multiple, subsequent movements of something in the same direction for it to be a trend. In other words, multiple model cycles in a row, not 1. Matt's tha man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 29 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Yep, this is our hobby. It's like playing a board game where you roll the dice every 6 hours. It's almost just as fun to get virtual snow(or a bust) every 6-12 hours, and there's no shoveling. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: 6z GEFS Snow means for Chapel Hill: Down to zero whiffs. 7/20 show single digits but nothing below 3" 4/20 show 10-12" 9/20 show 12"+ Of those 9, 3 show 20"+ What is the GEFS mean for Dry Fork, VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, burgertime said: I tend to agree...that's a really good look to me on the NAM at 84...but it's NAM at 84. My bigger worry with this is always IF in early December that can over take the 925 temps. Seems to always screw folks from around GSO south. We need a Burger "BOOM" today! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 We can say what we want about the models but the below GFS run was from a week ago. Pretty good all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6z gfs has clt right on the rain snow line and in turn spit out these ridiculous numbers. i don't buy it though, i think we see a lot more sleet and a lot more rain than snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, msuwx said: Time for my semi-annual pet peeve post. One shift does not equal a “trend.” You need multiple, subsequent movements of something in the same direction for it to be a trend. In other words, multiple model cycles in a row, not 1. lol...amen. 5 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Thank you for that, matt. Also my pet peeve. Mine too...probably my top one. I understand it if someone is a noob but what's frustrating is you see people who have been around long enough to know better do it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, msuwx said: Time for my semi-annual pet peeve post. One shift does not equal a “trend.” You need multiple, subsequent movements of something in the same direction for it to be a trend. In other words, multiple model cycles in a row, not 1. This +1000 We are still a little over 3 days from the storm hitting, models are going to continue to oscillate north and south a bit for a while still. Ensembles are still the way to go this far out and they look nice for a very large portion of us. Breath people, you'd think some that have been on here for years would learn their lesson by now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, DopplerWx said: 6z gfs has clt right on the rain snow line and in turn spit out these ridiculous numbers. i don't buy it though, i think we see a lot more sleet and a lot more rain than snow. Almost reminds me of that February 2015 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Almost everyone NW of 85 looks to be in a better spot than they were 24 hours ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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